Maxbialystock

Given the usual title of this thread, I think it's also worth noting that your somewhat optimistic View of 2023 has been the most consistent and--dare I say it?--realistic. The hitting is way better than expected, especially without Story and Duvall, the rotation has shown a few rays of hope, and the bullpen just might have recovered. Plus Whitlock and Crawford, both due back this month, should help. Defense is still an issue.

Let's try this. Ted Williams was the quintessential leftfielder in Fenway. He even said he regretted not paying more attention to his defense. But the overwhelming fact about Fenway is that a really good leftfielder is wasted there. Indeed, on most teams the leftfielder is normally the weakest if only because he doesn't have to make long throws as CF's and RF's customarily do. I have not forgotten the terrific grab Sandy Amoros made against Yogi Berra--I think in the 1955 WS.

I have never played fantasy baseball, so am clueless about how much to spend and where. That said, I believe JH is driving the decision-making on big contracts and is loathe to invest heavily in starters--as he was willing to do in the past.

I'm not sure he's bad. He has 2 outfield assists and 1 error. Dugo--granted, playing a much bigger RF--has 3 outfield assists and 1 error and his DWAR is +0.3. Fenway left field is unique in MLB. Granted Sox leftfielders only play about half of their games at Fenway, I still think the green monster automatically reduces the Sox leftfielder's DWAR. Care to guess what Manny's DWAR was in 2007 when he had 8 outfield assists and 2 errors? -1.9. Jason Bay in 2009 with 15 outfield assists and 0 errors? -0.7. Andrew Benintendi in 2018 with 12 outfield assists and 4 errors? -0.6. He's the same guy awarded the defensive play of the season for that great grab vs. the Astros in the ALCS--in Houston, of course. If you play left field for the Red Sox, you are guaranteed a negative DWAR. The exception might have been Jimmy Piersall, who played CF for the Sox with Ted Williams in LF. Piersall once said he should be paid double because the had to cover CF and LF.

Agree.

Thanks too for this discussion, especially on Wacha and Eovaldi. To be honest, I think griping about Eovaldi is mostly hindsight. The guy has really good stuff, which we saw in 2018 and again in 2021, but this is his 11th season, and he's pitched 200 innings once (2014) and 182 innings once (2021 for the Sox). Last year it was 109. In 2019, 54. The Rangers are paying Eovaldi $34M for two years, which to me is a pretty big risk. Right now I almost like our rotation--especially Sale (who has literally astounded me with his comeback), Paxton (still early days), and Bello (also early). Kluber, Houck, and Pivetta have all had issues, but all three have also had more than one decent start. And lurking on the IL are two other guys who have started: Whitlock and Crawford. And despite my whining the past couple of days, we probably have a decent bullpen. I just looked at the Spotrac version of the Sox salaries. Like almost all MLB teams, the Sox carry 13 pitchers and 13 position players. The Sox are paying the position players about $106M and the pitchers about $72M. Of that $106M for position players, $30M is going to three guys on the IL--Story, Duvall, and Mondesi--all three of whom will miss at least half this season. About $4M is going to pitchers on the IL.

Excellent discussion of Yoshida. I too have been impressed. His DWAR sucks and drags his WAR down--and I'm not so sure his defense is that bad. Not that total bases is a key stat, but I do check. To date Devers has 86, Dugo 81, Yoshida 69 (with 7 fewer games than Devers and Dugo), Turner 65, and Duran 55 (with 15 fewer games than Devers/Dugo). I believe those 5 are the heart of the Sox lineup--a lineup that has been astonishingly good so far.

