moonslav59

My dream is Yamo, Monty & Lugo, but this is the realistic thread. Both Monty & Gray are probably not realistic. Maybe Monty & Lugo are the best we can hope for.

I think we have a legit top 5 chance, depending on JH's willingness to fork it over. A lot will depend on what Brez & the scouts think, if JH gives the green light. I think he is worth the hefty gamble.

Breslow is apparently focusing on hard throwing pitchers. Here is a look at the FB velocities of our prospects, according to soxprospects.com: 7. Perales 94-96 (tops at 99) 9. Wikelman 94-96 (97) 15. Drohan 91-93 (96) 20. Monegro 93-95 (96) 23. Dobbins 92-95 (97) 24. E R-C 91-93 (95) 25. Guerrero 96-98 (100) RP 26. Bastardo 93-95 (97) 27. Mata 95-97 (99) Out of options 28. Hoppe 96-99 (100) RP 31. Fernandez 96-98 (100) RP 32. Walter 89-93 (94) 33. Troye 93-95 (98) RP 34. Rogers 91-94 (96) 36. Gambrell 91-94 (96) 38. Penrod 92-94 (96) 39. Paez 89-91 (92) 44. I Coffey 88-90 (91) 46. Cepeda 95-96 (98) RP 47. Sena 94-97 (98) RP 49. Olivarez 93-97 (100) RP 52. Zeferjahn 95-97 (98) RP 54. Liu 93-95 (98) RP 55. Soto TBD 56. Early Low 90's 58. Cohen TBD 59. Mullins 90-94 RP 60. Song 89-92 (93) Top Velocity for SP'ers (as of now) 99 Mata 95-97 (out of options- may make pen) 99 Perales 94-96 97 Wikelman 94-96 97 Bastardo 93-95 97 Dobbins 92-95 96 Drohan, Rogers, Gambrell, Penrod

SNY's Andy Martino reports that Yamo's plan on choosing a team to sign with may be like this: 1. The first stage is a round of phone calls and Zoom meetings with all of the interested teams. 2. Yamamoto is then expected to arrive in the United States for a series of in-person meetings and further negotiations with however many finalists make this second and presumably last stage of talks. The timeline for these in-person sitdowns is after baseball’s Winter Meetings (December 4-7), which will allow teams a better sense of the pitching market if some other top hurlers are signed or traded in the interim, and allows Yamamoto’s camp that same knowledge as well as perhaps extra negotiating leverage, if remaining suitors are even more desperate for pitching. Though Yamamoto’s posting window extends until January 4, it “is not expected to require that much time” for the right-hander to decide on a contract. It would tentatively seem like he might have his decision made sometime between mid-December and Christmas Day. Martino also adds a clarification to a statement made by Wolfe earlier in the week, as the agent told Japanese media during a conference call that his client would have no problem playing with another Japanese player. Due to a translation error, this was incorrectly interpreted as Wolfe saying that Yamamoto was prioritizing teams that already had at least one Japanese player on the roster, which isn’t the case.

