Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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You don't know that. He has never been a defensive liability until last season. He has always been average to above average defensively. Last year was a fluke.
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Pablo has always been fat and has always been a pretty good player. It's unrealistic to expect him to suddenly trim down to a point where he's not considered big. That said, the fact that he has lost 20 pounds says something to me about his attitude and his work ethic. For people who have weight problems, losing weight is as difficult as quitting smoking. Pablo at least deserves credit for trying to make amends for last season. From what Farrell has said, Pablo looks good (relatively speaking), and he has really taken his poor play last season seriously. It is not something he is just blowing off. Pablo has been working hard to show fans that he is worth his contract. Kudos to him for his effort.
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I think people have been more optimistic after seeing Fangraphs' 92 win projection. Seriously.
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Well, I think we agree on that. Because Kelly pitched so well at the end of the season, the Sox are going to give him a shot at being in the rotation. Wright will start out in the pen. It would be really great if Kelly could repeat and sustain the success he had at the end of last season.
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Well, that is certainly not the impression that I have gotten from many posters. There has been talk of us hovering around .500. There has been talk of us still being another year away from contending. There has been talk of us needing another top starter in order for us to contend. There has been talk of us having far too many question marks to contend. I'm not getting that warm, fuzzy feeling from a lot of people here.
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At the very least, these projections offer a reality check.
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I don't think the past rumors about Hanley were made up. I believe that there was some truth to them. But I also believe people can change. Maybe it's maturity, maybe it's being around Ortiz, maybe it's a real desire to play in Boston. Or maybe he hasn't changed and he has a terrible work ethic and a terrible attitude. With no evidence of the latter being the case, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
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I'm thinking that the team would probably be better off with Kelly in the pen and Wright as our 5th starter, but with the way that Kelly pitched down the stretch last season, I think the team has to give him another try as a starter. If he falters as a starter, the decision to move him to the pen should be made fairly quickly.
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But do they know how much talent the Sox have relative to the other teams? The reason I posted the projection about the Sox having the 2nd best team in baseball was in response to Jacko's claim that the Sox might win the division by default, being in such a poor division, not because they are actually any good. That is simply not true. There are also some here who have stated that the Sox are not good enough as is to be contenders this year. That is simply not true.
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For all of those mocking Fangraphs projections, I asked this once and got no response. Cameron acknowledged the margin for error in projections and that the 92 wins might be a little optimistic, but he gave a very good analysis of why that projection is not unrealistic. I haven't seen anything to refute that.
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But alas, I cannot educate those who choose not to be educated.
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Good for him. Like Hanley, he's another player that has taken the coach's/management's advice to heart during the offseason. I know a lot of people think he's a fat slob who doesn't care because he's getting paid either way, but I don't think that's true. I think most players have a sense of pride and professionalism in themselves and toward the game of baseball, and are not at all happy when they play poorly. I think Pablo is embarrassed by his last season, and will work hard to make amends.
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Stat people understand not to take these projections as gospel, and they also understand the margin of error. As I've posted before, it's impossible for projections to be consistently within 6.4 games of the actual wins and that a swing of 16 games around the projection is not uncommon. Sabermetric folk readily admit the shortcomings of any type of standings projections. Here's a good quote from Speier's article today: "Those in the statistical business of projections and forecasts do *not* expect that the season will unfold exactly according to their initial depictions. Forecasts are probabilistic rather than absolute, with sizable swings representing a common occurrence rather than an aberration." That said, the projections give us a pretty good indication of the talent level of the team. On paper, the Sox are the 2nd best team in baseball. That's what Fangraphs projections objectively tell us.
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Hanley has reportedly lost about 20 pounds this offseason and is reporting to camp with pitchers and catchers to work on his first base defense. Once again, I'm not getting the "lazy" and "bad attitude" accusations.
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Farrell said today that Wright and Barnes will be competing for a spot out of the BP. Barnes is another one that has options. Right or wrong, unless one is clearly head over heels better than another, it's going to come down to who has options and who doesn't. It would be kind of silly to lose the depth and versatility that Wright could give us by choosing someone over him who is only moderately better. Spring training can't really determine who is clearly better anyway. You have to keep as many viable options available as you can.
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Just read that David Price is a late addition to Winter Weekend. Maybe you'll get a chance to meet him.
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Wright is out of options. Owens and Johnson have 2 and 3 options, respectively. Therefore, Wright either breaks camp with the team or the Sox risk losing him.
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Yes, I realize that betting odds are not quite the same. Right now, it's all I have. LOL
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This is a fair point in regards to Pablo ripping his former team. He should not have made those comments.
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There have been "rumors" about Hanley everywhere he has been. Seriously though, what have you heard about him as far as being a clubhouse cancer or being lazy since he came back to Boston? Not much. He agreed to learn a new position in order to come to Boston. Left field didn't work out, and he is again agreeing to learn a new position. I haven't heard any negative comments from him about 1. staying in LF when the FO was supposedly committed to him at that position, then 2. switching to a new position when Dombrowski came on board and decided that was the better option. He wanted to play winter ball to help get ready for the upcoming season. The FO said no. He agreeably accepted their decision.
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Yes, I know this happened. I'm not saying it didn't happen. What I'm saying is that it was a non-issue. Some people were and still are trying to turn this into a character assassination of how bad a teammate Pablo is. That's what I'm saying is not true. The guy made a mistake. He owned up to it and apologized. End of story. I am willing to bet that players are regularly on their smartphones when they go into the clubhouse during a game.
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No, I don't know for a fact. But when a team is going as bad as the Sox did last year, every little incident is blown out of proportion and twisted into a "bad clubhouse" story. We really didn't hear anything along those lines last season. That leads me to believe that there was nothing to hear.
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I agree, and as I said, I prefer Bradley in RF. That said, I can see the rationale for putting Bradley in CF. The good news is, I think we're in pretty good shape either way.
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I was reading today that Vegas odds have the Sox as the 2nd favorite team to win the WS, behind only the Cubs. Go Fangraphs and Vegas!
