moonslav59

He's not a lock. I just wonder why you seem to hold a player's recent half season against them, when they do poorly. I realize his history beforehand is way out of whack with his first half of 2026, and that might be different from other examples you have cited half season or less sample sizes to make judgements. Maybe I'm super high on him because we basically need him to be a near .850 guy for 2027- all of the season. I guess Anthony could give us that. Maybe a bust out year by Abreu could approach that. I don't see AR getting back up near that number again. I don't even think Duran can get to .750, so I'm not going down that rabbit hole. Story's last big year was .740. Yoshida- .770'ish. I've been talking Casas more than anyone else, because he has a better shot than AR, Duran, Story and Yoshida combined at nearing .850 in 2027. There are just too many questions, and that's why I want DLC, Abrams, Sato or Suzuki.

The odds are close to 1% we shed both. We'd have to pay $13-14M of the $18M owed to Yoshida. We owe Story $30M counting the $5M buyout, so we'd have to pay $23-$25M of that to shed him for nothing more than a single A promise. Trading both might net us $9-10M. Trading Duran could bring that up to $20M. I don't see a 40 man roster crunch even keeping 2 of these guys, but shedding all 3 solves some 26 man roster squeezes and allows for us to add a couple big plusses and a couple guys we might have had to DFA or leave exposed to Rule 5. (Moran, White, Jones and eaton are out of options, and Wehunt, Brannon & Jo garcia are Rule 5's.)

Then, we woke up. While I'd do the Arias + Abreu for DLC deal, it does lessen the addition by subtracting Abreu. Wilyer's .780 three year OPS is best on the Sox. We'd have to sign Suzuki or Sato to gain in the OF after losing Abreu. Arias + Durbin and maybe Valera would be less of a hit to the offense, as Mead at 3B, although a big loss on D, should be a plus on O at 3B, too. The issue here would be Story at SS and Sogard/Romy/Seigler at 2B. Again, a sato add would improve our infield offense by leaps and bounds.

Pablo Sandoval after his great playoff numbers with the Giants.

So many players are borderline MLB/AAA, so adding 60 (90 if they go to a 29 man roster and 120 if they go to 30) would get a lot of players voting yes on almost any deal. Lowering control years/arb years would get a lot of players' attention. Having a significant floor takes the edge off a soft/hard cap aversion.

One downside to a 30 man roster is adding more time to games as 2 more RP'ers will be used nearly every game.

You probably wanted Pablito, too.

Granted, Cora and Tracy kept playing Duran despite being a blackhole, but we didn't need to do it. The 2023 team only 7 batters with 100+ OPS+ and 150+ PAs. Of our 9 batters with 320+ PAs, Kike was at 62 and Wong was at 78. Verdugo as at 98. The whole bench (5 players with 150-250 PAs) none were over 99. Brez was handed a team with 3 blackholes and the leading OPS+ guy was Casas at 130. Turner was 3rd and Duvall 4th. The 2022 team had 2 guys under 84. (Kike & Dalbec) The next 4 were all between 54 and 89. The leader was Devers at 143 and second was Bogey at 131, JD was 117 and Vaz was 108. Story was 102 & Verdugo 101.

I only used the term modern in response to the "folklore" comment. If nine good hitters is modern, then you should be praising Brez for eliminating the blackholes recent Sox teams often had 2-3 of. We had nine batters with a 100 OPS+ or better, not counting Jones and Rogers, of course. Also, not counting Mead's 135 and AR who had a 2026 OPS+ of 109, since he was 92 w BOS. 2026 Sox 153 Contreras 135 Mead 132 Gasper 117 Abreu 113 Rafaela 111 Yoshida 109 AR 108 Anthony 106 Sogard + 105 Seigler (450 PAs) 101 Durbin Oh my, that's 11 or 12! The Dodgers had 9 players over 100 OPS+ with 8 at 108+ (same as Sox counting Gasper, but LAD is counting Rushing & Smith with 253 & 276 PAs) MIL had 8. Only 7 at 108+ The Rays had 7. Only 6 at 108+ ATL had 4 (all between 118 and 124) We have the balance. We need the stud. Stick to one lane.