MLBTR reports... Right-hander Yariel Rodriguez held a private workout today, per reporter Francys Romero. Romero adds that the Red Sox and Padres were the two teams with representatives in attendance to watch the righty, who threw two innings during the workout. Rodriguez, 27 in March, was declared a free agent by MLB earlier this month after he was granted his release by the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez spent three seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the Dragons, racking up a 3.03 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate in 175 1/3 innings during that time. His 2022 campaign with the Dragons was particularly impressive as he dominated to the tune of a microscopic 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 frames, with a 27.5% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate. After his dominant work in Japan, Rodriguez suited up as a starting pitcher for his home country of Cuba during the World Baseball Classic, during which he struck out ten while allowing two runs on five hits and six walks in 7 1/3 innings of work between his two appearances. Following his appearances in the WBC back in March, Rodriguez sat out the remainder of the 2023 campaign as the Dragons placed him on the restricted list prior to granting the righty his release last month. Public evaluations of Rodriguez are few and far between thanks to the unusual nature of his free agency, but given his unusual youth for a free agent and dominant numbers overseas, it’s easy to see why teams in need of pitching help would be interested in his services, particularly if they believe he can start in the majors. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez #28 on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list earlier this month, projecting him for a four-year, $32MM contract. Earlier this offseason, Romero relayed a list of ten teams that had shown interest in Rodriguez that included neither Boston nor San Diego, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times indicated that the Rays were among fifteen teams that were represented at a workout held by Rodriguez last month. It’s unclear what level of interest the clubs connected to Rodriguez thusfar this offseason have in the right-hander, though it’s easy to see how the Red Sox and Padres match up as potential fits. Boston has made it clear that additional starting pitching help is a priority for the club this offseason, including the possibility of pairing a top-of-the-market arm with a second, more affordable piece. Rodriguez could make plenty of sense as a secondary acquisition for Boston. Young arms like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford have all shown an ability to pitch both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, helping to ease the risk involved in signing an arm like Rodriguez, who hasn’t pitched regularly out of the rotation in professional games since 2019.

ND should have ran Estime more, this year. Today: 25 rushes 238 yards 4 TDs

Yup. Forgot about Conference Championship game.

At least ALA can't make the playoffs. I'm hoping WSH St beats WSH. It's tied, late.

Duquette really laid the groundwork for Epstein, well. He took over a team that went 73-89 in '92 and 80-82 in '93. It took a few years to get the team to 92 wins in 1998, but the team did go 86-58 in '95 for a .557 win%. The 2001 team was 82-79, but the foundation handed over to Mike Port included: 2001 Red Sox OPS 1.014 Manny .881 Nixon .859 VTek .859 Daubach .822 Nomar .786 Bichette .761 Carl Everett .735 O'Leary .716 Offerman + Hatteberg, Hillenbrand, Stynes, D Lewis, Merloni, Valantin Pitchers: Pedro Lowe Nomo Wake R Arroyo Castillo, Cone, Ohka, Garces, Fossum, Kim Prospects: Lester, Youk, HRam, Shoppach, David Murphy, Freddy Sanchez, Anibal Sanchez, Delcarmen, Jorge de la Rosa and K Gabbard

Top Sox Drafted/IFA & Signed fWARs since 2003: 58.5 Betts 46.2 Lester 44.5 Pedey 41.0 HRam 38.6 Bogey 36.1 Rizzo 31.2 An Sanchez 30.2 Youkilis 30.1 Ellsbury 21.2 Devers 20.7 Schilling 19.9 Reddick 19.8 Lowrie With Sox Only: fWAR drafted or IFA signed after 2012 21.2 Devers 8.5 Beni 5.7 Nava 5.4 Ellsbury 4.6 Houck 2.9 Crawford 2.9 Bello 2.5 Iggy 2.1 Casas 1.7 J Taylor 1.6 Middlebrooks, Duran 1.5 TShaw

We don't know the total value of Ben, DD and Bloom's drafts, yet. Many of Ben's are on other teams, but not jumping out at us in high values. DD has some good players. Bloom's are largely still in the minors. Also, IFAs do not count.

When we are talking 5-7 year deals, I'm not sure how much losing a draft pick does to projected value. I believe it is NOT the first round pick lost.

