moonslav59

So, we need to add players who don't homer much but will in the playoffs? Name names.

We will already be paying him $10M for the buy out, and while I keep hearing people say he can sign somewhere else for $25-30M and make $35-40M combined, the reverse is true, too. If we pay him $35-40M, we'd be saving the $10M, so in a sense, he only costs us $25-30M more than if he walks. Tough call. I'd love him back, but I think Brez will see that replacing him with a full season of Crochet, Houck, Crawford and Oviedo will be enough, and the money would be better spent elsewhere. I think he walks. Where? Who knows? Maybe TOR or CWS? HOU might go all in on 2027- thinking their window is closing once Pena bolts.

Mead can play 3B, of course not close to as well as Durbin, but if we add a big bat at 2B (B Lowe? Chisholm?) maybe we can stomach the loss on 3B defense. Dubin could be traded as part of the deal to get a SS or 2Bman, or he could make an excellent utility infielder with Sogard traded or the second utility guy. (Trade Seigler and or Monasterio?) I think it's less complicated to just trade Arias plus others for a clearly better bat at SS. I must admit, I'm not 100% sold on all of the options, except de la Cruz. 2025-2026 wRC+ leaders at SS: 129 Pena (1 yr of control) 122 in '26 129 Seager (expensive 5 yrs and just 834 PAs/2 yrs) 111 in '26 125 Perdomo (doubt he will be traded) 124 de la Cruz (140 in 2026!) 124 Whitt (untradable) 124 Bichette (no thanks) 87 in '26 121 Abrams (might be my second choice) 136 in '26! 120 JP Crawford (133 in '26- sleeper? Nope!) 118 Lindor (expensive) 108 in '26 118 Neto (high K rate) 118 '25 and '26 109 Gunner Henderson (101 in '26) 104 Willy Adames (a salary dump w 5 yrs left) 98 in '26 103 Otto Lopez (113 in '26) (98 Monasterio, 94 Story) Ezequiel Duran was at 112 in 2026 w TEX If we signed Sato, we could get by with Arias/Story at SS. We could move Durbin to 2B and Mead to DH or trade Durbin. My wish list at SS: 1. de la Cruz (26 y/o) 30 HRs & 65 XBH 2. CJ Abrams (26 y/o) 33 HRs & 67 XBHs 3. Neto (25) 27 HRs & 63 XBHs (215 Ks!) 4. Otto Lopez (28) only 11 HRs & 52 XBHs but led league in hits. A .349 OBP and 34 SBs makes for a nice leadoff hitter. 5. Pena's one year of control would keep me from giving up Arias or Anthony for him. If we could get Yordan with him, or get an extension as part of the deal, maybe... Big risk: Seager is 32 and injury prone. 20 HRs & 36 XBHs in 436 PAs. Big risk: Lindor turns 33, soon. I have to pass, even if they take Story, Yoshida and KC for him. Big risk: Willy Adames is 31 and seemingly in decline. BTV has him way under water. I'm not sure if the Giants would trade 5 years of high cost for Story, Yoshida & KC, but the Sox would save a lot on the 2027 tax line. They'd have to hope he can rebound. He had 21 HRs and 46 XBHs in 2026, but 30 & 54 in 2025 and 32 & 55 in '24. Anyone else?

Worst on "offense:" not worst overall. A lot depends on who plays SS and 2B, but we could say: SS: Arias/Story (Monasterio/Cheng) 2B: Mead/Story (Sogard/Seigler/Romy) I have to give the edge to 2B, but I realize I am projecting a lot from Mead's half season in 2026. My projections on Story are worse. My projections for Arias in year one on offense is not as high as Mead or even Sogard/Seigler/Romy. LF/DH is the only one close to SS. Whichever one Anthony does not play has major questions, but not so much on offense. LF: Duran is a hug question, and I project he's gone, so I have Anthony in LF, unless we sign Suzuki or add an OF bat. Agreed: White/Jones/Duran/KC could be worse on offense than Arias/Story at SS. DH: With Anthony if LF, I like numerous DH platoons on offense over Arias/Story: Gasper- Jones Sogard- Romy These platoons look fine, to me, but only if we add a big bat at SS. Also, I could even see Brannon doing better than Arias on offense.