While no players are ever locks on next year's production levels and everyone has some kind of question, we seem to have more than our fair share of giant questionable players. Many have very high upside potential or even proven big years in recent history, but still, way too many huge questions. Anthony's health. Willson's age. Mead's numbers before his last half season. Story's health and ability come close to 2025 production. Casas might not even be mentioned by many, as he's been written off by most. AR's future, including a possible extension. Rafaela- when will the continued improvement end or reverse? Romy, Gasper, Sogard and others have obvious questions. Some are about them even being any good anymore. Crochet might be #1 on this list. Bello is close to #2 or 3. Houck, Crawford, Oviedo. Chapman's age. Bennett a fluke? The rest of the pen. Farm pitching depth. KC No big questions: Durbin & Abreu seem predictable. Suarez & Whitlock. I gotta think we'd feel better with someone like de la Cruz joining the no big question group.

I don't mind upgrading on Durbin, but I see 2 slots more deserving of upgrades- considering offense as a major aspect of any upgrade. SS DH/LF (non Anthony slot)

Nope. The modern was is the #1 is OBP and the #2 is your best all around. Yes, power and XBH, but also OBP. He's not your best or your #2 with a .305 OBP.

I know defense doesn't count for you as much as most of us, but Mead at 3B is scary. Sogard/Monasterio is too. Arias & Durbin for DLC. Sign Sato and call it a day. 1. Anthony LF 2. Mead DH/2B 3. Sato 3B 4. DLC SS 5. Contreras 1B 6. Abreu RF 7. Rutschman C 8. Yoshida DH/ Story 2B 9. Rafaela CF

Lots of homers and XBHs can make up for high K rates, too, but it gets sketchy. Here are the best OPS numbers by the lowest BB/K players in MLB the last 2 years (600+ PAs) BB/K Player OPS 0.16 Harris II .744 0.17 Story .706 0.19 Moniak .792 0.20 Carpenter .754 0.21 Rafaela .736 (GG helps) 0.23 Dingler .750 0.23 C Schmidt .749 0.24 Goodman .841 (playing in COL helps) Only .750+ listed from here... 0.25 H Bader .752 0.27 E Suarez .788 0,28 J Merrill .756 0.28 J Pena .822 (might be the only true exception) 0.28 Neto .788 (maybe the second one?) 0.29 Buxton .857 (can't stay on the field) 0.29 L Garcia .767 Only .800+ listed from 0.30... 0.30 BLowe .806 0.30 Laureano .798 (close enough 0.33 R Greene .824 0.33 PCA .859 (likely MVP) 0.35 Stowers .847 0.37 Willson .844 0.39 DLC .825 (I'll take him) 0.39 Arozarena .811 The first player with a higher OPS than all these guys is Alonso at 0.41 and .878. There are some good hitters under 0.40.

Ummm, I didn't use just OPS. I listed HRs, and many times have used runs scored- just not this time. OBP and SLG are both large drivers in having a good offense. I know adding the two equally is not perfect as some parts get duplicated while others get less attention that they deserve, but to me, it tells a better story than any other singular offensive stat/metric. HRs alone doesn't RBIs alone doesn't BA doesnt. OBP is better than any above and so is SLG. Both those stats miss the PA totals so can be deceptive. A 1.000 OPS guy with 300 PAs is not as helpful as a 600 PA guy with 30 HRs and 100 RBI. I get that. To me OPS and wRC+ are the two best stats for offense, but not many understand wRC+, so I avoid using it much. IMO, WAR is the best single number that can be used to evaluate the total value of a player. Personally, I like averaging bWAR with fWAR, but that takes too much time and effort.

I did mention the Dodgers and gave about the same numbers you just gave.

The only thing I can find to cling to on Story is if he plays 2B and can somehow hit like 2025, especially his last 400 PAs of '25. That wasn't that long ago, and 34 years old isn't always the end of good seasons. That being said, I'd trade him for whatever we can get. Maybe some GM sees this as worth a shot, if he only has to pay $4-7M.

I've been super high on acquired players before and been let down, and I know you don't value his last half season of his career like you seem to value & devalue other shorter samples, but I think this guy will turn heads, and I mean as they watch dingers fly out everywhere.

True. It goes way beyond comedy.

