moonslav59

Re-visiting the Catcher-Pitcher dynamics on the Sox in 2023. Bello w Wong 3.27 ERA/.727 OPSA (321 PAs) w McGuire 4.05/.764 (256) Pivetta w Wong 3.38 ERA/.639 OPSA (280 PAs) w McGuire 6.36/ .881 (211) Crawford w Wong 4.89 ERA/.767 OPSA (301 PAs) W McGuire 2.81 ERA/.481 (98) Paxton w Wong 4.58 ERA/.724 OPSA (316 PAs) w McGuire 4.70 ERA/.846 (73) Houck w Wong 5.21 ERA/.734 OPSA (329 PAs) w McGuire 4.91 ERA/.833 (48) Sale w Wong 3.31 ERA/ .641 OPSA (284 PAs) w McGuire 11.25 ERA/ 1.061 (64) Major unbalanced samples Wink w Wong 3.56 ERA/.751 OPSA (181 PAs) w McGuire 1.42 ERA/ ,619 (111) Whitlock w Wong 5.52 ERA/.921 OPSA (198 PAs) w McGuire 5.40 ERA/.734 (70) Kluber w. Wong 6.00 ERA/.918 OPSA (51 PAs) w McGuire 7.33 ERA/.982 (206) Major Unbalanced sample sizes Martin w Wong 1.36 ERA/.615 (129 PAs) w McGuire 0.73 ERA/.350 (44) Jansen w Wong 3.86 ERA/ .743 (132 PAs) w McGuire 2.08 ERA/.487 (47) Some sample sizes are rather small and or lop-sided. Judge for yourself. (I highlighted in red the better numbers and left some in black, if the sample sizes were more than 4:1 PAs ratios.)

1. Verdugo RF 2. Devers 3B 3. Turner DH 4. Casas 1B 5. Yoshida LF 6. Story SS 7. Abreu CF 8. Valdez 2B 9. Wong C

I think we can count on more innings from Bello in 2024, and he has been pretty good with giving us 4 or more IP in every starts, after his first one. 23 GD After game 1: 6.2 to 7: 8 times 6: 7 times (over half were 6 or more) 4.2 to 5.2: 6 times 4.0 IP: 2 times Now, we just need 4 more.

I'm not arguing our pitching sucked. It has improved, especially the pen, but it has sucked. Rebuilding teams often have sucky pitching. It's not an excuse: it's a description of facts.

Call it whatever you want. None of us know what the plan has been or will be. If the organization decided to build up the foundation before spending money or prospects on pitching, then I guess it is an excuse, and maybe even a valid one for Bloom but maybe not those who made that choice. If the choice was all or mostly on Bloom, then he deserves the blame, of if it ends up working, the credit. IMO, we were not an ace away from top contention, on paper, in any year under Bloom, so looking at the best way to plan for 4 years or more is a context that can be debated from all sides. Look, I'm always for adding to the top of the rotation. It would have been more fun watching the Sox over the last 4 years had we had decent rotations (and pens in 2020-2022.) I'm just not sold on the idea that the correct order for a 4-5 year plan is to start with pitching. By the time we reach the "window" the pitching would be in decline. Not allowing for a complete teardown and rebuild only complicates the rebuild, too. It's not a simple situation to judge, IMO. I fully understand why and how others can and do judge harshly.

Okay. That's what I was asking. I just now Googled it and found the SI article.

Yes, he has sucked, for the most part, at building up the rotation, but he has never spent large and long on one. You get what you pay for, and spending $10M/1 will always be a crapshoot. To me, there are two aspects that make me hold off a total Bloom bashing on the rotation. 1. If the team plan was to wait until we had a foundation to spend big on pitching, and it was not "Bloom's call," then I think we should see what happens, this winter. If it was all his doing, I'm with you, although I do see some logic in waiting to add the SP'ers last. 2. When you choose to spend about $10M on SP'ers, your expectations should not be great. $6M/1 Perez $5M/1 Perez $10M/1 Richards $7M/1 Wacha $5M/1 Hill $10M/1 Kluber He should have done better, even with that meager spending, I agree, but doing much better would have been a fluke. No doubt, our numbers suck. The ones you chose highlight just how bad we have been. I don't think the D did the staff any favors, but we'd still be bad even with a plus D. Some other numbers: 100 ERA- (10th in AL) 14.6% K%-BB% (8th in AL) Throw out 2020, and... 2021-2023 ERA- 101 (8th in AL) 4.04 SIERA (8th) 100 xFIP- (7th) Still bad, but much better than 2020-2023.

So, no ace- just sign 3 solid 175+ IP SP'ers, add Bello and Pivetta and go with a pretty damn good pen (add Crawford to your listed pen.)

Yes. You brought up getting him for OBP, and although he has fallen way short of what we expected or hoped for, he's still pretty high on the tema list there. (3rd)

We both agree on that. It's like when we spent on Pablito and HRam instead of Scherzer, and waited until later to get pitching (Price.)

More like a mirage. MVP is saying Stearns is going to the Mets.

Why more decisive than the 50+ IP splits or 3rd PA splits? They both look similar and actually overlap with each other in most cases (games.) I say this, because Houck reached 50 pitches and his 3rd PA through a line-up at various innings, usually the 3rd or 4th and sometimes the 5th, if he is doing well, and then he collapses. I seem to see that more than when he is starting the 4th or 5th innings. But, maybe it's just because that is what I am looking at, not the 3.2, 4.0. 4.1 IP numbers.