Now, if you go by BTV and look at the values of prospects we traded away, it looks very scary: (second number is total value w/o salary.) 41 Meidroth (94) 33 Br Montgomery (47) 31 Eyanson (N/A) 27 Azocar (N/A) 23 Early (42) 20 Mayer (20) 19 Priester (30) 18 Harrison (30) 16 Drohan (52) 14 B Clarke (N/A) 10 Dobbins (21) 9 Teel (9) 6 Sandlin (15) 6 Witherspoon (N/A) 6 Fajardo (N/A) 3 Jh Garcia (3) 2 DHam (6) B Jordan (5) 1 Travieso (N/A) 0 Fitts (0) Aita (N/A) -6 Hicks (2) -25 Devers (171) ___________________ Sox Values 53 Crochet (210) 24 Bennett (73) 13 Rutschman (22) 11 Mead (27) 5 Gutierrez (N/A) 4 Contreras (37) 4 Miller (11) 1 Seigler (3) 3 Holobetz, 2 Samaniego, 1 Jackson, 1 Heyman, 1 Ziehl, 1 YRod, 0 Ro Hernandez -1 Jones (1) -2 Monasterio (2)

The previous format means the one right before this one. I did not say formatS. 2012-2021 had 2 wild card teams play a single game elimination. In both 2025 and 2026, we were the #2 WC team. Simple observation.

Here are the prospects Brez traded away and their ranking at the time or last ranking before graduating: 2 Eyanson+ 3 Witherspoon +6 Azocar for Rutschman 2 Mayer (stock had fallen significantly) for Miller & Gutierrez- currently ranked #14. 3 Early for Mead 4 Perales for #4 Jake Bennett (just graduated & 6 years of control) 4 Teel, 5 Montgomery, 8 Meidroth & 18 Wikelman for Crochet 6 Jh Garcia & 20 Travieso for Oviedo, 19 Samaniego & 54 A Guzman 8 Fitts (graduated) + 8 B Clarke for Sonny Gray + a chunk of cash 12 Dobbins (graduated) + 10 Fajardo + Aita for Contreras + Cash 12 Sandlin + Hicks for #21 Ziehl 15 Drohan + Harrison (graduated) + DHam for Durbin, Monasterio & Seigler 19 Uberstine for Eli White 25 Elmer Rodriguez for Narvaez (had recently graduated with Yanks) Priester had graduated before coming to Boston, but I'll include him as we got prospects for him. We traded him for #9 Holobetz + #60 YRod. Hoppe for #28 Luke Heyman Grissom for #29 I Jackson Devers for Harrison, Hicks, Tibbs & J Bello This is a ton of trades and a ton of prospects going out the door. The vast majority of the prospects have yet to even crack the majors, but the expectation is some will do well to very well. Many of the "throw-in" types have done well, like Meidroth & Drohan. I mentioned the graduated prospects to highlight the younger players traded and acquired beyond just prospects. It's interesting to note how much we hear about prospects & players we traded away doing well, but how about the players and prospects we got back? The vets we got are not easily forgotten: Crochet, Gray, Contreras, Mead, Rutschman, Durbin & Miller. (Seigler, Monasterio & Oviedo,) but we also got some prospects back: 4. Bennett (wanna trade him back for Perales?) 9. Holobetz 14. Carlos Gutierrez 19. Samaniego 21. Ziehl 28. Heyman 29. Jackson 54. A Guzman 60. YRod In no way am I trying to say this prospect list matches what we gave up, but we did add some young players and prospects. Crochet was 25 when we got him, then we extended him. His recent injury casts a shadow on that deal and extension, but trading a bunch of prospects for a 25 year old pitcher who will be controlled for 7 years is not a deal I'm gonna slam. The Rutschman deal looks scary as hell, even if we extend him at a reasonable amount. I like the Mead, Contreras, Gray and Miller deals. The Durbin deal looks sketchy, if Drohan & Harrison keep doing well, but we felt the same way about the Priester deal, and now no complaints. I'm happy with the overall results of Brez trades. There are other areas to criticize him on that seem more justified, but not the trades.

He traded Tolle, Roman, Rafaela, Arias and Gonzales? When? The team is way better than it was at the end of 2023. While I agree that trading so many top prospects better yield results, this team is set up for a 3-5 year run, if we can add 1-2 major pieces. I'm sure you're against trading Arias and others for a stud SS, but that might be all this team needs. Some of the prospects we traded away have done well, over the short term, but the jury is still out. The funny part about this is that it's mostly not the top prospects we traded that have done well out of the gate, it's the Drohans, Harrisons and Meidroths. When those guys were traded, nobody blinked an eye.

While true, we'd have still made the playoffs under the previous format.

Take out the "if" on Duran. He's toast.

You may not agree with my position, but I have explained it several times. 1. IMO, we need to greatly upgrade one position on offense, this winter. Maybe since you disagree, you don't follow my next point. 2. The SS position will be projected as our worst OPS slot on the team. That should be beyond debate. 3. It is common practice to try and upgrade your worst slot. Now, I get the fact that SS will probably not be the worst fWAR slot on the team (by ranking) due to plus defense from Arias, and maybe LF/DH or 3B might be better slots to look at, but in terms of offense, revisiting talks with teams with much better offensive SSs makes sense.

True nuff, and if JH would have supplemented those deals with more than just Suarez, maybe we'd be much better. I like the core, but if we don't do something with it, we'll have wasted all those prospect trades. We have a lot of question marks, once again, and secondary options if a few fail, but we can't handle the decline by nearly every top PA player again next year.