Nobody can say Brez is not bold with trades, willing to trade top prospects, trade for players making a lot of money or willing to trade top players. He's the opposite of Bloom on all this, and then add the willingness to make in-season/deadline deals. Nobody can convince me Brez had the ability to spend way more than he has to date. It's JH & Co. that set the seasonal player payroll budgets with maybe a little wiggle room and the need for approval for anything significantly beyond the wiggle room allowed. The trading of Devers and the by-far largest contract ever given to a Sox player pre-undid much of what we spent afterwards, but some norms (some just Bloom norms) were broken: 1. No past Sox GM (for good or bad) extended so many prospects as Brez: $130/8 Anthony + option, $60M/8 KC + 2 options (better he than Mayer, IMO,) $55M/6 Bello + option & $50M/8 Rafaela (now looks pretty damn good.) 2. Highest AAV ever given to a Sox player: Bregman for 2025. 3. $300M given to two pitchers with contracts starting in the same year (Crochet ext $170M '26-'31 & Suarez $130M '26-'30 w option.) 4. Most money ever paid to a single RP'er. (Chapman: $36.75M/3) Breaking the Bloom trends: 1. Making major summer deals just about every year. 2. Signing 3 pitchers to double the AAV Bloom ever signed; Crochet, Suarez and Buehler. 3. Daring to trade top prospects. I think Bloom's highest was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. Like it or not, this is kinda eye-opening change.

This is meant for the posters who think we need power and stud bats to win, but anyone can feel free to pitch-in: (...Oh wait... that's me, too!) On paper, do these numbers satisfy the idea that this team's offense is "good enough?" Top 9 batters in order by most PAs: (OPS, HRs) .816, 21 .758 18 .874, 26 .837, 25 .771, 11 .692, 12 .730. 9 .650 4 .614, 4 That's 3 guys under .693 and 4 under .730. Nobody with 30+ Hrs or even more than 26. (I will add that all of these top 5 players had OBPs above .341.) This is the Brewers- the team with the most wins. ______________________ .885, 42 .805, 22 .792, 22 .689, 0 .628, 15 .607, 2 .704, 10 .728, 11 .680, 6 Imagine the Sox having 4 of their top 9 batters under .690, 5 under .705 and 6 under .730. Yes, they had a big bopper, but also 3 guys with a total of 8 HRs and two others with 22 combined. These are the Rays top 9 batters. CLE had a 42 HR batter and a couple w 22 HRs, but the other 6 had 15 or less, 5 with 11 or less and 3 with 8 HRs combined! The team about to be swept had a 30 HR player and 6 guys with 16-29 HRs. Their 8-9 PA players had 18 HRs combined. No power outages on this team. They had no top 9 or even 10 batters with an OPS below .714. Only 2 of their top 10 batters had an OPS below .780. Of course bats and bopper bats help win rings, but it's not the only thing.

Duran is the easiest starting place since he can simply be non tendered or signed and traded with a pre-agreed trade partner. If Duran is gone, that locks Anthony into LF and allows Mead to DH. That would leave Story as competition for 2B, a second base platoon and as the primary back-up at SS. That might have more value than what we get in trade for him (along with a boatload of cash.) I do see your point and don't disagree. We have too many players holding onto roster slots based on some hope, often faint, they can or will return so some portion of their past greatness or goodness. We do need to weed them out- maybe not all of them, but some. Here I am saying this and advocating starting the season with Casas on the 40- assuming he has no new injuries or the current one looks like a career-ender. I'm also for keeping Romy, while several sites are saying he should be non-tendered. I'm also for adding Brannon and or Jo Garcia to the 40, along with Wehunt as R5 protectees. I did the math: there is room for all of this, as long as we shed Duran, 2 from Eaton, Jones & White (all out of options) and some scrub pitchers like Burgos, Olds and maybe a couple more. (Moran is out of options and may/should be traded.) I'd be fine trading Duran, Story and Yoshida. I've wanted this for years. I'd do it to save the $11M for Duran and maybe another $9M from Story + Yoshida's cost paid by the receiving teams. That's $20M we can add to whatever the winter budget is and maybe get Sato or Suzuki.

Agreed, but lock out or not, he will not be added to the 40, until at least ST'ing, when we put our first player on the 60 to open up a slot. We have too many players without options, so some will eventually be traded or DFA'd from the 40 since they will not be on the 26 day one. Keeping Arias off the 40 until the moment we will put him on the 26 to play in the next week will be what happens.

Well said. I'd take Gunner in an instant. The O's are not known for making good calls in their F.O.

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