moonslav59

I guess 5GG did actually say "unlimited," so I missed that, but teams do use projected ceiling and floors to help determine what the expected performance values might be.

Of course a promising prospects low salary is a big part of trades for prospects, as much as the dumping of salary, too. With a team like the Sox, who are not trying to be like the Rays, when they make a trade like Beni for Cordero and 4 prospects, they went and immediately spent the savings on Renfroe (or Marwin, if you want to make Bloom look bad.)

Who said unlimited ceiling. Possible high ceiling, yes. You said ceilings and floors have no input into valuations.

All this doesn't change my concerns about Cabrera. If they threw in Berti, and we give up Ref, I might say yes. Your plan could create a situation where we sign Duvall, and have this... Yoshida DH and some LF Duvall LF Rafaela & Abreu CF Dugo RF Apparently the Astros need OF help, what about Duran for Javier or another Astros SP?

You really think ceilings and floors have "nothing to do" with BTV's prospect valuation or GM's evaluation of prospects?

Then every prospect projected to make min would have the same value. Of course the estimate future performance, which involves estimating ceilings vs floors.

I did value a few lower than BTV... Duran Bleis Crawford Yorke Schreiber Drohan Valdez Bernardino Meidroth E R-C & Alcantara (slightly) Paulino DHam Jimenez, Lugo, Bonaci, Kavadas I'm also super high on Cespedes.

I certainly share your concerns about Duran. Many of us were lamenting the fact that we did not deal him when his stock was high, before the start of 2023. Now, it is backup, and we are dragging our feet. Maybe, I'm clinging to false hopes, but the guy had a .350 OBP vs RHPs in 2023 with 22 SBs in 313 PAs. The 40 XBHs projects to over 80 per 650 PAs! His D improved to the point where he'd be fine as a LF'er. His .749 OPS v LHPs was better than most Sox batters. Maybe I'm fooled. Maybe not. His career splits: .762 v R (30 SB & 65 XBHs in 578 PAs) .570 v L (3 SB and 6 XBHs in 119 PAs) That is scary as hell. If any GM values Duran as BTV does ($30M plus), then trading him makes sense, too. I don't think a single poster, here, thinks Duran is the team's 5th most valuable player/prospect, which BTV values him as.

Here is my take on BTV's Red Sox values: 60 Mayer (45-50) 42 Anthony (50-55) 38 Casas (45-50) 34 Bello (35-40) 30 Duran (15-25) 29 Bleis (20-30) 27 Crawford (20-25) 22 Devers (25-30 due to contract) 20 Houck (20-25- one less year than Crawford) 18 Teel (30-45) 17 Yorke (5-15) 17 Rafaela (15-30) 14 Schreiber (7-12) 12 Whitlock (12-17) 11 Winckowski (7-12) 5.7 Drohan (1-5) 5.6 Pivetta (7-11, despite just 1 year left) 5.0 Verdugo (6-9) 4.8 Perales (4-7) 4.2 Valdez (2-5) 4.2 Romero (2-22) 4.2 Zanetello (2-17) 4.0 Wikelman (7-17) 3.7 Bernardino (1-5) 3.4 Abreu (4-14) 3.3 Mediroth (1-4) 3.2 Martin (5-9) 3.0 Urias (2-10) 2.7 Jansen (3-7) 2.7 ER-C (1-4) 2.6 Alcanatara (1-4) 2.5 Cespedes (10-40) 2.4 McGuire (2-5) 2.3 Mata (1-4, out of options) 2.3 Wong (3-10) 2.3 Paulino (1-3) 2.3 Monegro (3-15) 2.2 Jordan (2-5) 2.2 Bastardo (2-4) 2.2 Castro (3-5) 2.1 DHam (1-2) 2.0 Murphey (1-5) 1.9 Walter (1-4) 1.9 Brannon (1-8) 1.9 Anderson (2-10) 1.9 Jo Garcia (2-10) 1.8 Jimenez (0-1) 1.7 Lugo (0-1) 1.7 Bonaci (0) 1.7 Hickey (2-5) 1.6 Dobbins (2-3) 1.4 Guerrero (1-3) 1.3 Rogers (2-3) 1.2 Robertson 1-3) 1.2 Kavadas (0-2) Notables under 1.0: 0.8 Z Kelly (1-3) 0.5 Gambrell (1-7) 0.5 Song (1-7) 0.5 Rosier (1-4) 0.4 Luis de la Rosa (1-3) 0.4 S Scott (1-2) 0.4 Hoppe (1-3) 0.4 Paez (1-2) 0.4 Troye (1-3) 0.0 Refsnyder (1-2) -0.6 Yoshida (+5 to -15) -10.3 Sale (+5 to -27) -80.0 Story (+5 to -40)

If Duran's BTV value is correct to a few GMs, we can get better than Cabrera in return.

