moonslav59

Exactly, and that is why I feel he must know Sox fans are watching closely. He may not let that convince him to open up his checkbook, but he'll feel the wrath, if he doesn't.

If JH says to Brez, you have $56M or $76M (AAV) to spend this winter, then it's on Brez to get us a top pitcher and a decent second one. If JH says no long term, mega deals to SP'ers, then it's on JH, if it does not happen- not Brez.

No, it's not about the very few who wished we got him. It's about the idea that the $700M given to Ohtani will end up pricing Yamo, Snell and Monty out of our price range. Certainly, the tone here has shifted sharply since the signing. I don't think it's an exaggeration, but I'll defer to you - the expert on the pulse of Sox Nation..

It seems weird that we all knew we were not getting Ohtani, yet it seems like the sky has fallen in Sox Nation upon that news.

I like Monty, too. I've been letting talk about Snell being better than Monty get to me. I hear TOR made a real competitive offer to Ohtani, so I have to think they will get one of the three. If Cohen wants one, I have to think he gets one. That leaves one for BOS, NYY and any other team that wants to spend. It will all come down to JH wanting it bad enough and Brez trying to convince him one of them is worth the plunge.

Agreed, No way we could win with Ohtani and a budget near the tax line. I doubt we could even at the second line for a couple years, before resetting. (I meant to start my last post with this.)

It's going to have to come from the farm, current pre arb player becoming arb players and some kind of turn around for Story and Yoshi. I don't think we are as far away as some think we are. The problem is, we need 3-4 major additions, and with costs the way they are, we may need to use the farm to get 1 or 2. Again, I'm not projecting or expecting JH to spend big, this winter, but if he agrees to go up to but not over the 2nd tax line, and Brez spends it wisely, we can be playoff contenders in 2024. Once a couple of our big 3-5 prospects start contributing, we can get back into the mix, but there is very little room for error. If we trade a top 3 prospect, it better be the right one, AND the return better not be a one year rental or a bust. If we spend $70-75M, we can get two very good SP'ers and more. It's not absurd to think we can do that. If we choose to not go over the tax line, and spend every penny to stay a cent below it, we'd have $56M to spend on 2 SP'ers and a 2Bman. Or, we trade for one of those 3 major open slots. I'm not sure we can do it for $56M, unless we make a big splash trade. There are ways to do it. It just takes the will and the checkbook.

I'm okay with missing out on Yamo, if we get... 1 from Snell or Monty PLUS 1 from Imanaga, Lugo, Stroman, Wacha I might be OK with Imanaga, Lugo & Stroman. If we can't do any of these, it's on Henry, unless Breslow spends the money it took to get any of these choices on other positions. That being said, I'm not part of the dump JH brigade. I might not be, even if we fall short, this winter. We'll see, soon enough.

I liked the Story signing, too. It kept me thinking they were making strides towards being relevant, again, at some point... maybe not in '22 but at least likely in '23. I did not expect us to go over the tax line in '22, but felt we'd do so in '23. They couldn't even do that right. I wanted Devers forevers, but he's not an addition. We finished last for 2 years, so extending Devers not improve the team. It just kept it from getting worse.

Yes, two last place finishes plus the lies compounding upon each other. Hey, you have access to the bigger corner than I do, what do you hear? Sound louder? More in unison? More demanding?

There was probably more than one reason. Certainly, a hedge against possibly losing Bogey had to be part of it. They promised to get competitive, so I do think fan unrest and the chance of dropping attendance and NESN viewership was likely a reason, too. Why I think it was "knee jerk" was I feel other signings, that winter were better deals and at positions of higher need. It's just my opinion. To me, despite the Story and Yoshi signings and the Devers extension, the fans are more restless, this winter than the last three. Let's see if they care enough to be serious about placating the base. If they go bold and fail, at least the fans will feel like they tried. (They'll still be pissed. They'll call for Breslow's head, but at least the feeling of caring might be restored.)

What was left, when we signed Story in March? The Yoshi signing does not fit the bill on the "fan pleasing" meter, but I do think it made it look like they cared more about 2023 than 2021 and 2022. The casual fan just said, "Meh."

Even though Bogey's offensive production has dipped, Story, when playing, has done squat on O, so far. We may need him and Yoshi to shine in '24 to have any chance, even if we add a couple good SP'ers.

