moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Sounds better, but rarely works out. ' I will ay, our past success at identifying the right guy to trade for and giving up packages that have been fair or clear wins for us, even in hindsight, is no guarantee of future success.
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4.55 is not bad for a 5th starter. That is my point. These days 4.55 is a #3-#4 on most teams and don't go 170 IP, either. Pivetta has given IP. he led the team in IP from 2021 to 2022 and was 28th in MLB in IP, and his ERA was 4.56. 4.56 ranked 11th out of 150 pitchers from 2021-2022. Yes, that is "bad," but we are comparing him to other 5th starters ot #2s and 3s. He does have a high hard hit % of 34%, which placed him at the bottom of the 4th tier out of 5 (119th out of 150.) His Line Drive% was 4oth best out of 150, however at 19.2%
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The Rays trade for a lot of their success stories on their staff. They draft a few real good ones, here and there, but not a ton. They drafted Price, long ago, and also Cobb, Snell and McClanahan but many of their other top pitchers were acquired: Top 12 fWAR pitchers in last 10 years: Chris Archer Blake Snell Davis Price Alex Cobb for Matt Garza Charlie Morton FA Jake Odorizzi for Jamir Shields & Wade Davis Tyler Glasnow (with Shane Baz & Austin Meadows) for Chris Archer Ryan Yarborough for Drew Smyly Drew Smyly for Price Drew Rasmussen for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards Corey Kluber FA They also have a knack at trading away good pitchers right before a steep decline. To me, I look at LAD, ATL and HOU as teams that churn our SP'er after SP'er.
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Pivetta's xFIP has been better than his ERA, every season. Is that what you were trying to say?
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My point was that if his ERA was the same as his xFIP, he'd be a top 5th starter, and you said "no." I never said they were equal.
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Very few teams seem to be able to do it at a sustained rate.
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The article I read does not definitively say that is what happened, but it sounded very believable. Maybe Bloom was afraid signing him would put him past the tax line, but it doesn't look like it to me, assuming Nate and not Kluber, but it would have put us very close to it. I'm not crying over losing Nate, just yet. More time is needed.
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It is a crude way of looking at it, and certainly several teams have better 5th and 6th starters than Pivetta, but I still think a 4.55 ERA would place a pitcher in the #2 to #4 slot range for maybe 20 teams. 4.55 would likely be better than all but 4-6 team's number 5's. Just a guess.
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I'm not even sure it should ever be considered, at all. The success rate is so small. Our success rate on trading for very good pitchers is much higher (Pedro, Schill, Beckett and Sale and Nate/Porcello.) I wouldn't call ERod an ace, and he was a prospect when we traded for him, but he is a top 5 Sox pitcher in fWAR since 2003. 2000>>> 8+ fWARs 1. Pedro 2. Lester 3. Beckett 4. Sale 5. Wake (longevity award) 6. Schilling 7. ERod 8. Buchholz 9. Porcello 10. Price 11. Lowe 12. Lackey 13. Nate .
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Take a look at all the MLB 5th starters. First of all, look at 2022, and you have to lower the IP to 80 to get a sample size of 150 pitchers (30 teams and 5 starters.) If the top 30 are #1s, 31-60 are #2's and so on... 2022 ERAs: #1- 1.75 to 2.94 #2- 2.99 to 3.55 #3- 3.58 to 4.19 #4- 4.23 to 4.90 (a 4.55 ERA would be a solid #4 SP'er) #5- 4.92 to 6.31 Then, consider Pivetta's durability and IP factor. At 4.55, he'd be a good #4.
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Yup. That has been my mantra.
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Just saying, I don't think he just sat on his hands waiting to swoop in on Kluber.
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I do wonder, if they even considered Luis Castillo.
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Are you sure there were no other offers or hopes for another one? If that's true, I find it hard to blame one other GM interested in such a great pitcher for not matching the Rangers. Are you sure, we just needed to match it? That 3rd year option looks pretty good.
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That certainly seems like a better strategy, but until we get that system in place, and I should have said "if," we'll have to find a way to add a solid pitcher or two. I'd hate to trade mayer, when we have such a big hole at SS. I'm not sure anyone else brings us an ace. Buying aces hardly ever works out.
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If his ERA equaled that 4.55 xFIP, he'd be one of baseball's best #5's. (I'm NOT for putting him in the rotation, as of now. He might not even be my #6 or 7, either.)
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In all fairness, his budget was not very much, the first 2 years, so it is not really a clear M.O., but he had a chance this past winter and could have signed a pitcher, instead of Story back in 2022. IMO, he better acquire one, soon, because I'm not ready to put all our eggs in our system producing pitching gems.
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Houck and Bello, both DD guys seem to be coming along, well. Whitlock and Wink we "developed" more by other systems, but Bloom did add them to ours before they reached the ML level. I was hoping Mata, Walter or Murphy could step it up in '23, but all have gone backwards. Drohan looks real good. E R-C might make an upward move, this year, as well as a couple others.
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No Drohan? Wonder how much Rafaela dropped.
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Agreed. We all knew it was our weakest link and by far, but the 4 pitchers I listed have been god awful, Had they just been this, we'd be in a WC slot, right now: 5.50 Kluber 5.25 Pivetta 4.50 Whitlock 4.00 Houck Those numbers might have been viewed as very conservative in March.
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No he isn't, but he has been a fine #5 from the time he joined the Sox, until April 14th, 2023, or his last 7 starts.
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We could use some "luck," now.
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He made attempts at Nate and Eflin and maybe more we never heard about.
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It might have had something to do with the player option year 3: 2025:$20M player option if Eovaldi 1) pitches 300 innings combined in 2023-24 or 2) finishes in the top 5 of the 2024 Cy Young vote or 3) finishes in top 7 of 2024 Cy Young vote and makes 2024 All Star team All of what you said does not mean playing closer to home did not matter at all. I guess he was lying, when he said "It means everything." Who wants liars on their team, anyway? LOL!
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I knew the Price deal was a gross overpay, but we needed an ace. badly, and he seemed to be a once or twice (Scherzer) in a decade kind of available pitcher, so I was okay with it. I liked the Sale signing and argued he was worth the money, even if he missed one full season due to injury. Obviously, he has missed more. Taking chances on aces is something I can stomach.
