moonslav59

There is also a report that Monty may sign with TEX, NYY or STL. (My guess is, if STL signs Gray, they will pass on Monty.)

I hope you are right. I do remember Walter being hyped quite a bit. soxprospects.com had him as our highest ranked pitcher, last summer (5th- just ahead of Mata at 6th.) I know it's not all about stats, but these numbers jumped out at me, even though it was just 89 IP in 2021: 0.974 WHIP 132 Ks 20 BBs 6.6 K:BB 2.92 ERA His numbers in AA in 2022: 0.780 WHIP Once he hit AAA, his K:BB went down to 2.4. In MLB: 2.3. 68 K's 3 BB An astounding 22.7 K:BB! 2.88 ERA

So is Scherzer. Can the guy pitch?

Here is my all farm 26 man roster: SP: Wikelman, Perales, Monegro, Dobbins, Gambrell (not Drohan/E R-C/Bastardo) RP: Guerrero, Murphy, Walter, Hoppe, Troye, Rogers, I Coffey, Penrod C: Teel, Joh. Garcia (Scott/Brannon) 1B: Meidroth (Jordan) 2B: Yorke (Alcantara) SS: Mayer (DHam) 3B: Cespedes (Anderson) LF: Castro (Rosier) CF: Bleis (Yuten) RF: Anthony (Sikes) DH: EValdez (Hickey) UT IF: Romero UT : Paulino UT: Zanetello

On the soxprospects.com projected 2024 rotsers they have the MLB team adding 4 players: SP1 SP2 2B Adam Duvall They have us trading Verdugo and DFAing Llovera and Weiss. That leaves a 28 man roster. Mata is out of options, so he may be traded. That leaves one of these guys to be in AAA: Bernardino, Schreiber or Campbell, unless we trade a pitcher. or someone is on the IL. They have Rafaela starting in AAA w EValdez in MLB. The AAA rotation of Walter, Drohan, Gambrell, Van Belle and Santos seems lacking. The AA rotation looks very interesting/promising: Wikelman, Dobbins, Bastardo, ICoffey, Penrod and Song listed as the 6th SP. (Perales may end up in AA.) A rotation: Perales, Monegor, E R-C, Rogers, Duffy & Paez, also very interesting. How about the Portland line-up? C: Teel 1B: Jordan 2B: Paulino SS: Mayer 3B: Binelas LF: Lugo CF: Anthony RF: Sikes DH: Hickey That looks better than the AAA: Scott, Dalbec, Yorke, DHam, Meidroth, Rosier, Rafaela, McDonugh, Kavadas (If EValdez is in AAA and Rafaela in MLB, it surely looks better, to me.)

I don't think anyone cared about Bloom's minor league signings. If they did, they should not have.,

Hardly anyone has done anything, yet. It's too early to judge anything about Brez.

It's a minor league deal!!!!

Tigers sign Maeda for $24M/2. Yuck!

Sox sign Wyatt Mills to a 2 year minor league deal!

Of course a 6-7 year deal for Bogey at $22-23M would have been better, but we signed him for $20M x 3 that ended at age 30. .907 OPS '18-'20 and 137 OPS+ .823 OPS '21-'23 and 126 OPS+ Looks like a damn good deal. JD gave is an .889 OPS over 5 years (135 OPS+) Per 162 games: .292 33 107 Looks like a damn good deal. These two deals are among the best in recent Sox history.

$20M x 3 was a steal!

I have not seen any MPH numbers on Yamo or Imanaga. fangraphs has Monty at about: 91-94 in 2021 92-94 in 2022 93-94 in 2023 These are not great velocity numbers. Sonny Gray: 92-93, 91-93, 92-93 (about the same as Monty) Blake Snell: 94-96, 95-96, 95-97 (looks significantly better) ERod: 91-93, 90-93 (missed time), 89-93 (lowest of these 4.) I think Brez might be looking closely at Seth Lugo: 92-95 (topped out at 97) 93-95 (topped at 96) 92-94 as a SP'er only (topped at 95) I'm not sure what the other 2nd or 3rd tier pitchers are at. Statcast has these numbers for 2023 (1500+ pitches) on 4 seamers: 97 Ohtani, Luzardo (trade?) 96 Severino, Galsnow, E Cabrera & Cease (trade?), Cobb 95.5 Snell 95 M Keller (trade), Paxton (Bello and Pivetta are at 95.) 94 Lorenzen, Clevinger (Sale & Houck) 93 Lugo, Monty, Giolito, Flaherty, Gray

Agreed. I'm not going to believe a change has been made until I see it. I cannot bring myself to believe the statements made, anymore. I could see us signing Lugo and Flaherty/Wacha/Stroman, and I'd be pissed, if that's the best we do at upgrading the rotation. Another scenario might be that we sign Lugo and trade for Cease or Burnes. Depending on what we give up, and if we extend the pitcher traded for, that might be good enough for me, but just barely.

The Bogey and JD deals were two of the best contracts the Sox have made since the Manny deal. We were not burned. We got Bogey for $20M x 3 in his prime. We got very good production from JD over his deal, despite lower RBI totals near the end. Sure, I'd have preferred a longer deal with Bogey, but it was a great extension signing.

Are the highest spin rate pitches all fastballs?