To me, SS is the slot we could see the largest upgrade on offense (over Arias/Story) and Defense (over Story/Monasterio.) I'm not locked into that slot as being "the one." I love plus SS defense and Arias looks real good. If he can give us a .700 OPS year one and show improvement after that, he'll not be out weakest WAR player in 2027. DH is another slot, but I hate spending money or prospects on a DH, and I kinda like all the options we have... some nice platoons. Next is 3B, but I'm fully convinced Brez likes what he got last winter, and if he can hit his second half OPS all year, he might be over .800.

Gotta think they revisit some of those SS talks, this winter.

Nate Lowe comes through.

That doesn't mean the trades were the reason.

True, and while BTV has him ay $9M, I think the Reds value him more highly. Maybe they view Arias as close enough. Arias & Anthony for DLC? Maybe add Holobetz?

It would take some creative financing to get JH to agree. Deferred money. Dumping some partial contract costs. Not signing anyone else. Even then, I'm doubtful JH goes along.

BTV just tries to identify a player/prospect trade value in dollars. They do not even attempt to investigate what teams need or want. If we take their numbers and apply it to MLB talent only, it would be a difficult mix to offer, and maybe that's one reason it never happened. (Plus, the Sox were looking at the 2026 playoffs not just the future.) de la Cruz is worth 94. 72 Tolle 70 Rafaela 64 Arias ("a suspect") 52 Crochet 34 Durbin 33 Abreu 24 Bennett 14 Suarez 11 Slaten & Mead 10 Sogard 9 Anthony In terms of just numbers, which is all BTV is about... Rafaela + Bennett is equal (Maybe we later sign Suzuki?) Crochet, Durbin & Slaten is equal. Abreu, Durbin & Bennett falls a little short. If they want Arias, it could be for him, Bennett & Sogard. I'm sure Cincy says no to that one. Probably no match, here.

Hard to know. MLBTR projected $180M/8 for Murakami, and he got $34M/2,

Some BTV numbers: 76 Arias 27 Gonzales 20 Primera 13 Valera 11 Soto, Slaten & Delzine 10 Sogard 5 Cespedes 4 Duran 3 Holobetz ___________________ SS Targets: (control years) 220 Whitt (4) 93 de la Cruz (3) 54 Montgomery (5 yrs) 53 Sanoja (5 yrs) or 44 Otto Lopes (3) 51 Neto ( 3yrs) 47 Henderson (2 yrs) 40 Genao (5 yrs) 33 Masyn Winn (3) 31 Culpepper (5) 31 Cole Young (5) 30 Pena (1 yr) 29 Abrams (2) -29 Lindor (5) -42 Seager (5) -49 Willy Adames (5) How about Story, Yoshida, KC + Duran? ___________ 64 Wood (4 yrs) 51 Kurtz (4) & 26 Langeliers (2) 36 Y Alvarez (2) 23 Goodman (3) 9 Wm Contreras (1)

Squandered is Crochet, Contreras, Mead, Gray, Bennett, AR and Durbin?

I know you are not saying Arias will likely be a bust, even if just year one, and I agree. I'm a huge fan of defense, especially at SS and Catcher, but the need for a major gain in offense is too big to ignore. Of all the positions- yes POSITIONS- we can try to upgrade, SS looks like the lowest projected OPS. The fact that some major bat SSs have been discussed as trade targets gets me thinking the likelihood we sign a big bat is low, so maybe this is the only way we can do it. Arias, alone, will not get de la Cruz or Abrams, and I hope we don't have to include Justin Gonzalez, but it might take him to get who we want. Throwing in Monasterio or Seigler will probably not move any needles, but Sogard might. Of course, I'd offer Duran, but I'm not sure more than 2-3 GMs are even interested. BTV accepts Arias & Gonzales for de la Cruz I'd prefer this one: Arias, Valera, Delzine & Soto, but I doubt CIN says yes. BTV accepts Arias and Gonzales for Abrams and Woos, but I have to laugh that one off. They have Abrams worth about $29M- less than half the Arias value. They accept Gonzales & Holobetz. I'd try Valera, Delzine and Duran, which BTV accepts.

I kinda answered this in my last post. Doing nothing to improve the offense and slotting Arias over Story at SS will not help the offense, but you have to know Story will not get more than 400+ PAs in 2027, no matter what team he plays on. (Says the guy that was done with Sale.)

I realize this is not just about a line-by-line comparison to 2026, but the Sox SS position had 9 Hrs and a .350 SLG. In those terms, Arias may improve the SS power, but yes, Story has more power. He led the Sox in HRs and RBI in 2025. I'm fine with Arias is we add Sato or Suzuki. I'd be fine with trading Arias and some other prospects for Abrams or de la Cruz.