Here's what I think has to go our way:
1. E-Rod continues to perform like a 20 win starter.
2. The offensive core of Betts / JD / Devers / Bogaerts has to perform like it has the past two years (which guys are hot doesn't matter as much; it seems to average out).
3. Sale, Price, and Eovaldi overall make at least 80 starts and pitch to a decent 4.00 ERA
4. The 5th starter ends up being a pleasant surprise.
5. The bullpen really only needs one more effective arm than it had last year to make a big difference.
6. The first and second base options are strong on defense and are decent bottom of the order contributors.
7. JBJ, if he's still here, doesn't get to play until like July except as a defensive replacement.