Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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As I said before, I thought the value from Kelly/Craig would be greater than that of Lackey, but I get what you're saying. I really do have to wonder if there is any truth to the speculation that Lackey would not have played for the Sox at league minimum, and more or less forced his trade. Either way, it still goes back to the FO screwing up the Lester negotiations big time.
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Another fine article. Thank you for posting it.
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In the playoffs, that advantage becomes 51.25%, which statistically speaking, is negligible.
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No, they cannot be considered 'exceptions'. What you are providing is anecdotal evidence to support your opinion, which is not really evidence at all. Statistically, there is very little advantage to having the home field, even after considering the home crowd noise, the home cooking, players being built for the park, etc.
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Fair enough point. The 5 WAR (or even the 2 WAR) does not have to be made up at the DH position alone though. Or I should say it doesn't have to be made up with one player. Perhaps we have a DH who provides 1.5 WAR and we improve the 3B position by .5 WAR. (Welcome back Pablo!) Or we improve the BP to recoup some of the WAR lost by Papi. Losing Papi hurts because he's Papi. I just don't think the team will be doomed if we don't replace him with an Encarnacion type. Dombrowski will not stand pat this offseason. However, not standing pat does not necessarily mean a 'big splash'. We should all know by now that the big splashes tend not to work out.
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It was a good game. Estrada pitched really well but his offense couldn't come up with the big hit. Or you could say that Kluber made the big pitch when he needed to. Good stuff.
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This is true. Eye roll or not.
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It was a good game. I was pulling for the Nats, but oh well. I'm happy for Dave Roberts. I'm still hoping for a Cubs/Guardians World Series. One thing about the Sox being out of it, these games are so stress free. LOL
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My job is to educate. But alas, I cannot educate those who choose not to be educated.
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I've said it before and I'll say it again, momentum means nothing going into the postseason. And that, my friends, is not a crack theory.
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Also, 2 of the losses were one run losses. Randomness often reigns in one run games, not to mention any short series.
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Slash, I agree with you on a lot of things, but I think you're off base here. If anything, I think Papi's retirement tour was a rallying factor, not a distraction.
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LOL I forgot about that. I believe you're on to something.
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Agreed. Very good post by Max.
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In addition to what others have said about Papi's replacement not being a replacement level player, our Pythagorean W-L record had us at 98 wins. Take away 3 wins from there and we're still a 95 win team. My point is that I don't think we need to make that big splash move. We don't need to sign Encarnacion. Our team is pretty well set. A couple of tweaks or smaller moves here and there should be good enough. Now, Dombrowski may very well make a big move. But I don't think it's necessary, even with the loss of Papi.
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I'm going with the optimist's point of view.
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Price was disappointing this year. Not awful. Sometimes very good. But still disappointing. I do think he will be better next year. And I think Porcello will regress a bit, but will still be a very good pitcher.
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I'm not hung up on WAR when it comes to Lester. I have said over and over and over that the Sox screwed up with him. IMO, once they screwed up with Lester, Lackey was all but gone too. I really feel like they had no choice to trade him. To be fair, while Porcello is no Lester, he should have been much better than he was last year.
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That was one of the things I liked about it. I was glad that the FO felt like we could compete in 2015, and wanted big league ready players. I thought our team would be good enough to contend. It should have been good enough to contend.
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Here are some good reads on the topic, for anyone so inclined to read them. The numbers just don't support the notion that home field advantage is a big deal. http://www.hardballtimes.com/home-field-advantage-does-not-exist-in-the-postseason/ http://www.fangraphs.com/plus/does-home-field-matter-in-the-playoffs/ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-is-no-special-higher-stakes-home-field-advantage/
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I was just going to say that it's too bad the Nats didn't have HFA. They might have won last night.....
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I recorded the game and am watching the end of it now. LOL I'll be able to stay up for tonight's game!
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Stay strong, my friend, stay strong.
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No, I didn't, but it also wasn't out of the question. I did think that there was a very good chance that the combination of Kelly and Craig would produce a higher war than Lackey in 2015. Additionally, the number of years of control that we were getting for both players compared very favorably with Lackey's 1.5 years of control, and it is questionable whether Lackey would have played for the Sox in 2015.
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Why do you hate big contracts, especially for aging vets?