For people who poo-poo the Sox draft strategy, I did find this: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/06/03/a-team-by-team-look-at-baseballs-draft-from-1996-2018/39539549/ 1996-2018 drafts: BOSTON RED SOX Total WAR for all drafted players: 697 (MLB rank: 1st) Total WAR for drafted players who signed: 483.9 (rank: 2nd) Total WAR for drafted players who did not sign: 213.1 Impact players (10 WAR or more) drafted: 25 (rank: 1st) Impact players drafted and signed: 16 (rank: tie-2nd) Most recent impact player drafted and signed: Mookie Betts, 2011, fifth round (37.7 WAR); Jackie Bradley Jr., 2011, first round, pick No. 40 (12.3 WAR); Travis Shaw, 2011, ninth round (10.8 WAR) Lowest pick for impact player drafted and signed: David Eckstein, 1997, 19th round, pick No. 581 (20.9 WAR) Best draft class, based on total WAR (impact players listed): 2005, 102.8 WAR (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Charlie Blackmon, Jason Castro) Best draft class, counting signed players only: 2005, 65.3 WAR (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie) Highest pick: Trey Ball, 2013; Andrew Benintendi, 2015 (pick No. 7) Best player drafted and signed, based on career WAR: Dustin Pedroia, 2004, second round (51.7 WAR) Best player drafted who did not sign: Mark Teixeira, 1998, ninth round (51.8 WAR) Best player drafted and signed from first round: Jacoby Ellsbury, 2005, pick No. 23 (31.1 WAR) Details: The Red Sox have been excellent in the draft and have the championships to show for it. Their 2005 class included an incredible five impact players, three of which signed. Six years later, they drafted and signed three more. Boston's title teams have been populated with plenty of standouts originally drafted by the team: Pedroia, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Betts, Bradley, Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester . the list is an impressive one. The Red Sox have also lost a lot of solid players in the form of unsigned picks. They could afford to. 2010-2019: 1st Rd Picks ONLY value: (about middle of the pack) All draft picks 2011-2017: (Sox #1:) https://brewerfanatic.com/forums/topic/32807-total-war-by-draft-picks-since-2011/ Values by draft slots: 2000-2010: https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

I'm surprised nobody has done and published it.

lol

Gray and Snell YES Monty No. He was traded midseason. Yamo NO Imanaga NO ERod I think NO (second time through free agency)

I agree. I am also not so sure he won't have some down years, right off the bat. He was non tendered by the Dodgers. He's not all that consistent. fWARs: 3.9 as rookie in '17 3.5 in '18 7.8 in '19 3.5 Projected for '20 -1.0 in '21 1.8 in '22 4.1 in '23

I did not see any breakdown by position drafted.

I do not know an easy way to see where players were drafted, and comparing the two lists looks too daunting. to even me.

They don't do it by highest posting fee offered, anymore. The posting fee is fixed. Yamo chooses who to sign with- most likely the highest or near highest bidder. Many Asian pitchers prefer to pitch on the left coast, due to travel times going home, but who knows with Yamo.

The good thing about Gray is that the contract length should be much shorter than Snell and Monty. I like Monty over Snell and Gray, but it is close. (No loss of a draft pick tilts the balance, for me.) I think Whitlock will be in the pen, for sure, despite Brez saying they'd stretch out Houck & Whitlock. Pivetta seems like the best pick for our #5, unless he looks awful in ST'ing. Of course, Sale's health will determine who our #4/5 will be: Sale, Houck or Crawford. The others would be in the pen. Bello should be our #3, not our #2, but that depends on who we add.