1. Being the long side platoon means 400+ PAs, if he never starts vs a LHP- maybe 450-500, if he PH's or PRs and stays in the game. 2. He showed he could hit LHPs, okay last year, and could morph into a FT LG'er. 3. He has speed that could help as PR when he does not start. 4. I'm not high on Cabrera. I might trade Dugo for him. 5. I did not say start the season with a CF platoon. I said let one earn the job. I put "platoon?" in parenthesis, afterwards as a possibility. I'm not sure why, if all are on the 26, two platoons would be so awful. The two that are sitting might end up playing in many of the games they started on the bench. If Abreu or Rafaela start in AAA, of course, there would be no platoon. With Duvall in RF over Dugo, the L-R splits should be way more evened out. (Dugo probably should have been platooned, if we had a decent defensive RF'er who hit LHPs, well.)

Yoshida DH Duran-Ref platoon in LF Rafaela/Abreu work out who plays CF mostly. (Platoon?) Swap RHB for Dugo in RF. (Duvall?) It's not rocket science.

It's simple. Yoshida to DH near FT. Duran is fine in LF and may continue improving to the point where he might be okay as a back-up CF'er. If he sucks vs LHPs, we have Refsnyder, who I would start the season as a LF platoon with Duran. Duran could be a very nice leadoff hitter vs RHPs, which is about 120-125 games a year- starting. He could PH vs RHPs or PR late in games. I realize his value seems to jump all over the place, and he could drop, again in 2024. This could be the "sell high moment" we felt we missed a few years back. I get the point that Dugo is a better defender and plays RF. But he has just one year left, and we can't platoon Ref in RF, without a big hit on D.

While puffing on a magic dragon.

BTV also considers years of control. It is my understanding that basically, it's something like this: Dolllar value of 1 year of projected performance x years of control - salary or total salary projection.

Urias does offer much of the same hopes as some being talked about as our possible new 2Bman. He was really good "way back" in 2021 (112 OPS+,) and 2022 (108 OPS+) wasn't bad, either. He's dealt with some injuries, so maybe 2024 is a bounce back year. Urias has a career dWAR or +2.1, with almost equal times at 3B, SS and 2B. 2B OAA (2018-2023) +17 Merrifield +10 Story +9 A Frazier +0 L Urias -2 B Donovan -3 C Arroyo -21 Torres DRS 23 Kike 19 Frazier 11 Arroyo 2 Merrifield 00 L Urias -3 Torres UZR/150 6.3 Arroyo 2.0 Merrifield 1.9 Frazier 0.3 Urias -3.5 Torres -4.0 Kike

I wouldn't do it. Duran for Cabrera and maybe Berti?

Last place to contender by replacing Montgomery & Gray with Yamamoto & Nola? (And Torres with Dugo & Urias)

In short, they robbed Peter to pay Paul.

Start with teaching Judge how to bunt! LOL!

Using MLBTR's estimated contract costs, here's a stab at something I think is reasonable: A) Net cost about $2M AAV We trade Dugo & Urais for Torres and $5M We sign Duvall Net cost $48M AAV Sign Montgomery ($25M x 6) and S Gray ($23M x 4) SP: Montgomery, Gray, Bello, Sale, Pivetta (Houck) LR: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford (Murphy) SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino (Mata/Kelly) 1. L- Duran/ R-Refsnyder LF 2. L Devers 3B 3. R- Torres 2B 4. L- Casas 1B 5. R- Story SS 6. L- Yoshida DH 7. R- Duvall RF 8. R- Wong/ L- McGuire C 9. R- Rafaela/ L- Abreu CF Utility: R- Reyes

ERA and OPS Against, yes. Freaky, huh? I have mentioned how I thought Bloom's rotation additions were better in '22 than '21: Wacha & Hill vs Richards & Perez Let's hope 2024's blows both away.

I'm not saying '23 was close to '21- just that '21 was not all that good. We've had no good rotation since 2018.

Our rotation numbers... 2023 4.68 ERA/ .766 OPS Against 2022 4.49/.763 2021 4.49/.763 (not a typo- exact same as 2021) 2020 5.34/.861 2019 4.95/.781 (worse than any year after 2020.) 2018 3.77/.697

4 of those 5 starters had ERAs over 4.50. Richards and Perez were banished to the pen.