moonslav59

So all the talk about us not being able to beat good teams or good pitchers is on hold for a while. 3-0 v DET (DEt is 7-8 vs rest of league) 1-0 v MIL (14-5 v rest) 3-1 v LAA (9-7 v rest) 2-1 v MN (10-7 v rest) 2-1 v BAL (11-5 v rest) 0-3 v PIT (11-7 vs rest) 0-4 v TBR (13-3 vs rest of league)

I've looked at the average offense by catchers for many years. It certainly is a lower average than any other position and way lower than some. That being said, the line between starting catcher and back-up is often blurry for many teams. To get a sample size of 60 catcher seasons over the last 2 years (30 teams x 2 seasons= 60 top samples) you have to lower the PAs to 300- by far the lowest of any position. Here is what I found: The top 30 samples range from a .710 OPS to .939 (Grandal '21). The 2022 Vazquez ranked 29th out of 60. The 2021 Vaz ranked 41st at .659. Combine 2021 and 2022 and raise the min PAs to 577 and you get a sample size of 30 catchers (1 per team.) Vaz places 17th out of 30 at .685. He's been average- not really above average. It is telling to see the bottom quartile cut off is .643. Ten catchers were at .600 or lower. On the larger scale, there are only 63 catchers with 1000+ PAs since 2014. Vaz is ranked 37th at .695. #30 is .707. #15 is .745.

On Vaz's offense: OPS+ 64 '14-'16 (385 PAs) 71 '17-'18 (614 PAs) 105 '19-'20 (710) 87 '21-'22 (924- some with HOU) In fairness, an OPS+ of about 90 is probably good for a catcher. Vaz has been a good MLB hitter among catchers, and he had some big hits along the way, but an 86 OPS+ over his career is not really all that good.

Both of our catchers are works in progress. It's a 21 game sample size. No definitive judgments should be made on that.

Playing way less games vs our own division should increase the chances of the ALE last place team to break that record. All ALE teams cannot make the playoffs, so we will have to pass at least one ALE team to make the show. It won't be easy, since 4 of the top 5 AL teams are from the ALE. Not even harmony has anything to say about the near complete ALE dominancy. The 4th place teams are 12-8. That's on pace for 108-54 records! 4 teams on pace for 108+ win seasons! All this being said, I still like our chances. I'm sticking to my belief that our SP'ing is not nearly as bad as it has looked. The rotation has already started to look better, and there is room for more, as well as chances that guys like Paxton, Mata or Walter, and of course Crawford might infuse some pluses, when needed. Since April 4th, some ERAs are not great, or even good, but some are vast improvements on what they were over the first 14 days of the season: 1.26 Crawford 2.03 Winckowski (not a starter but is 5th in IP over the last 14 days) 3.94 Houck (3.40 last 14 days) 4.43 Pivetta (just one bad start, all year) 4.50 Whitlock (showing great signs he is back from his injury) 5.40 Sale (needs some back-to-back good outings, starting now.) (7.36 Kluber is "weak link" that may need replacing after a few more starts.)

Develop not draft. Steal from other teams not draft.

Bleis

Whitlock

I'm still hoping they move Yoshida to the lead-off slot. Maybe it gets him thinking "get on base" not "hit a double." Devers second. Dugo fourth. The rest seems to be interchangeable. Kike seems to be warming up, so maybe.... vs RHP L Yoshida LF L Devers 3B R Turner DH L Dugo RF R Kike 2B L Casas 1B L Duran CF L McGuire C R Chang SS

1. Dugo RF 2. Devers 3B 3. Turner DH 4. Yoshida LF 5. Kike 2B 6. Casas 1B 7. McGuire C 8. Duran CF 9. Chang SS

Yes. Winner keeps it going.

McGuire starting, tonight. (I don't see a game thread.)

No name calling.

The rotation has gotten a lot of attention, too, as has SS, 2B and CF. Maybe the position most underrepresented, in terms of it being a very high need area is maybe 1B. We have sucked at 1B for way too long.

LOL. Nobody needs my permission to think or talk about anything they want and for as long as they want. They can also feel free to tell me they think I'm focusing on one area too much, too, and I think they have a few times.

I do agree that a catcher has more to do with wins than 2B. I also think the fact that only Wong has caught Houck and Whitlock, any numbers will be skewed. Let's see how all these numbers pan out over a full season.

I think pretty much everyone agrees. I would like to know, for a fact, what the lowest price Bogey would have accepted and when that was. I think this matters when trying to retroactively assign blame (not that you are doing so, here.) We may never know for sure what that number might have been, and even if Bogey ever discloses that amount, I'm not sure we can be certain, anyway. If the number was $160M/6, or $180M/7 or even $200M/8, I think most of us would think we missed a chance to keep Bogey at a reasonable cost, but again, we just don't know. The other thing is that while Bogey seems to be earning way more than $200M/8, when 8 years have passed, we may hold a different opinion. I wish we could have found a way to keep him. I wish we would have gotten more for him, once we knew we were going to lose him. (I'm thinking they must have known, but that's speculation, too.)

Then, how do we understand this? 8-7 w Arroyo 2-3 w others

It seems like Kluber starts out games doing okay, but then loses it after a coupe innings. (Note: some of these games, he allowed too many base-runners early, but they just didn't score.) Game 1: 3 IP 1 ER, then in the 4th- BB & HR. He loads the bases and is pulled. Kelly allows 2 of his runners to score. Game 2: 5 IP 1 ER (4H & 2BB w 7Ks vs PIT) Game 3: 4.1 IP w 0 ER, then he allows a run and leaves with 2 out and 2 on. Bleier allows both to score and then some. (vs Rays) Game 4: He lets up 3 in the first (BB, 2B, HR) then 4 in the 3rd (BB, HBP, 1B, HR)

The worst carry-over name is "The Utah Jazz," although the "LA Lakers" is puzzling.

It's not all that risky. You just lose the DH, if you are forced to or choose to move the DH to a position.

Indeed. People can also talk about why certain areas are talked about more than others, and that we feel the other areas are more pressing and deserving of discussion.

I have no issues with choosing Wong over McGuire. I had hopes McGuire would be the 60-70% catcher, but if Wong keeps getting better results, he should start more. Right from the start, I was okay with us not adding a catcher over the winter. Other areas still look like higher need areas, to me. I'm not sure why we seem to be spending more time, rcently, on catchers and not 1B, middle IF and the rotation.

Here are the Sox current fWAR team rankings by position: 3rd CF +1.3 (thanks to Duvall's start) 6th 3B +1.0 6th RF +1.0 11 Catcher 0.5 18 LF +0.2 22 SS -0.1 24 2B-0.3 25 DH -0.2 27 1B -0.4 _______________ 12 RP +0.7 26 Pitching +0.5 28 SP -0.2

I'm not sure Nomar was ever elite. I agree on Lugo. He declined after the knee injury (last 3 years of 4 years) Bogey is not above average on D in my book. He is among the bottom 2-3 on DRA and near average on UZR/150. The Fielding Bible never liked Bogey. Scutaro was not good. Renteria was good, but played hurt, for us. As things turned out, due sometimes to injury, 6 of our top 7 SSs by innings since 2001, were not plus on DRS and UZR/150. 4 of 7 were negative on both, while Bogey was very close to being neg-neg.