Back to the talk about how to categorize (or name) differing levels of SP'ers in MLB. First, so many good pitchers are hurt, so often, it's hard to claim they are better than another pitcher, who pitches much more often, but maybe not as well. The days of 30-60 pitchers with 190 IP a season seem to be over and done with. Only 15 pitchers had 190+, this season. Only 36 had more than 169 IP! How much value do we place on them vs better SP'ers with less than 150 or 120 IP? I'm sure the answer is subjective, and we all have our own opinions on how much IP affects how we value a SP'er. (It's also hard to project future IP, but going by recent past and age seems to be a logical way to reach what to expect.) Secondly, how do we determine who are the best SP'ers in MLB or even on each team? IP? fWAR/bWAR? ERA? xFIP? W-Ls? All of the above and more? Thirdly, do we use 2023 numbers? 2022-2023? 2021-2023? Career? With so many differing factors and opinions on all of these three areas and how much each is used to determine value, it's hard to find agreement. For argument's sake, I'm going to choose fWAR, since it uses many stats to determine a value placement of past performance. More IP adds to fWAR value, if the pitcher is good. xFIP is more important to fWAR than bWAR and that factors in a lot of variables that are hard to do in our heads. Now, here is what I found, team by team for 2023 only: 33 pitchers had an fWAR or 3.0 or higher, roughy one per 30 teams, but 8 teams had 2 on their staff and SEA had 3. Nine teams, including the Sox, did not have a top 33 SP'er by fWAR in 2023. Top fWAR SP'ers by team: PHI: 5.9 Wheeler, 3.8 Nola ATL: 5.5 Strider TOR: 5.3 Gausman, 3.0 Berrios MIN: 5.3 Gray, 4.5 Lopez NYY: 5.2 Cole ARI: 5.2 Gallen, 3.3 M Kelly CHC: 4.9 Steele SGF: 4.9 Webb TBR: 4.8 Eflin, 3.2 Glasnow SEA: 4.4 Kirby, 3.7 Castillo, 3.2 Gilbert HOU: 4.3 Valdez STL: 4.3 Monty (to TEX), 3.1 Mikolas SDP: 3.9 Snell BAL: 3.8 Bradish MIA: 3.7 Luzardo, 3.0 Garrett CWS: 3.7 Cease MIL: 3.4 Burnes, 3.0 Peralta NYM: 3.4 Senga, 3.3 Verlander (to HOU) DET: 3.3 Skubal, 3.0 DET PIT: 3.3 Keller CLE: 3.0 Bibee 14 Pitchers (in RED) were at 4.0+ fWAR. One could argue they were true "aces," but others may say no. Some below 4.0 might be viewed as better than some above 4.0. If you take the example of Monty, which was fiercely debated, earlier, this week, by fWAR in 2023, only, he was better than 18 team's best SP and worse than 11. The "other 9" teams' best SP by fWAR in 2023: 36. LAD B Miller 2.8 45. LAA Detmers 2.5 46. TEX Eovaldi 2.5 56. BOS Crawford 2.2 (Sale was at #60 at 2.1, Bello was #86 at 1.6) 58. CIN Abbott 2.2 66. KCR Singer 1.9 80. OAK Blackburn 1.7 84. WSN Josiah Gray 1.6 95. COL Freeland 1.2 If you go by rough groupings of 30 SPers per group, a team like COL's best SP was actually as good as the average upper 4th SP'er grade. OAK & WSN had lower #3's as their best SP'er. KCR had an upper 3. BOS and CIN had lower #2's as their best SP'er. If you go by the 30 pitcher categorization, BOS has 2 lower #2's (Crawford & Sale) and a lower #3 in Bello as their best 3 SP'ers. In theory, if we add two pitchers categorized as #1's or 2's, those 3 SP'er ranked in the 2-3 groups would now be our 3-5's. Now, let's look at the 3 year numbers (2021-2023.) Since so many pitchers change teams, it's hard to do this by team, so I'm going to just go by fWAR rankings. First, IP: 3 pitchers averaged over 190 IP per season: 619 Alcantara MIA 591 Cole NYY 579 Nola PHI Only 19 pitchers averaged over 170 IP in the last 3 seasons, including the 3 above! The others were Burnes (MIL), Wheeler (PHI), Webb (SFG), Berrios (2 teams), Gausman (2 teams), Bassitt (3), Gibson (3), Kelly (AZ), Castillo (2), Valdez (HOU), Cease (CWS), Giolito (3), Monty (3), Lyles (3), Morton (ATL), Gallen (AZ) (PHI & AZ have two on this list, so only 17 teams had 1+ SP with 170+ IP per year, average. That's about half.) Here is an arbitrary categorization of the best fWAR SP'ers since 2021: (remember, some very good younger pitchers did not pitch all 3 years and could be better than some, listed here. Some were injured and may not be going forward. Some were not injured and may get hurt going forward.) fWAR Top 10 14+: Wheeler, Gausman, Burnes, Nola 11-13.9: Cole, Webb, Alcantara, Cease, Scherzer, Rodon Next 11: 10-10.9: Castillo, Ohtani, Gallen, Fried, Valdez, Mony, Gray 9.7-9.8: Snell, Woodruff, Strider, Lopez Next 10: 9.3-9.6: Kershaw, Urias, Bieber, Darvish, Verlander8.7-9.2: Eovaldi, Peralta, Bassitt, Morton, Musgrove deGrom is #32 at 8.6 and is better than just about anyone in the top 31, but does not pitch enough to earn the value needed to be top 31. After deGrom at #32: #33-46 (7.0-8.5 fWAR) Gilbert, Stroman, Berrios, Eflin, Cobb, McClanahan, Sandoval, Gibson ERod, Kirby, Steele, Suarez, TAnderson The rest of the top 60 (5.8 to 6.9 fWAR:) Giolito, Singer, Skubal, Lynn, Buehler, Wainwright, MKeller, Mikolas Mahle, TWalker, Luzardo, Montas, Jon Gray, Glasnow 61-75 (5.0-5.7:) Quintana, Wacha, LGarcia, Manoah, Javier, Taillon, Cortes, Ray Rasmussen, TRogers, Freeland, Dunning, Marquez, Matz, JRyan 76-90 (4.2-4.9:) MPerez, Senzatella, Pivetta, Garrett, McKenzie, Ober, Miley, Detmers Quantrill, Manaea, Civale, Bradish, Houser, Kendricks, Greinke Categorizing by 30's has serious flaws, no doubt. For example, nobody views Pivetta as a #3 SP'er, but it does show who gives the IP and quality, combined. Other notables: 92. Kluber 93. RHill 100. Houck 102. Springs 104. Urguidy 108. Maeda 109. Sale 112. Ryu 115. Lugo 116. Bello 122. Lorenzen 126. Clevinger 127. Flaherty 128. Crawford 130. Blackburn 135. M Boyd (All over 2.0 fWAR since 2021) The 150th SP'er (5 SP x 30 teams) had an fWAR of 1.9, or about a 0.6 fWAR per year x 3. IMO, we need to add 2 solid SP'ers and have 2 of these 3 things happen: We need to see Bello put a whole season together. (His second half was pretty bad.) We need Sale to be healthy, unless we add 3 good SP'ers. We need Pivetta or 1 from Houck/Crawford to be a solid #4/5. Getting Yamo + Lugo would make me happy. Monty + Gray would, too. More likely, we might add Monty ot Gray plus a Lugo or Flaherty type.