Gonzalez (lefty, ERA 4.42) vs. Bello (righty, ERA 5.01) Yesterday I assured everyone the Sox would lose because of a huge pitching differential--Pivetta starting against Castillo plus a depleted Sox bullpen. moonslav and moonslav alone said the bullpen could/should be fine and that the Sox could surprise us. He was right. But I was even more wrong about the Mariners pitching and the Sox hitting. Yes, Seattle did lead MLB in team ERA, but that didn't stop the Sox from scoring 4 runs in the first inning--with no help from Devers--and 5 more later in the game, also with no help from Devers. Pivetta, who pitched 5.1 innings and gave up 4 runs, got the win. A note about Cora. I now believe he could not prevent being swept by the Cardinals or the game one loss to the Mariners because, while the rotation is looking better, the bullpen basically collapsed. The two best Sox relievers are Winckowski and the closer Jansen, and the Cards clobbered both of them. Thus did Brasier pitch right before being DFA'd. Thus did shortstop Reyes pitch the 9th inning Monday night. Given last night's game, I think Cora's astute management, including the use of Brasier and Reyes, laid the groundwork for a surprising turnaround with Pivetta starting against a very good Castillo whose ERA was under 3.00 in 8 starts before the game. Cora gets no credit for the hitting of course--maybe that credit goes to Bloom/JH, the same guys who get credit for the pitching struggles. The Sox currently ranked 3d in MLB in runs scored and 27th in team ERA.

By all means gloat. It was a great call even with “could” in there. Heck, even Pivetta stuck around for one out in the 6th. The bullpen was flawless.

Terrific win! In my case, totally unexpected: 9 runs by the offense, an almost decent start by Pivetta, who even got the first out in the 6th, and a faultless 3.2 innings by the bullpen. So both the hitting and the bullpen seem to be back--just in time. One more tomorrow vs Seattle with Paxton starting, then 9 in California and Arizona--Angels, Padres, and Diamondbacks. Devers hitless tonight, and it made absolutely no difference.

I hope MLB and/or the umpires never find out about the massive baseball magnet the Sox installed down the RF line in the stands in foul territory. It's working great tonight. They need to remember to turn it off when the Sox are up.

McGuire hitless in 3 at bats, but no complaints about his catching.

I would have said that too--although the answer was/is not much bullpen--and I too would have been wrong. Pivetta was terriff in the 5th and Sherriff in the 6th.

That was an impressive K by Sherriff. So an excellent 6th inning by Pivetta and Sherriff.

As moonslav would say, predict the unpredictable. Just 5 innings and already an astounding game. 4 off Castillo in the 1st--astounding. Then 3 shutout innings by Castillo--no surprise because he's good. Then 3 more in the 5th, all of Castillo--astounding. Pivetta out for the 6th astounding, especially having given up 4 runs in the 4th. But he kept Seattle scoreless in the 5th by getting two freaking K's with a man on 3b. Now we get to see what shape the bullpen is in. They need to get 8 outs with what is currently a 3 run lead. Two weeks ago, a piece of cake. Tonight, let's see. Anyway, a shout out to moonslav who said, "expect the unexpected."

Hmmmmm.

You could well be right. But my guess is that Houck wants to be thrown in that briar patch--going back and forth between starting and relieving--if that's the only way to get to start.

Zowee!!! Tonight????? This I gotta see. However, if Pivetta gives away a bunch of runs early, I will not expect Cora to try to fix it with the bull pen--unless of course our hitters also go on a rampage.

What's that line (Richard Gere's) from the movie/musical Chicago? "Razzle-dazzle 'em." That's also how you get to be an MVP.

Thanks everyone for a good discussion. I'm afraid the actual game could be painful.

15th in runs scored is pretty good. They are also 1st in MLB in team ERA. That explains the 1 run last night and the danger tonight.

FWIW, the Mariners are ranked 15th in MLB in runs scored and 25th in team OPS.

Interesting. For now you see some value in keeping Pivetta in the rotation. I don't, but on the other hand he does have an OPS-against of 1.062 when he faces hitters for the first time. This suggests he would be even worse in the bullpen.

I think he has a decent eye, but I also think he needs to be more aggressive, which is what you are saying.

I'm sure you're right. But that doesn't mean I agree with Cora. I have, however, backed off blaming him for sending Jansen out to close Saturday's game after the debacle Friday night. Turns out Jansen was probably the best choice. Schreiber was not really available.