moonslav59

I have to think, if nobody has told their side of the story in detail, by now, we may never know.

Yes. he's almost 23 and maybe can improve his power. A nice OBP is pretty damn good, too. The 236 PA sample size in the majors, spread out over 2 seasons, is not enough to get a good read on this kid, but he did have a .339 OBP. His SLG is .407, but he did average about 14 HRs and 30 2B+3B per 650 PAs. That's not great, but not horrible, either. He had a .501 SLG in AAA (.477 career in 4 years of the minors.) OBP often does not transfer over from the minors to the majors all that well, but his .419 OBP in AAA and .407 overall is really nice.

Oh, you know the budget limit? Do tell.... (I don't drink.)

Pivetta is a workhorse, too, and nobody wants a rotation of 5 Pivetts or even 5 Giolitos. Well, maybe the pen might. Look, I get the point. It is a plus to have innings eaters, as long as they pitch well enough to keep their slot, all year. (Pivett lost his slot for part of 2023.) I'm glad not having to pray for Sale's health, this spring. I hope Giolito can regain his form. He was pretty damn good from 2019-2021. I'm glad we have a promising young 2Bman with some real upside ceiling. We've added some pitching depth beyong Gio, and more depth it always a plus, but I was really hoping on improving quality more than quality- just once. Yes, Gio can outpitch Sale in 2024 in quality, but that is far from a given. The more IP is pretty damn certain.

LOL! There have been a lot of under the radar moves, and one article says we have spent in the top 10, so far this winter. Overall, not counting FAs lost, I think we got more than we gave up. I like O'Neill more than Dugo. I like Grissom more than Urias I like all the pitchers we got more than Sale: Giolito Campbell Fitts Weissert Criswell Judice Max Castillo Nick Robertson, Victor Santos, Drohan and R Fernandez for Slaten, Oilveras, Benitez

I agree, and Walmart should pay their employees enough to not qualify for food stamps.

I'm assuming he has options. 4.4 K/9 in 2023 4.0 BB/9 in 2023 20 IP

I hoped we'd go up to the second line, this year, but I never expected it or even going to the first line. All bets are off on our budget and have been for years, including the year we went over, when it looked like we did not want to do that. When Werner said "full throttle," it did get my hopes up on the budget area, but it's all been lies upon lies. I call it a sham.

It's not just about ending up $10M below the tax line and saying that was the money saved by the Sale trade, and they did not spend it. Or, if we end up $5-6M under and saying we only spent half of the "savings." Many feel, we have a secret budget for 2024. Did this trade mean we will spend $10M more, based on those savings, or will we adjust that budget $10M lower. It's hard to know. Personally, if we end up $5 or more million under the tax line, I'll view it as not spending that money. Remember, we also "saved money" by trading Dugo and Urias, too. Whose money will we have spent. That's what I meant by contorting ourselves deciding, if we end up spending it, or not. When we traded Beni, some felt like the money saved went to sign Renfroe. Others pointed out that we could say it was spent on Marwin.

Prospects Live had him #2: https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/atlanta-braves-2022-top-30-prospects PHYSICAL Tall and physical frame with room to add good weight. Has above-average athleticism and twitch, but is likely to lose some as he ages. This portends a move to third base or second base long term, but it’s not a body that will require a substantial amount of maintenance long term. STRENGTHS Cool, calm, and collected at the plate. Radiates a maturity beyond his years, makes good swing decisions, has an above-average rate of contact, and gets on-base at a plus rate. Best contact is still center-oppo but will show the ability to turn on inside pitches and drive them to his pull-side. High amount of barreled line-drive contact. Shows plus raw power in game, should translate to above-average to plus power production long term. WEAKNESSES Fringe-average defensive player, likely not a shortstop long term, limited speed and range. Likely ends up elsewhere in the infield long term. Still learning to drive the ball to his pull-side, makes best contact center-oppo. Likely a fringe-average runner at maturation. SUMMARY One of the most exciting young players in the Atlanta system. Shows feel to hit, a discerning eye at the plate, and the ability to drive the ball to all fields. He has versatility defensively and an above-average arm. Has true star upside with an everyday player floor. Not a freak twitch athlete but a player with good baseball skills and a fair amount of polish for a younger prospect with little pro experience entering 2021. Showed well across two levels of A-Ball. Likely to end up a bat first third baseman long term with the ability to get on base and impact the ball.

I am certain nobody would take him at his full contract cost. It's interesting that BTV had the value of Grissom at $17M, and the Sox with a net gain of $5.8M balance on the deal. The more I read about Grissom, the more I like him, but we all know about the good things we read about Downs, too. The part of the trade that upsets me the most is about the idea we will not really be spending the money saved on the trade, unless we contort our thinking to convince ourselves we will. If the club was thinking we are losing Sale's full contract, next year and we could add $10M AAV to what we thinking we could pay for a FA SP'er in AAV for 2024, it could make a big difference, but sadly, it does not look like that is how the team budget thoughts are like, right now. I certainly had grown tired of wishing and wishing on Sale's return. Then, we never knew if he ever did return, what would he look like? He did look pretty good in his last 15 starts to the season- a pretty significant sample size, but not really enough to know for sure, he can pitch really well for a whole season. I wish him luck. I liked how he seemed to be a fierce competitor. We seem to be lacking in those types of players. If he does great in 2024, the deal might look real bad, but Grissom has many years to balance out of plus side this deal. Another factor might be about what we might or could get by trading from our 2B depth. BTV has these values for our middle IF'ers: 44.5 Mayer 17.1 Grissom (29.7 AFV) 13.3 Yorke 8.1 E Valdez (20.3) 7.1 Cespedes 4.2 Romero & Zanetello 3.3 Meidroth (3B, too) 2.6 Alcantara 2.3 Paulino 2.3 Reyes (8.5) 2.0 DHam (5.9) & A Anderson I could see us trading EValdez and or Yorke, perhaps as part of a larger package.

