moonslav59

I'm just tired of adding DH/LF types. I think Duvall might be better on D in RF and CF, for sure. TH looks like a better bat, for sure. Bellinger bats lefty. I think we try to bring Duvall back and hope the new Duran shows up. They may put too much hope in Story to take up the slack on O by losing JT, and I'm not sure that is wise. Assuming we bring back Duvall and nothing else to the O and D, I see it this way: The defense should improve by a lot, but still looks below average: SS: Much better with Story over Kike & Co. (Reyes and Urias are decent back-ups.) 2B: Reyes and Urias are close to average and our 2023 defense at 2B was below average. CF: If Rafaela can earn this slot by hitting well enough, there could be an enormous gain, here, and a ripple effect across the corner OF slots. LF: Yoshida to DH, alone, improves the LF defense, as Duran and Refsnyder are better. So are Abreu and Duvall. RF: Dugo and Duvall would be fine. (Abreu as back-up is probably better than Refsnyder.) 1B: Casas should improve, but I thought the same about Dalbec. (No JT as a sub hurts.) 3B: Devers has been up and down. Counting on an up may be futile. C: I'm thinking most catchers improve as they reach their late 20's. I'm hopeful they do better, particularly with handling the staff. Many of the same pitchers will be returning, so maybe that will help on that front. On offense, losing JT will hurt like hell. He was the blood and guts of our offense. Counting on more PAs from Story, Duran, Urias and Reyes may not produce enough added offense to offset that loss. Counting on a returning Duvall to stay healthy and hit well maybe be a stretch. Counting on Devers to have a career year might be needed. Counting on Casas to improve seems like a good bet, as he seems like he learns quickly and adjusts well. Dugo is tough to project. Yoshida might have to greatly improve for our offense to improve. For most of the season, I took the offense for granted, as being top 5 or 6. Now, I'm not so sure. Counting on Rafaela, Abreu and EValdez plus other upcoming prospects might be what we end up relying on.

In the coaches defense, despite all these worthy criticisms, the team came to play. They made adjustments to the point where they were winning the O line battles and running very well vs a tough Ohio State defense. The ND defense looked very good until the prevent D trap every coach seems to fall into. We got burned on that one blitz where nobody picked up the slot receiver, and they spotted it and got a big play. The long rushing TD was just one of about 3 plays that killed us. (The blitz play and of course the long pass at the end that got them to the 1 year line vs the prevent D.) 3 bad plays on D is not bas vs a team like that, and it is something to build on. Yes, the coach needs to stop making mistakes like those for us to join the big boys, for good, but I was impressed by our play, last night. I know- I know, only winning counts.

Wasn't there a timeout before at least one of those last two plays?

Other Teams Winter Issues: Toronto: FA: Chapman, Ryu, Belt, Kiermaier, Cimber Last Arb Raise Pending: Vlad ($14.5 in '23), D Jansen ($3.5), TRichards ($1.5) Texas: MPerez, JOdorizzi, AHedges, NLowe, BMiller, MGarver, AChapman, CStratton, IKennedy, RGrossman, WSmith, TJankowski, JLeclerc (option) (About half their 26 man roster, but they will likely be big spenders) Houston: Brantley, Stanek & Maton is not bad, but they added Verlander's salary, so I'm not sure how much they will spend, this winter. The Alvarex deal starts kicking in raises. Tucker will get a big 2nd arb raise. Seattle: Teoscar Hern, TMurphy The Luis Castillo extension kicks in ($13M raise). Marco Gonzalez gets a $6M raise and Ty France gets an arb raise. Some of these teams might have easier paths to stay strong or get stronger for 2024, than the Sox, but I think a lot will have to do with winter spending budgets. BAL and TBR cannot be caught up to, on paper in one winter.

True, but I'm hopeful we have more winter spending money, and I still think having a lower number of key slots to fill or refill is a plus from previous winters and when compared to other contenders who may be losing more than the equivalent of JT, Duvall & Paxton. We also have more and better prospects to trade or promote than most other contenders, but there are a handful of teams that look impassable, due to their current foundation, their budget and their strength of farm. Again, I realize 2 of those 3 slots we need to fill are extremely difficult to fill, and the risk of swinging and missing is significant. It's not a sure thing we will win, if we do add 2 of the better SP'ers out there on the market (FA, trades and International.) They both have to work out well: pitch well and give us 28+ GS and 175+ IP. That is a lot to ask for. I get it. IMO, we should add 3 solid SP, in hopes that 2 do very well, but we need some budget space for a RH'd bat and maybe a LH'd RP. I'm not sure JH will allow us to approach the second tax line, and that is likely what will be needed. Approx $70M $28M SP1 $18M SP2 $10M SP4 $12M RH'd bat $2M LH RP (more if we non tender Urias and don't take Joely's option) If we go with 2 better sp'ers: $32M SP1 $24M SP2 $14M RH'd bat $??? LH RP (Joely and or Urais savings?)