I was one of the few who said, at the time, the Story signing was a late, knee-jerk reaction to a swelling storm of fan discontent. The Devers extension had to be done, after we lost Betts and were soon to lose Bogey, but that does not mean both signings were insignificant. We had gone from April 2019 to March 2022 with no signings over $10M a year. That's nearly 3 years! From March '22 to the Devers extension, JH laid out about $540M (about $72M/ yr.) That is not chump change. Again, I'm not viewing that as there being more to spend. I'm expecting the sham to continue, but there is still a chance that spending was just the start of serious plan to get back near the top. Our top 3 farm studs look to be ready by 2025, so maybe he is planning a slow build to the window beginning in '25, when all of Story, Yoshi, Devers and whoever he adds this year and next will be here and still in or near their primes. I'll believe it when I see it, but it could be the plan.

Well, that's what we are talking about: spending just enough to quell a revolt. The Devers extension kicks in in '24, but nobdy is thinking, "We just signed Devers." Keeping Devers just kept us even with last place. Fans expect something very big this winter, and there is talk of "FULL THROTTLE," so it's put up or shut up time for JH & Co. Again, I'm expecting the sham to continue, but I do still have hopes it might not.

$10M pitchers are not minor leaguers, unless they turn out like Richards or Kluber.

I agree. I was working off the premise of someone saying would I be happy if we signed Ohtani at $700M. That assumes $700M was available, and I would not be happy we spent it that way. I can come up with many scenarios where spending $500-700M on others would be way better. Maybe the real questions are: 1. Can we get relevant, again, by spending enough to be top 5-8 and not try to come close to LAD, NYM or even NYY & TEX? 2. Is it possible Breslow can do a better job by focusing on immediately building the rotation and building up our pitching in our farm system, we can get back to relevance by spending like a 9-12 ranked spending team? I think the odds are zero we will be a top 3 spending team for a long time. We can hope and wish. We can say JH can spend that much, if he wants. We can scream at him for not doing so, but the reality is, he isn't going to. We might be pushing it to hope we get to a top 7 or 8 spending team in the next year or two, even with the Devers extension kicking in, next year and Sale still on the books. We need to spend wisely on quality more than quantity, IMO. I may be alone in thinking Bloom did a decent job building up a supporting foundation on the 26 man roster and the farm. I think we are just 3-5 key and major additions away from having a decent chance at glory. I don't think it will take $700M to do that, if we do it wisely, and that does not mean nickel and diming like Bloom did. IMO, Brez cannot repeat signings like Story and Yoshi, although both may help in 2024. He needs to be near perfect with his big moves, but he needs to focus on just 3-5 and not 6-8 moves. If he had over $70M per year to offer, this winter, it can be done. He's going to have to overpay on a couple overpays. When someone outbids him, he needs to kick in more. Again, I'm not expecting it, but even with a modest winter budget, it can be done. It might be close to impossible, if we try to stay under the first tax line, and if we do, I won't be surprised. I will know the sham is continuing for at least one more season.

We haven't been adding "value." We don't need to sign the $700M guy to add value. We could add Yamo, Snell or Monty plus a tier 3 guys and I'd say we added value. I'm not counting on it, though. I think the great sham will continue. Nobody is saying what we have been doing is working, but signing Ohtani would not have worked either, unless JH joins you in La-La Land and becomes the next Cohen. JH let Betts go and didn't even replace he and Prices contracts for 3 years. What makes you think he'd add Ohtani and then spend on the pitching we need to win? You think the idea of him spending over $1.2B is a reasonable theory for us to follow you on? BTW, how is the sending like a maniac theory Cohen used, last winter "working out?" You think the Mets signing Yamo will win them a ring? Hell, they'd still miss the playoffs in 2024, if that's all he does.

I'd add Merrifield, but yes, some might buy that. Not me. If they think O'Neill can play CF, and they probably do, since they thought Duvall could, then yes, we will not pay for another Of'er, unless we trade Refsnyder and add someone like Michael Taylor. If we don't sign Yamo, Snell or Monty of trade for someone like Burnes, I'm calling the winter a failure. We could sign 3 tier three pitchers, and it's still a sham.

