moonslav59

Me, too. No way I cut Casas loose to keep La Sorsa on the 40. (I can name 7-8 others.)

Thinks about Smokey Joe. He pitched as well as these Sox have played in the last 35 games! ALL YEAR LONG!

This where we seem to differ. My suggested off might be $56M/3 with a $2M buyout option making it $58M/3 or $42M/2 with a $2M buyout option year, making it $44M/2. He will certainly say no. Anything more and I'll view him as likely underwater. I do share the optimism that he could be the best overall Catcher in MLB, but he hasn't been for 2+ years, so I need to see it to pay for it. Of course, if he shows it, his extension demand goes way up.... even beyond your offer, so I see why you'd offer that. I would not.

I have not written Story off. I'm not convinced on Sogard and Seigler. I'm still skeptical on Monasterio. I like IKF, but he needs to rehab, too. It's Story's defense that worries me most, and apparently Monasterio is not a plus at SS, either, but he seems better than Story on D, and so far he's hitting better than I expect Story to hit after a rehab stint. That could change. Now, talk to be about 2B with no Mead of DH vs LHPs, and Story is in the running, but again, he needs to show something to win the job. He may only need to hit .700 or .725 to be better than who we got on the day he's ready for the promo/

Exactly, and that was an indicator that we were better than a team 12 under .500. It was more of an indicator of who the team was and would be than the runs scored ranking indicated. We were still 29th in runs scored on 6/26. The runs scored ranking indicated we sucked and likely would keep sucking. The run differential indicated a better team. Not 30-5, but better.

This makes sense, but there is a chance the current play is NOT "far above their level," and some of these guys might very well be coming into their own true selves. Mona could drop off a little and still be our best option at SS for the rest of 2026 or until we take the Arias plunge. Monasterio has hit well for two straight seasons. While a 363 PA sample size does not prove anything in MLB, it's not a small sample size. Monasterio has a 115 OP+ in this sample. We all hope Story can hit like 2025, again, right? hat was a 105 OPS+. Now, if Story can hit like he did the end of 2025 (82 games and 346 PAs) that's another story (pun intended.) He hit .838 to end the season with 15 HRs, which is like 30 over 162 games. There is a decent chance this is NOT fluke hitting by Monasterio. Okay, you say these numbers are fueled by a .991 OPS over his last 7 games, and that is unsustainable. Sure, I agree, but Story's nice stretch was also fueled by a couple hot streaks, too. (BTW, Mona is at 1.161 in the last 17 gms) He was at .629 after his first 56 games- a much larger sample size. Roll with the hot bat. Call up Arias, if he cools off too much. Play the hottest hand at 2B or give Story a shot, when he's ready. (Story could also platoon with Yoshida at DH.)

I'm not worried about the 26th slot. Or 27th, after rosters expand by 1 everyday player in Sept. I'd prefer Story over Sogard or Jones. I'm worried about making Story the FT SS. I'd have issues with FT 2Bman, too, but at least that would be better.

I remember trying to say Gray was closer to a number #1 than a #3, but I don't think I convinced any of the anti-WAR posters to change their mind. I will say, at the time, I hoped we'd gotten someone better, but then we signed Suarez after the Bregman idea went poof.

Yes, the increase in runs scored changed the run differential to the plus side. Had our pitching went to 29th ranked, we wouldnt be 30-5, either. Run differential is a better indicator than just runs scored. The data supports this.

I said that on the prospects thread, and you said he should play more in AAA before promoting him. Let's hope the timing of Mona's drop off matches with Arias's readiness. Personally, I don't think a week or month more is needed for Arias, but I'm fine with riding Mona. Seigler is doing well, but I'd prefer Arias at SS and Mona-Seigler-Sogard at 2B.

Until Casas gets Arthroscopic brain surgery, he may never return.

