In a way, the fact that so many of our pitchers have shown they can go long stretches of doing well as a SP'er may end up hurting us more than helping us, if we put to much hope in them repeating it over a full season- something some have never done, or haven't done in a long time. I know I have repeated this point a few times, so I hope it doesn't bother anyone to hear it again.
IMO, we can count on Bello for 26+ GS and 160+ IP in 2024. We can count on Pivetta for the same, as long as he pitches well enough to hold a rotation slot for the whole year. The rest are just hopes and prayers- some really good ones, but still not even close to being depended upon for 26+/160+, and it's not like 26 or 160 is asking for workhorses.
The other factor that seems to be a part of the decision making process on adding SP'ers is that we have so many of these "hopes and prayers" type SP'ers, that we may be thinking, "We only need 3-4 out of the 5 or 6 to do well, for us to have a good rotation. How has that worked out for us?
The last factor is how jerking pitchers Between the pen and rotation never seems to help the pitcher, and it actually seems to hurt their numbers. I get the argument about how a pitcher should have better numbers in the pen than as a starter, due to several factors, I won't repeat, but the disparity on many of our guys is too wide to use this factor as a balancing tool. We clearly have some guys who are better suited for long relief tha starting. Keeping a pitcher in one role seems to be a good idea, at least per season. I think Winckowski is a good example of that, but Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta also have shows massive disparities between starting and relieving. I think we need to make some smart choices. Maybe choose one guy, beyong Pivetta to start, and try our best to not jerk others in and out of the rotation in 2024.
Here is a look at the teasing we have seen from so many of our pitchers:
Sale: It's all about his health. The guy used to be a stud and a 200IP guy. His 20 starts and 102 IP in 2023 were the most since 2019, and IMO have teased fans into expecting a return to giving more than that. I'm sorry: I can't do it.
The 2023 "tease:" After his first 3 starts, he went 17 starts (sandwiched around an IL stint) with a 3.38 ERA/3.31 FIP. he was at 3.16/3.41 in his last 15 GS and 3.01/3.09 in an 11 game stretch in the middle of his season. That is not quite vintage Sale, but pretty freakin' good! What a great help it would be, if he could give us that over 26+ starts!
What's the chances?
Pivetta: He led MLB with 33 GS in 2022 and had 30 in 2021. (180 and 155 IP.) He could have probably done that, this year, if he didn't suck so much out of the gate and get demoted. Still, he has given us multiple "teases" over his career:
3.49/3.29 in his first 13 GS for the Sox (70 IP) 3.76/3.91 over his first 17 GS (91IP). 2022: 3.58/3.66 over a 15 start stretch. This year, he had a great and long run of mixed starts and relief stints. He's been pretty consistent: each year a long tease (or whatever you want to call it.)
Crawford: He had a great 23 game stretch with 15 GS, included: 3.23/3.93. I'm not sure that is a long enough tease to pencil him in as a SP in 2024. His last 6 GS: 5.40/2.94.
Whitlock and Houck have well-documented long stretches of doing very well, as well as some poor stretches.