Pivetta has had several very good to great stretches with the Sox, some of them very long. He's been hideous in several shorter stretches, but it would be nice to see him put a full season together. I'd consider extending him, but I'm not sure what I'd offer: $33M/3, including 2024's arb year? Would he take it? Good stretches: His first 13 GS'd with the Sox: 3.49 ERA/3.29 FIP, including a 9 start stretch of 2.89/3.75. He ended the 2021 season with pretty long poor stretch: 19 GS (1 RP): 5.00 ERA/4.91 FIP. He started the 2022 very poorly for 5 starts, then he pitched like he was our ace: First 5: 7.84/5.48 Next 11: 1.95/3.17 After 3 horrible starts he then went 9 GS: 3.80/4.23 (Last 28 of '22: 4.13/4.28) We all saw how he started this season: First 14 games (8GS): 5.65/5.14 Last 23 games (7GS): 3:40/3.52 Which Pivetta will we see in 2024? Chances are, both. I'm fine with planning on him as the #5 with Sale as the #6 and maybe Crawford or Houck as our #7, but we need to stop jerking these guys between the pen and rotation, so often. One guy, maybe. Two in a pinch, but this year we jerked 4 guys that have all had some enormous success in the pen. Crawford: 21 GS 4.76 ERA 8 RP 1.66 (Career: 5.24 as SP in 34 GS and 3.35 as RP in 17 gms.) Houck: 19 GS 4.92 ERA 0 RP N/A ERA (4.09 career in 39 GS and 2.68 in 33 gms as RP) Pivetta 15 GS 5.06 ERA 22 RP 3.07 (career 4.98 SP/ 4.19 RP) Whitlock 10 GS 5.23 11 RP 5.50 (but some great numbers in relief in previous seasons) Career: 4.76 in 19 GS and 2.69 in 79 gms as RP Note: Winckowski 0 GS N/A era 56 GM 2.96

Story is not "average defense" by a long shot. Duran should not be "dumpster fire," if we can keep him in LF.

Get two solid SP'ers and a RH'd bat like a 150 game Duvall, and we should just need the same amount of "things to go right" as all other playoff contenders. We could certainly see regressions from guys like Duran, Casas, Reyes, Crawford, Wink and several others, but with so many younger and promising players, it's easy to expect some will improve like many do at their ages. Hell, even Devers is just entering peak prime and could have a monster season in '24. Of course, he could do worse, too. Last winter, we had to replace Bogey, Nate, Wacha, JD, Strahm and Hill. This winter, we have to replace JT, Duvall and Paxton, and if the budget can go over the tax line, I think the new GM will have an easier time filling our needs. I know, filling TOTR slots is never easy, but with a ton of budget space and a group of prospects that are coveted by other GMs. I fully understand how a poor choice here or there can bring the whole house of cards down. We do need some things to go right, for sure, but so do 90% of all the other playoff contenders of 2024.

Winning certainly makes watching more enjoyable, but the game is fun to watch, for me as long as there is some talent and many games are close. Baseball is a game of frustrations and letdowns, and that's from a player's perspective. The same rings true for fans of this great game. It's not "fun" getting frustrated watching this team more often than we hoped, but I, for one, still enjoyed watching the Sox, this year, especially the younger players, but also vets like JT, Martin and others for stretches. Not every team trying to make the playoffs makes them. A handful or so misses out, each season. It sucks that we were one of those left out in 2 of the last 3 years, but at least our future looks brighter than it did in 2019.

The offense was better than mediocre until August. It's been one long cluster funk.

Second in HRs (22) on the farm to Bobby Dee, but soxprospects dropped him from their top 60. He's got an .805 OPS at a higher level than last season. 8 HRs in 148 ABs at WOO. I can understand the drop, but knocked off the top 60 list is a loss of confidence by the site. The 172 Ks is a major factor.

It's also a race for the AL East 96-59 BAL 95-61 TBR -1.5 They don't play each other, again. BAL has 1 @ CLE, then comes home for 2 v WSH & 4 v BOS TBR has 1 v TOR, then 2 @ BOS & 3 @ TOR BAL certainly has the easier schedule.

Indeed. I thought the word "solid" covered that.

It's still not good enough adding an ace. Even if we guess right and get the best one, we still need another SP'er, but I fear we won't see it that way. Injuries will force us to move some guys that do well in the pen into the starting role, where they will come up short, again. Plus tax the pen. We need 2 solid SP'er who can eat innings and stay healthy.

