moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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If they sign Duvall and trade Dugo, he'd be the FT RF'er. It would take Duran, Rafaela and Abreu all doing significantly better than him to dislodge him from his FT position. 2023 PAs and OPS 602 Dugo .745 580 Yoshi .783 (to DH?) 362 Duran .828 353 Duvall .834 243 Refsny .682 89 Rafaela .666 85 Abreu .862 It looks obvious that a healthy Duvall is locked into a FT OF slot, even with Dugo and Duran on the roster.
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He's 27, which is not old, but the 4 years will bring him to his age 31 year. That is still "prime," but on the cusp of the down slope, in general. I'm happy we have 4 years of control. I don't see a rush to extend, now. If he explodes in 2024, I'll regret having that opinion, but we'll still have 3 more years after '24.
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He was amazing on offense in about a half season's PAs.
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I was responding to the point about Durans OPS over a 362 sample size. Dalbec's poor D and positional offset killed his WAR. I loved what I saw from Duran, and I am excited about how he might do in 2024. His improvement on D was near miraculous. What's not to like? My point is, the rest of the profile on Duran makes this 360 sample size something I need to see more of to believe in an $80M deal. I would not sign him to $60M/5. He has 4 years left at pre-arb and arb costs, already.
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Yes, I can certainly see JH thinking DD is not the guy for a rebuild with little spending for 2-3 years. It was likely a mutual awareness. I do think that had DD been okay with trading Betts and cutting salary and not trading prospects for studs, maybe JH thinks differently about it. I think DD verbalized his displeasure with the direction or let it be known in other ways. It's obvious, the move was best for both, under the changing circumstances.
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Part of the reason Refsnyder's fWAR is so low, is because he started more games vs RHPs in 2022 than LHPs. He's a negative vs RHPs, and that is a serious issue that complicates a 26 man roster and a manager's in-game choices. I get that, but to me, this outweighs the problems, and we have some really crappy hitters vs LHPs: 2022-2023 v LHPs: (OF in Red) 1.038 Bogey (not on team) .998 JD (not on team) .900 Turner (likely not on 2024 team) .889 Refsnyder .814 Vaz (not on team) .784 Devers .783 Story .777 Cassas .772 Reyes .756 Duvall (FA after '23) .746 Yoshida .652 Verdugo .611 Duran .477 Wong I love Duran's speed, and he started showing he could hit lefties better in 2023, but I'm not benching Ref vs LHPs, and I don't want ref or Duran playing CF or RF, but I could see benching Dugo vs LHPs and not Duran.
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I love it- just like I did Dalbec's finish to 2021, which was a larger sample size. Dalbec was at .819 after his first 545 PAs.
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I've given my opinion on Duran. I responded to your comment about "cherry-picking." Duran has been highly inconsistent. He has changed his approach almost as many times as years in our system. His defense showed a major change, almost overnight. I think it is fair to say, more time is needed. It's not like I'm changing my criteria. I'm pretty consistent on thinking what others think is a sufficient sample size as not being one, to me. I'm all for starting the season with Duran and Refsnyder platooning in LF and Yoshida at DH and insurance, in case the LF situation implodes. We are not that far away from a time when just about this entire board was done with Duran or very close to it. I'm not short-changing what he did. I'm handing him the LF job for most of the games and am totally willing to let him earn a non-platoon role. If refsnyder was not our best hitter vs LHPs since the start of 2022, I'd be okay with Duran FT in LF. I don't want him in CF or RF.
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Nobody else caught Kluber. Wong caught Paxton about 5:1 and Sale about 6:1. It's not a straight comp. Go one by one, with each pitcher who has a large enough sample size with both catchers, and the story flips.
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You mean the 29 games started in 2022 plus the 19 GS in April & May of '23? The pitchers did well with him after May 24th, 2023.
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That could very well be it, but I'm thinking the friction started from DD not wanting to take on the role of "rebuilder." He pushed back, and they knew they needed a change to someone willing to follow "the new plan." Pure speculation on my part, but not mant free-wheeling GMs would be happy with such a sudden change in philosophy, especially one who knew he could find another job, quickly.
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Some final OPS Against Numbers by our pitchers with certain catchers: Only pitchers with less than a 4:1 ratio of PAs are listed: Min 40 PAs against Red= Greater than 70 Points Better with Wong: Bello .754>.803 Pivetta .610>.744 Bernardino .603>.942 Better with McGuire: Crawford .447>.736 Whitlock .735>.858 Winckowski .649>.721 Martin .350>.622 Jansen .487>.758 Schreiber .655>.793
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Like that guy going nutty over McGuire's CERA after a couple months.
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Fine. Ref's deal ends after 2024.
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You are correct. It was 3 out of 4. June, August & Sept 2021. Despite the bad July, he still managed an .843 OPS from May 15 to Oct 3, 2021. (.827 May 1-Oct 3- 5 months combined)
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I think the friction started when we did not bring back Kimbrell, and maybe the pending Betts departure was just too much for DD to stand for. The fact that no prospects trades were made after the 2018 deadline also makes me think that was not DD'd choice. I think DD saw the writing on the wall, and that management was not going to allow him to do what he wanted to do. Just my opinion. Seriously, how would DD have handled the 2020 budget and demands to cut salary?
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Agreed, but with Yoshida able to play LF, I think we will roll the dice in the OF. I see us signing Duvall and trading Dugo. RF: Duvall/Abreu (Refsnyder) CF: Rafaela/Abreu (Duran) LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Yoshida) We may get by, even if two fail.
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It's interesting to think we will likely go with what we have at 2B for 2024. When you look at how bad they played, I'm not sure it's a good idea. The Urias arb estimate seems like a lot, but the guy does have some proof he can hit well for 2 years in a row. Our 1st and 5th leaders in innings at 2B are gone: 442 Arroyo 357 EValdez 209 Urias (44 innings at 3B) 196 Reyes (had 208 at SS, which might have been at 2B had Story been healthy) 131 Kike 49 Turner 18 Chang, 11 Rafaela, 11 DHam, 5 Wong, 1 Dalbec Reyes has no options. I think Urias has 1. EValdez may start in AAA, just to keep depth.
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His speed offers some excitement, but he doesn't seem like a very bright base runner. His defense improved, but he barely okay in LF. He has changed his approach, so often, and has had struggles, so often, it's hard for me to think about locking him up- long term. We have him for 4 more years: one pre-arb and 3 arbs. I don't see any urgency. Keeping the LF and CF slots open for Duran, Refsnyder, Abreu and Rafaela is still a gamble.
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You mean "rotation?"
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As with just about everyone. Even when doing well, they weren't "murderer's row," but they were better than acceptable.
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Dalbec his very well for 3 straight months. Duran couldn't do it for 2 straight. He already has 4 years of team control. It's not a top priority, to me. The guy sucked, last year. His defense improved to near acceptable in LF and still sa negative in CF. He hit well in 2 of 4 months. He hasn't earned $80M.
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Certainly Cora has more power, now. Your original post said "managed," which was talking about the past.
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Somehow, our OF finished 5th in OPS and 12th in fWAR. In 2022, the OF finished 27th in fWAR and 24th in OPS.
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Then he "managed" the guys who decided to fire Bloom, right?