He deserves criticism, for sure, but to me, you have been going overboard. He's still at .801, which isn't awful. He's .002 behind Duran for 3rd in team OBP, and he has 160 more PAs than Duran. His OBP is better than Devers, who is about to make $30M a year x 10. He has a better OBP than Dugo. Only Casas and Turner have over 365 PAs and a better OBP than he does. Sure, .344 is not great. I expected .374 or better, but it's his first year in MLB and in a new country and culture. I am very concerned this will be a bad signing, as he will likely have to earn his money as a DH, but it just seems like overkill, to me. A bit relentless. Again, he does deserve criticism and scrutiny. He's been in a pretty long slump, now. A couple months ago, some were praising the signing. Maybe, it's all about timing. Someday, we may be okay or happy with the signing, again... or not.

I think it's a combination of conditioning and lack of extended repertoires. Some more of one than the other. If we can't ever get these guys to go 75 pitches in a game, then we have to maximize their chances to do the best they can by not putting them in those situations, anymore. I've been ringing the bell for adding two major studs at the TOTR, but in reality we probably need 2 plus some rotation depth to insure we never have to start Houck, Whitlock and probably Crawford, too. I think Pivetta can be handed the 5th slot, but we need more depth than Sale to make sure those 3 stay in the pen 100%. Sure, use them as openers, if needed, but never let them go beyond about 50 pitches or 18 batters- EVER! SP1 FA SP2 FA SP3 Bello SP4 FA SP5 Pivetta & Sale (Add SP ML ready depth to minor leagues) Closer Jansen Set Up Martin, Wink, Schreiber, Joely/Bernardino Long Relief Houck, Crawford, Whitlock Minor league depth: SP: FA, FA, Gambrell, Hagenman, Wikelman, Drohan SR: Kelly, Robertson, Guerrero, Mills LR: Murphy, Walter, Van Belle, Song

I'm not convinced he's our guy, but this winter, we need to outbid everyone for "the guy" we want. I'll go a step further: we then need to identify 2-3 other SP'er we feel are durable and dependable and outbid everyone for one of those, too. If we don't want to try and break our cirse on big FA signings, then we have to try our luck on one, and make a big trade for another. IMO, nothing short of adding two very good pitchers will get my stamp of approval. Skimping on a big RH'd bat and or a lefty RP'er can be stomached, if we get 2 solid SP'er. (I don't think we need to skimp, but I'm just emphasizing my priorities.) I'm no expert on who is the best, and since the Sox have not gone for the best, I'm not so sure we can judge Bloom as incapable of choosing the right one based on $10M/1 signings like Kluber and Richards. Bloom did try to lock up Nate and the Eflin attempt was also a sign he knows good pitching as much as anyone else. He just has not decided to or wasn't allowed to spend on the very best... YET!

It could be a similar situation as with Ben, where the philosophy is about to change drastically, and a different kind of GM might be better suited for that new direction. Just as DD might not have been the right GM to sit through a 4-5 year rebuild, Bloom might not be the guy we trust to be the big-spending, not-afraid-to-trade-top-prospects kind of GM. I'm just not sure upper management is[ onboard with repeating an all-out go for it now plan. I think they are seeking balance, and maybe they see Bloom as the guy for that. I, for one, am not convinced Bloom is dead set against trading top prospects. I just think the team philosophy was to wait until a winning window seemed closer than it was in 2020. We'll see.

I hope you are wrong, but that does seem to be the trend. I will say that JH's "trend" has been to stagger his big spending, usually at points where the team looks like they have a foundation set up for a window to open. Yes, 4 years is a long "stagger," but there have been recent signs of increased spending (Story, Yoshida and Devers.) We all seem to disagree on whether we have reached that point, yet, or not, but I do think JH will spend big, very soon. I'm not going to predict 2024. I do hope so. I do think we have a good enough foundation to be 3-4 key pieces away from being faves to make the playoffs in March, 2024. I fully understand the position that we are farther away than that. So many other teams look stacked with fine, young talent.

To me, it's more about the 3rd time through a line-up or about 50 pitches. Even when it looks like he's cruising, he hits a bump whenever he gets through 50 pitches or 18 batters. That could be the 3rd inning or during the 5th.

Define "smoke" and give some examples.

I'm just not sure why you have grabbed onto this flag to waive.

I agree. I might also add Pivetta to this list, but he does not fall apart after 50 pitches or the third time through a line-up like Houck. (He's not as good over the first 50 pitches, either.) In his career, he does better 51-75 than 1-25. 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 pitches Pivetta: .820, .697. .784 1st PA, 2nd... AS SP'er only .769>,747>,870 Houck By pitches: .644, .654, .920 By PAs: .626>,792>.938 Whitlock Pitches: .692, .612, .831 PAs: .760>,692>1.122 Crawford 2023 Pitches: .617, .739, .760 PAs: .612>.820>1,159 I'm not sure if you can have an 8 man pen with 2 short guys and 6 long guys, but we have at least 4- 5 if you count Murphy.

I'd take that.

My anti hero?

I'd be rooting for any Sox GM to draft the best player avaiable. It's not about Bloom or your fixation on thinking a bunch of us think of him as a "hero." DD's last two highest picks were SSs: 1. C Cannon SS & 2. Lugo SS in 2019. Just about every GM picks best available and not by position. It's not an apology. It's a winning strategy.

With a s***** manager, we might have had 90 wins.