I think stats like ERA+ and ERA- help factor in the eras pitchers pitched in, and Pedro's 7 year stretch is the best in MLB, IMO. ERA- rankings: 1. Slim Jones 30 in '34 2. Pedro 35 in '00 3. Maddux 37 in '94 4. Gibson 38 in '68 5. Maddux 39 in '95 (the best 2 year stretch in MLB history) 6. Pedro 42 in '99 9. Clemens 44 in '05 11. Clemens 45 in '97 13. Pedro 45 in '97 17. Clemens 47 in '90 20. Pedro 48 in '03 23. Pedro 50 in '02 39. Maddux 53 in '97 40. Maddux 53 in '98 (A great 5 year stretch: see below) (Pedro had an ERA- or 53 in 2001 but just 117 IP) 75. Clemens 57 in '98 (A longer stretch of greatness, but not a 7 yrs stretch like Pedro: see below) 83. Maddux 57 in '93 88. Clemens 57 in '86 94. Clemens 58 in '92 Comping the 3: Pedro 13 seasons from '93-'05 with all 100+ IP (7 year stretch in RED) 68 80 83 88 45 61 42 35 53 (only 117 IP) 50 48 82 68 Greg Maddux 15 seasons from "88-'02 (all 199+ IP) with best consecutive 7 in RED: 87 80 86 87 61 (1992) 57 37 39 64 53 53 (1998) 79 65 71 64 (2002) Clemens: 20 seasons from '86 to '06, all over 140 IP, except the last one: 57 (1986 w SOX) 65 72 77 47 61 58 99 57 86 72 (last season w SOC) 45 (TOR) 57 97 (NYY) 77 80 99 88 68 (HOU) 44 52 (only 113 IP) 7 Year numbers, overall: ERA- Pitcher (IP/ FIP) 47 Pedro (1403/2.61) 2nd Johnson at 60, 3rd Brown & Prior 69, 5th Maddux 85 53 Maddux (1675/ 2.59 FIP) 2nd Clemens 65, 3rd Johnson 69, 4th Pedro, Morris & Rijo 71 63 Clemens (1799/2.63) 2nd: Musina at 66, 3rd Guzman 69, 4th Appier & Tudor76 Pedro's IP is 270-400 less than Maddux and Clemens best 7 year stretch, but the ERA- is better than Maddux and much better than Clemens.

Agreed, but also those who try to get the highest spin rate on hard thrown breaking balls, go under the knife often, too.

I agree that Yamo will demand an opt out or two. He has the potential to be great, and could end up better than what the highest contract offer is. When you deal with opt-outs, the structure of the pay by years is more important. If it's backend loaded, then the opt out is less likely. Of course, he'd prefer a front end loaded deal with an opt out after the big payday seasons. It's hard for me to put a number on the highest I'd go. The posting fee is pretty big, too. I don't think MLBTR's projected $225M/9 gets it done. I think he might get $270M/10. At age 25, there is really no comp, except for maybe Tanaka, who signed at age 25 for $155M/7 way back in 2014! My view may change, but right now, I might offer $280M/11 or $290M/12. The extra years would bring down the AAV, and those years would only be at ages 35-36. (Those are Sonny Gray years.)

Look at what Pedro did during the big scoring era!

Some are saying the same about Snell or Monty for 7 years. Maybe Gray takes a 4 year deal, but I doubt it. The BB/9 numbers for Snell scare the bejesus out of me. I kinda like this priority order: 1. Yamo 7-11 yrs 2. Monty 6-7 yrs 3. Gray 4-5 yrs 4. Snell 6-7 yrs Then a big drop: (#3-4 SP'ers) 5. Imanaga 3-5 yrs? 6. ERod 5-6 yrs 7. Lugo 3-4 yrs 8. Wacha 2-3 yrs (#4 starters- I'm not that interested, but if it improves the pen by moving Crawford or Houck there, maybe it's worth it) 9. Y Rod (27 yr old from Cuba) 3-4 yrs (RP or SP?) 10. Stroman 2-3 yrs 11. Giolito 2-3 yrs 12. Flaherty 2-3 yrs 13. Clevinger 2 yrs 14. Mahle 2 yrs 15. Paxton 1 yr (#5s- not the way I like to "improve" the rotation) 16. Lorenzen 2 yrs 17. Montas 1 yr 18. Severino 1 yr 19. Maeda 2 yrs The Wild Cards: 1A. Ohtani 6+ ys (Not interested in paying large for a DH & injured pitcher) 2A. Clayton Kershaw 1 ys (Will likely sign with LAD) 2B. Trevor Bauer 1-2 yrs (I might give him a try.) 4A. Julio Urias (Good enough to be a top 5 SP signing, but he may end up in jail: PASS!)

That's given. I was responding to the point about Brez's willingness to get so bold right out of the gate- or not.

I like the "There was no point..." comment.

Agreed, but first Brez is the one that would have to bring the deal to them and push for it- or not.

Signing Yamo would come down to trusting the scouts, the radar guns and your own instincts. I think Brez will make 1-2 "gutsy moves," this winter. How gutsy is the question. I'm thinking one big trade of prospects that are not "his type" and one major signing, which to me is anyone as good or better than Monty.