Kimmi
-
Posts
27,857 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
4
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Kimmi
-
I like the Guardians as well.
-
As was the case last year, our starting rotation is not supposed to be our strength, outside of Price. Our strengths will be our BP, our offense, and our outfield and up the middle defense. Our rotation won't dominate, but should be good enough to get the job done.
-
Projections tend to change as we get closer to Opening Day. Free agents are still being signed and team rosters are still changing. You all will be happy to know that Davenport's (co-founder of Baseball Prospectus) computer projections have the Sox finishing 2nd in the division with 87 wins, behind the Jays. On a different note, if we get off to a bad start, I have no doubt that changes will be made quickly.
-
I know that some here do not like you, but I can't for the life of me figure out why.
-
As I said before, I believe that Porcello was a Ben move. Almost everyone thinks that Porcello was a bad move. I also believe that the Lackey trade was a Ben move. To date, that move has been terrible. Ben is by no means a perfect GM. None of them are. However, he gets far more criticism than he deserves and not enough credit what he he has done.
-
Good point. I guess that makes Ben the man.
-
I'm basing my opinion on the consensus of several baseball executives. You're basing your opinion on your dislike of Ben.
-
In terms of telling me how good the team is on paper, I'm going to trust Fangraphs over Tom, Dick, or Harry. The fact that the Sox are projected to win 92 games proves the point that they should be contenders because they have the talent, not because of the lack of talent in the rest of the division.
-
It's probably a bit of an overstatement. Ben is no Theo. That said, Theo, like Ben, got a LOT of criticism when he was here for his free agent signings and trades. His strength at the time, like Ben's, appeared to be the farm system and long term development. But once he got out from under the stranglehold of Lucchino, his talent in player acquisitions became evident. The team is at the point where the young core is in place. It's at the point where a few key acquisitions could make the team a contender for several years. Ben was not given the chance to see that through.
-
I am more optimistic about Panda than most, but even if he doesn't bounce back to a 3 WAR player (which even I think is too optimistic), he should be able to bounce back to a level above replacement level, somewhere about 1 WAR. That would be a marked improvement over what he gave us last season.
-
Not true. The audience just needs to know how to accurately interpret what Fangraphs is telling them.
-
Any statistician will tell you not to go to Vegas and bet on baseball based on the projections. The projections are not meant to tell you what is actually going to happen during the season. There are too many unknowns and too much randomness in baseball for that to ever happen. The projections are meant to tell you what the talent level of each team is and how they compare to one another. The Sox have a very talented team and, on paper, look better than every other team in the league right now besides the Cubs. That doesn't mean that they will finish the season with the 2nd best record. That means they have the talent to do so.
-
The idea that Cherington was a puppet is nonsense. Ben (and Theo) are responsible for the great state of our farm system. They were both largely in charge of baseball ops. The problems always arose when Lucchino decided he needed to make a "splash" and he stuck his nose where it didn't belong. Unfortunately, he had the power to overrule Ben when he wanted to. Seriously, if people could just be patient and give Ben the autonomy to run the team, things would work out like they have with Theo and the Cubs.
-
Thank you.
-
We've already established that large players age worse than others. We've already established that Pablo would likely not be of much value in the final year or two of his contract. Mo was 2 years older than Pablo when he hit his decline. Again, no one could have reasonably expected Pablo to be worth -2 WAR in the first year of his contract.
-
This is true. Dombrowski did bring in his guy Wren, whom I think he gives more weight to than he does Hazen. I think Avila is on the right track with the Tigers. Kudos to him for bringing that organization up to speed in the analytics department.
-
As I said before, I bet they use the various projection systems as a reality check. No, they're not going to make a major move based on the projected standings. But if their own projected W-L record is out of line with the others, they are going to ask themselves why and figure out what the discrepancy is. That, in turn, will affect some of their future analytics.
-
This is true. Baseball is such a random sport.
-
Of course they look at projected standings. I have absolutely no doubt about that.
-
Oh yes, he is definitive proof that Pablo was going to decline by 5 WAR in one year at age 28.
-
Yes, it's a consensus among the executives that Abraham interviewed. You are obviously going to believe what you want to believe. I'm going to believe the opinions of these executives who do have some inside knowledge.
-
No, you think you know why Cherington is unemployed. Your opinion is so far over the top, nothing is going to change your mind.
-
This is my opinion, nothing more. The point is, almost everyone here considers the Porcello trade, and especially his extension, a bad move (although I did not). I am "blaming" Ben for this "bad" move. That should make you guys happy.
-
I have read all the data on overweight players. I know they age more rapidly than other players. I am not arguing that Pablo's contract was a good one. I just don't think that anyone could have realistically or honestly predicted a 5 WAR decline in one year. As far as Fangraphs choosing what data to use for their models, that is true. And they constantly test and tweak their models to make them better. As far as other models doing a better job, I have no scientific study comparing them. I have already posted that human projections are probably just as good. However, as I have stated a couple of times already, it is statistically impossible to consistently predict standings with an error better than 6.4 games. An error of 6.4 games would be considered perfect. An error of 10 games is not that bad. You can criticize Fangraphs projections as much as you want, but you won't find anything statistically better.
-
The law of averages is definitely on our side. We have had some terrible luck the past two years.