They did show they can play toe-to-toe with the big boys, but yes, some questionable decisions, a dropped interception, missed FG and that damn prevent defense at the end of games. Lost the game as the runner is tackled with one second left and the ball is right on the goal line. Maybe 2-3 inches from victory. Great game, though.

The offense is leading me to think maybe we do need to spend a little, this winter on it. (Losing JT and Duvall and gaining Rafaela, Abreu and maybe more from Story, Urias and Reyes may not be enough.)

OPS v LHPs 1.000 McGuire (20 ABs) .903 Turner .857 Devers .836 Rafaela (20) .826 Refsnyder .785 Duvall .782 Reyes (48) .749 Duran (45) .738 Yoshida .603 Dugo .553 Wong vs RHPs 1.015 Abreu (49 ABs) .873 Devers .865 Casas .849 Duvall .840 Duran .806 Dugo .799 Yoshida .791 Rafaela (45) .776 JT .773 Valdez (111) .746 Wong .704 Reyes (109) .639 McGuire .515 Story (108)

As bad as our offense has been playing for weeks, it's hard to imagine so many players with pretty decent numbers. OPS .868 Devers .857 Casas .832 Duvall .828 Duran .810 Turner .784 Yoshida .753 Verdugo .691 Wong Under 300 ABs .944 Abreu .806 Rafaela .757 Dalbec .728 Reyes .698 Urias .681 Refsnyder .679 McGuire .525 Story BA .295 Duran (332 ABs) .288 Yoshida .277 JT .275 Devers HRs & RBIs 33 98 Devers 23 95 JT 24 65 Casas 15 71 Yoshida 20 57 Duvall (303) 13 54 Verdugo 9 36 Wong 8 40 Duran (332)

He wasn't even all that good after the trade and before the signing.

Wrong again. "Projecting?" That doesn't fit, here. I don't expect or want fans to see things like I do. I see enough how fans react to the Sox losing to be able to form an opinion on how I think most would behave, when we lose 90 games. I see how they act when we a GM goes about .500 in less than 4 years. If you are one that would enjoy watching a 90 loss Sox team, as long as they had Betts and Bogey, fine. I doubt many would agree, and as much as you complain, I guess I assumed wrongly about you and your type of fandomhood. Sorry.

I wouldn't hold that one freak HR against Wink. He's had a very good year and may rescue that Beni trade. Pivetta is looking like he's earned the 5th slot in '24. I think they give Houck the 4 slot. I just hope they don't plan on Crawford and Sale, and go for just one SP addition.

Here is the foundation for 2024 and beyond. I left the two SP'er slots open, since I can't see us not adding two. Top line projected to see significant ML time in 2024. Bottom line projected for future rosters or advancement in the minors. Red= Bloom acquired Black= DD/Theo acquired SP1 _____ SP2 _____ SP3 Bello SP4 Houck SP5 Pivetta/Sale/Crawford SP8 Gambrell, Walter, Drohan, Hagenman, Wikelman Perales, Monegro, Dobbins, ICoffey, Bastardo, Penrod, Song, E R-C, Rogers RP1 Jansen RP2 Martin RP3 Crawford/Sale/Pivetta RP4 Sale/Pivetta/Crawford RP5 Whitlock RP6 Winckowski RP7 Schreiber RP8 Bernardino/Joely/Murphy RP9 Kelly, Mata, Robertson, Mills, Guerrero C: Wong, McGuire, Scott Teel, Hickey, RHern, Brannon, Joh Garcia 1B: Casas, Dalbec Kavadas, Jordan 2B: Urias, Reyes, EValdez Yorke, Bonaci, Ravelo, Arias SS: Story, DHam Mayer, Fitzy, Romero, Cespedes 3B: Devers, Meidroth Zanetello, Paulino, C Coffey LF: Duran, Refsnyder Rosier, KCampbell, Anderson, Lugo CF: Rafaela, Abreu Anthony, Bleis RF: Verdugo Sikes, Castro, Asencio DH: Yoshida (EValdez/Dalbec) (Kavadas/ KCampbell)

Tough loss on a tough homer to lose by.

Plan on 5 solid SP'ers and slot him at #6 or #7. We all know, we won't see all 5 give 32-22 starts, and if the do, then Sale could be a force from the pen, if he can be healthy. We are asking to being force to move Whitlock or Houck to the rotation, if we plan on Sale as the #5. Look, I realize he could start 32 and be a #2, but we just can't plan on it. He could give us zero starts, just as easily.

You are right. Sox fans would not be upset, if we had Betts and Bogey and 90 losses. My bad.