Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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2017 Spring Training Thread - Everything Sox ST
Kimmi replied to southpaw777's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So far, so good on Pablo. Spring training results are not enough to declare that Pablo is back to his 2014 level, but he has given us reason to be optimistic. -
We have not reached a full consensus. There are a couple who are defining clutch as raising one's game to a higher level than normal.
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But to determine whether anecdotal evidence is accurate, it needs to be supported by statistical data.
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You can call them clutch players all you want. I actually call them clutch players myself. They have certainly performed in the clutch enough times to have earned that title. My biggest thing is that clutch is not a repeatable skill and it has no predictive value. But someone like Papi is such a great hitter that he is also a 'clutch' hitter.
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It is questionable whether Ramirez will get any playing time at 1B before the season starts, due to lingering shoulder issues. He may start the season as a full time DH.
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Most definitely Fisk. And I believe that Swihart will eventually get to the point where he is best overall value of the 3 catchers. However, if the overall value is the same, I'm going with the stronger defender every time.
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It all depends on who will provide the most overall value to the team. If Leon's game calling and work with the pitchers provides more value than Swihart's stronger offense, then I think you need to go with Leon. The same would hold true for Vazquez. If Swihart's defense is solid enough that his stronger offense provides more value, then you go with him.
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Farrell said that Wright would not have a personal caddy. He also said that all 3 catchers have done a good job of catching Wright. Take that for what it's worth.
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No doubt. I haven't had the chance to see many spring training games, but based on what I've read, I believe that Swihart is improving defensively. I don't think a little more seasoning in AAA is a bad thing for him.
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I agree that Leon and Vazquez will likely be on the Opening Day roster, and that Swihart will likely work his way back on it during the season. I just hope that the Sox don't act rashly in making the change if things aren't going as planned. They need to be patient and give Swihart the time he needs to develop defensively.
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Fixed that for you.
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I am willing to call an impasse as well, as I tried to do once before. Just be forewarned, that as long as you continue to post your opinions in here, I will continue to respond as I see fit.
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You are both trying to run with this point to discredit all of the research that's been done on the topic. The idea that people have not agreed on a definition of clutch does not invalidate the research that's been done. In fact, it makes the point stronger, because no matter what definition of clutch they use, the results come back the same.
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Players and managers believe in a lot of things that simply aren't true. A prime example of that is Jeter being voted the Gold Glove winner so many times. Managers and coaches truly believed that he was a great defensive shortstop.
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There is no proof that it does not exist. There is strong statistical evidence that it does not.
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There are several valid statistical studies, each defining clutch a specific way.
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I'm not expecting Leon to maintain his .392 BABIP. It's virtually impossible to do so. I know he won't be anywhere near his June or July last year, but I think he will be serviceable offensively, a good deal better than 2015. Leon saw 68% and 72% fastballs in June and July, as opposed to about 53% fastballs in August and September. The pitchers obviously adjusted to him, and now it's up to him to make his own adjustments.
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^^This.
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Rather than eating crow, you ought to shave your massive beard instead. If you haven't already caved by then.
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2017 Spring Training Thread - Everything Sox ST
Kimmi replied to southpaw777's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I agree, it is often hard watching a knuckleballer pitch. OTOH, I think it's awesome when a pitcher can make a batter look silly at the plate, knuckleballer or not. -
2017 Spring Training Thread - Everything Sox ST
Kimmi replied to southpaw777's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I am actually almost always smiling. I just have to keep a poker face on these threads. -
At the major league level, this is mostly true.
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Actually, I don't think it's that huge of an undertaking anymore. With the technology that's available these days, there are tons of data available at one's fingertips, and this data can be filtered any way you want. It might be a huge undertaking for you or me, but not for the statisticians who do this for a living. It's what they do.
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When someone gives an example of a player who has been exceptionally good or exceptionally bad in clutch situations, those types of outliers are what would be expected in any randomly data. In other words, it's likely a fluke. You expect a certain percentage of players to perform better than average and a certain percentage of players to perform less than average. The actual data of MLB players falls within that statistical bell curve.
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My 3rd post on the topic and post #16 in this thread: That said, even though a uniform definition of clutch has not been accepted, it has been studied in pretty much every way imaginable, using pretty much every reasonable definition of it, and there is still no statistical evidence that it exists.
