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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Ah. I used to get that email newsletter, but I recently unsubscribed at the same time that I unsubscribed to several other emails because of the abundance of emails that I was getting. I wasn't aware that articles he sent out via email were not available online?
  2. From what I've been reading, it sounds like Vazquez is working his way up the food chain because of his defense. He may end up as our starting catcher before too long.
  3. A random order is as good as the traditional line up that most managers draw up. Batting orders can make a difference if they are truly optimized, but that would likely require a manager to bat Barry Bonds in the lead off spot. What manager is going to do that? None of them would do that, not because it's wrong, but because it goes so deeply against what has been ingrained into everyone's minds about what a lineup should look like.
  4. This is a quote from Baseball Between the Numbers on the topic of batting order: "So was Billy Martin crazy? Not, at least, with regard to his batting order. He understood that who is in the lineup is much more important than where they bat. Were it not that the conventional wisdom has become self-fulfilling prophecy—batting order is important because everybody thinks it's important—Martin could have pulled his lineups out of a hat all year long and hardly lost a game in the standings."
  5. No they wouldn't. Most of the managers still do things according to conventional wisdom.
  6. I will have to look more into the topic of clutch pitching.
  7. Even I don't have a problem with this definition of clutch. It's the idea that a player can raise his game to an otherworldly level when the pressure is on that I disagree with. As I've said many times, Papi gets big hits in clutch situations because he's a good hitter, period. All that said, I don't think MLB level players are chokers. The chokers have been weeded out by the time they reach the major leagues.
  8. We do not need a 5th starter until April 9. Pom is likely not going to be ready by then, so the thinking is that we might carry an extra position player, namely Hernandez, until that time. Either way, Hernandez will get his chance soon enough. As far as the #5 pitcher goes, I think Kendrick is currently a better option than Pom.
  9. USA! USA! Another very good game.
  10. I know you're being facetious, but the fact of the matter is that if a manager pulled his lineup out of a hat every day, his team would really be no worse off than if he used a traditional lineup.
  11. If any rookie can handle it, I think it would be Beni. As I've said before, it is Farrell's job to know his players well enough to know whether he should start Beni down in the lineup or not. I'll trust Farrell's judgment on this.
  12. Maybe not, but I think that's a large part of many of the misconceptions about baseball. They are beliefs that have been around since the beginning of the sport, and hence, they are accepted as gospel. Unfortunately for those that believe these things, many of them have been proven untrue. I love the subtitle of the Baseball Prospectus book Baseball Between the Numbers. Why Everything You Know About The Game Is Wrong
  13. I know this topic doesn't sit well with you, and I really do not want to 'upset' you. I understand that you strongly believe that clutch players exist and I'm not going to convince you otherwise. Neither is any of the research. So we'll leave it at that. Unless, of course you want to be drawn back into this debate. In which case I'll rehash all of my arguments.
  14. Exactly Emp. Personally, I think that the Sox will still be a top 3 offense, with slightly improved pitching even if Price is out all season.
  15. Our offense outscored the rest of the AL East by over 100 runs. No, our offense will not be as great without Papi, but it will still be pretty doggone good. As I've said before, I'm a worrier. Not making the playoffs this season is not on my list of things to worry about.
  16. Agreed. Our rotation this year with Sale instead of Price is stronger than last year's rotation.
  17. I agree that losing Price for the season would create an even greater concern about our depth. I also agree that if Price is out for the season and another of our starters is out for any considerable length of time, the absences of both pitchers could cost us 6 games or more. But I would not assume that the loss of Price, in and of itself, would cost us 6 games.
  18. Very encouraging indeed. Porcello, OTOH, not so much.
  19. I don't necessarily disagree with any of this. I just think we need to temper our excitement based off of spring training results.
  20. Tango states that he has found the existence of clutch players, but there are only like 2 of them, and their clutch ability is almost negligible. In other words, it really doesn't exist as a repeatable skill.
  21. LOL There are tons of articles and research on clutch out there. Is there a reason why you have not searched yourself? When I look for these types of things, I typically stick with the baseball saber guys, like Bill James, Tom Tango, Mitchell Lichtman, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and The Hardball Times. Here's a good article on clutch hitting from Fangraphs with links to research: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/considering-high-leverage-performance-and-clutch-hitting/ And here is a link to a site containing links to clutch hitting research and articles: http://cyrilmorong.com/ClutchLinks2.htm
  22. Swihart had a flub that he should have been able to handle behind the plate today, if I'm not mistaken. Our line up is 'relentless'. IMO, the stronger defense of Leon and Vazquez is needed more than Swihart's offense right now.
  23. Such a simple stat, yet so effective.
  24. I haven't seen that piece by Speier, but I would like to read it. (I couldn't find it.) I certainly wouldn't put too much stock in Pablo's spring training BA if that's what Speier is talking about.
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