Right now, I don't see extending him as a plus, unless it is at a decent discount and just 1-2 years. 3 years would have to be at a deep discount, and I doubt he'd do it. Most players believe in themselves. If they didn't, they wouldnt have gotten this far. I don't think he'd take what I'd suggest we offer, so to me, any extension would not be a plus. I'm still not convinced this was a good trade, except it should probably help for 2 playoff cycles. Key word "should." I'm not convinced Narvaez is as bad as he looked this year. I might take the known 2025 Narvaez vs the unknown Rutschman, but of course that is not the choice. Now, add Eyanson, Witherspoon and Azocar to the "choice" and that extended future plus the Narvaez portion makes me think the trade is almost certainly bad for the 2028>>> future, probably good/better for 2026 and maybe better for 2027, too. Extending Rut might change the 2028 equation, but as of now that's totally unknown, because we cannot be sure Rut can hit well again. He showed some earlier this season, so we can hope all we want, but should we expect it?

To me, Story should not play SS. He can be considered for 2B or DH only after he has shown he can hit more like the last 81 games of 2025 than before that. How does he prove he can? 1. He needs to hit well in rehba. 2. Assuming he is promoted to the 26, he can start by platooning at DH and 2B. He'll get a few ABs vs RHPs. Assess his numbers and hard hit/ swing and miss rates. 3. He should not be handed any FT role, unless someone gets hurt or is doing badly.

You stated being last in runs scored was why we were in last place, and you weren't wrong. The run differential indicated we were not playing like a last place team and suggested maybe we weren't that bad. It suggested we may do better going forward if we kept the same differential or improved on it. Certain indicators have been proven to better match with W-Ls than just looking at runs scored (offense.) Defense and pitching matters too, and thos eareas indicated we were better than 29th in MLB. The longer sample size brought us closer to what earlier indicators suggested. This in no way diminishes the idea that Wins and Losses matter most. It just adds context.

I'm not so sure extending Rut will be a good thing. I agree with Hitch on no hurrying to do so, unless it's for 1-2 years or 3 at a discount rate.

He's likely better than Jones. He's a RHB. We may find someone better, but I agree. He'd be fine as the 4th OFer.

Agreed. They will almost certainly start Story at SS, after he rehabs and plays a few games part time. The only way Monasterio keeps the job is if he gets his OPS over .800 and doesn't look horrible on D. I think the Sox feel Story is still good on D- kinda like Devers thinking he was good on D. Head-scratcher.

"Worse" than the 2025-2026 Story?

Thank you for this. I had meant to post his numbers next to Monasterio's, but forgot.

We are talking about what normally or better indicates W-L records: Runs scored vs Run differential Obviously, we were not as bad as our W-L record indicated or as our runs scored indicated. We came back closer to the mean. The run diff says we should be 65-48, and we are now 62-51. Larger sample size now, and... We are 20th in runs scored. We are 6th in tun differential. We have the 7th best record in MLB. Which stat is closer to W-L indication? On June 24th, we were 29th in runs scored, 16th in run differential and 29th in record, so it looked like runs scored was "the accurate" indicator of who we were, but it turned out to be wrong, when the sample size lengthened.

Nobody though 30-5, for sure. One June 24th, our run differential was -7, so some felt we were maybe a ner .500 team on paper, but way below in wins. Thinking we might play .500 or better ball for the rest of the season was not an insane reach, but yes, 30-5 was expected by nobody. 20-10 was pushing it. 18-12 was likely best case scenario thinking.

He's actually looks pretty good on D by the eye test, but the metrics say "meh" at best and "yuck" at worst. at SS -1 DRS (-4 career) -6 OAA (-7 career)

I disagree. Run differential is the leading indicator of W-L, not just one side of the runs scored vs runs allowed.

They had a run differential of -7 on June 24th and were the worst team in the AL. That's kinda hard to understand, when about half the teams had worse than that. Yes, the offense, lack of HRs and Crochet/Bello stinking up their starts were all major factors in that awful start, I don't think we were as bad as the record indicated. Nobody is 30-5 good over a full season, so we are somewhere in between.

Was it a mistake to not trade Early and Tolle for Joe Ryan?