I know. That's why I'm calling it a sham and sticking to that belief, if and until he changes my mind. I will add that the Devers extension was a massive payout. It's almost 50% more than the Price deal. That was on top of $240M for Story and Yoshi. $540M spend from March 2022 to the start of 2024 on just 3 guys. That could be viewed as a sign that something is changing. It's even more than he spent extending Sale, Bogey and Nate around 2018. When you look at what was spent after that last clump of signing from Dec '18 to April '19 (Nate, Sale & Bogey), basically from April 2019 to March 2022 was about 3 years of nothingness. The big question is, about whether the $540M in 2 years: is that just the start of spending or the peak of the spike? I'm choosing to believe the sham will continue. We will probably sign Stroman, Lugo and Merrifield and try to con the fanbase, again. If we do way more, I'll start being a believer, again, but I need to see the effort, first.

Zero. I was talking hypothetical to the poster who is wondering why I'm happy Ohtani signed for $700M with an NL team. I would not have been happy had JH spent $700M on Ohtani, because I know we'd be losing, because $700M would have to turn to $1.2B for us to have a chance at winning. Those chances are way longer than us signing Yamo, Monty, Lugo Duvall and Merrifield. This is really a debate on why isn't JH spending like a maniac. If he doesn't spend like LAD and NYM, apparently, we need a new owner. I'm not going to expect that sort of spending. I do think we need to spend up to the second line to come close to relevance. I'm not expecting it, and I refuse to get optimistic about it happening, but it could happen, and I hope it does. If it does, I'll be satisfied we are making an effort. The second part is even more difficult to get optimistic about: Breslow will have to be enar perfect with every signing and trade, even if we spend up to but not over the second line, especially looking at today's market prices for true talent. cots has us at about $57M under the first line. There is not much we can do by trade to bring that number down, except by trading Sale, Devrs, Story or Yoshi, so I'm not expecting that to happen. So, add 19M to stay under the second line, and that leaves about $76M to spend beyond O'Neill. For argument's sake, is any of these plans enough to get us to be playoff faves? Per year salaries A) 30M Yamo, 25M Monty, 12M Lugo and 8M Duvall or Merrifield (I'm not sure we can get all 4 for $76M/yr) 25M Monty, 16M (arb) Burnes (via trade) 12M Lugo, 8M Duvall, 8M Merrifield and $? on a catcher (Then, use the lost Sale money plus the arb cost of $16M to extend Burnes.) C) 30M Yamo, 18M Stroman, 16M Burnes, 8M Duvall, plus a catcher Some of my estimates may be off, but you get the gist, right?

When we went into last winter with an expected, pretty hefty winter spending budget, I felt we had enough to get a key SP'er or two and maybe get back to relevance. Instead, Bloom chose to spend on the pen, LF and DH. The salary cost of top pitchers seemed absurd, then, but now, some of these past contracts signed look like bargains. $43.3M x 2 Verlander $17.0M x 2 Nate $15.0M x 5 Senga $13.3M x 3 Eflin The Seattle trade and extension for Castillo looks like a spectacular trade and sign. Waiting until now to go "full throttle" looks like a huge mistake in judging the rising market costs. If we end up knee-jerking to the point where we go nutty on Yamo, it could end up being a crippling signing, if he does not impress, but we've backed ourselves into a corner, where it seems like we have to take that stab in the dark. I suppose, we could settle on massive overpays for Snell or Monty plus another good tier 2 or 3 SP'er, but again, the timing on a possible budget spike looks like it could be the biggest mistake JH has ever made. How about some signings from '22, when we spent on Story, instead? $25M x 2 Verlander $22M x 5 on Gausman $14M x 4 Jon Gray Of course, I could make lists longer than these of failed sp'er signings in the past 2-3 years, but at least the cost risks were much lower than now.

Even the Dodgers and Mets do not buy every player they want. Every team has a limit on spending. I'm still trying to "get my head around the idea that some Sox fans" don't understand that. They can argue all day, and not incorrectly, that JH has the money to spend like LAD and NYM, but facts are facts. He doesn't. He won't. Certainly, doing so increases the odds on winning, but the idea that spending money wisely is the bigger key than just spending money wildly is a concept that should be easy to "get your head around." Fine, disagree with those who talk about spending wisely, but it's not rocket science to at least understand why we do it.

I agree, and I still have hope. Maybe I am sounding hypocritical, but I do think Henry may spike the budget, I'm just not letting myself expect it or even be optimistic it will happen. I'll elieve it when I see it. For know, I'm expecting the sham to continue. Maybe we sign Lugo and Imanaga, and JH thinks that will buy him another year for the sham. If that is what happens, I'm not falling for it.

My guess is some Jays fans are thankful they will keep Vlad, Bichette and others over one guy who can't pitch. The Jays do not have an unlimited budget, either.