Here is one possible non-outlandish view: Sign SP (Monty or Gray?) DFA Zack Weiss Sign SP (Lugo or Clevinger) DFA Llovera Sign Duvall and DFA Jacques or Dalbec Trade (BTV accepted) Dugo & Mata for Dubon & Urquidy (BTV accepts Javier, but I doubt HOU gives him up for 1 yr of Dugo) The 26: SP: Monty, Lugo, Bello, 2 from Houck/Pivetta/Sale LR: Crawford, Whitlock, Urquidy, 1 from Houck/Pivetta SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber/Campbell C: Wong & McGuire 1B: Casas 2B: Dubon SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Duran & Ref CF: Rafaela & Abreu RF: Duvall DH: Yoshida UT: Reyes 14 on farm: SP: Murphy, Walter, Wikelman, Perales, RP: Schreiber/Campbell, Bernardino, Kelly, Robertson C: Scott IF: EValdez, DHam, Dalbec ? OF: (Rafaela or Abreu?) _____ (Rosier not on 40.)

I'm okay with our catching tandem, as is, too. I think both can still improve. I'd be fine with an upgrade, but I'm not sure we'll have enough resources to upgrade areas of greater need, 2 of which you mentioned. SP SP RH Power bat, which could play... 2B CF/RF (trade Dugo or Duran?) C Maybe even LH RP ahead of C.

I'd like to see a study done on the avg fWAR of every slot in the draft (or grouped by 5's) BY POSITIONs. My guess is everyday players drafted in the top 5, 10, 15 and maybe beyond do much better, on average, than pitchers. HOF does not tell me much.