I think someone had him as the Braves #3 prospect in 2022.

Name one in "out in force." Business owners all over the world try to maximize profits and don't even care if their products kill or harm people. Telling it like it is does not mean we defend it, approve of it or even apologize for it.

If I had to do a ranking, now, I might rank teams like this: 1. Michigan 2. Washington 3. Georgia 4. Texas 5. Alabama 6. Mizzou 7. Oregon 8. FSU 9. Ohio St 10. Ole Miss 11. LSU 12. ND 13. AZ 14. Penn St. 15. Oklahoma

No doubt. I have never thought Sale will pitch the same or more innings than Gio. I would project he at least doubles his IP in 2024. I totally get it. His skill level has been a big issue over the last 2 years. They both are reclamation projects to differing degrees and reasons.

I think his defense at 2B may be the deciding factor and is the big unknown with his overall value. I'm not sure what past history shows, but my guess is many so-so SSs on D become plus 2Bmen.

I could see us trade the "high priced" Pivetta and maybe Jansen and or Martin. I think we'll keep Duran, even if we sign Teoscar (sigh.)

I get that, but recent 1, 2 and 3 year numbers are usually better indicators of future success than 3, 4 and 5 years ago numbers. I totally get the Sale risk factor. I went from calling him Chris Freakin' Sale to Freakin' Chris Sale. The one caveat is that his more recent injuries were not all arm related, and he did go over 100 IP, in 2023- something he has not done since 2019. People want to point to Gio's first 18 starts of 2023, which is fine. Those are promising numbers, but so were Sale's last 15 starts of 2023: 9-6 team record 3.16 ERA 3.41 FIP .632 OPS Against 95 Ks and 19 BBs in 80 IP The guy still has promise. I hope Gio can do well, but he's still a reclamation project to a large degree. Here are his numbers by thirds of seasons, in reverse order, starting from the last third of 2023: ERA/FIP (RED =4.40+ and Blue =below 3.50) 7.14/6.88 3.71/4.89 3.98/4.17 4.88/3.65 5.94/4.13 3.88/4.41 He's had an ERA over 4.88 in 3 of his last 5 thirds of a season. He's had an FIP above 4.13 in 5 of his last 6 thirds and over 4.40 in 3 of his last 6 thirds of a season. 2021 (much better and more consistent) 3.19/3.73 3.61/3.73 4.04/4.03 2020 (12 GS) 3.48/3.19 2019 3.94/3.96 3.42/3.37 2.85/2.93

I thought it was a given that pitchers are higher risks.

Then, we must be free.

I certainly think we've seen a pattern over the years, and more and more of our very best players leaving via free agency. The biggest change I see is that they are not being replaced, in kind or anywhere near in kind. BTW, we did extend Lester beyond his years of control. We just did not extend him again. Same with Bogey. When we let Pedro walk and saw Schill retire, we soon traded for Beckett and later signed Lackey. When we lost Beckett and Lackey, we eventually signed Price and traded for Sale (and extended him.) We also traded for Porcello & extended him. We traded for Nate and re-signed him, too. Had Sale done great, we might be thinking more about the few we have extended. When we dumped Crawford and included AGon (and beckett) in the trade, we did spend that next winter and won the ring in 2013. That stopped happening after we lost Kimbrell/Kelly and then Betts, Price and later Porcello and ERod. In the last 2-3 off seasons, we have spent a lot during the winter, but often not equal to what we lost. I get the part of being a fan that wants to see continuity and keeping our best players helps with that, but it didn't seem to matter as much when we were winning. Losing Pedro is not a big deal, as he was declining and hurt when we let him walk, but we also lost Damon, Beltre (one year guy but great), Agon, Beckett, Lester, Lackey and more but won rings not long after (some the very next season.) It sucked, in many cases, but we rebuilt quickly and won again. That has not happened since 2018, except for the 2021 season that was not a result of good and big winter signings. In the context of biggest winter signings & extensions in Red Sox history, the Devers, Story and Yoshida (counting the fees) signings were among the largest. Devers is the largest. (The Sale, Bogey and Nate deals were not too long ago either.) The problem seems to be we picked the wrong guys to spend large and long on. I wonder if the Devers extension was predicated on the idea that they were going to tighten up the winter budgets to pay for him.

Indeed. Right before the trade we did extend Sale & Bogey and re-signed Nate. We did let Kimbrell & Kelly go, which to me was the first sign of the shift. Finding out we almost traded Betts & Price the summer before is further evidence of the change in direction. It is noteworthy that the Devers extension blows away any other signing or extension.

We've seen some big extensions and re-signings, too. We extended/re-signed: Pedro, Schilling, Papi (many times) Beckett, Pedey (twice), Youk, AGon Porcello, Sale, Nate, Bogey (w opt out) Devers

I doubt we can ever extend him, so yes.

To make it equal, we'd have had to give $5.8M more than we did.