Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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Exactly. I often hear that it's not rocket science that your high OBP guys should be at the top of the lineup, and we don't need advanced stats to tell us that, or something along those lines, but until recently, the typical #2 hitter was equivalent to a #8 hitter. So apparently, we did need sabermetrics to tell us that. Even with that, the change has been very slow coming.
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The Sox BP never relinquished the lead, with 6 different relievers coming into the game after Weber. That's almost like 5 additional save opportunities that they didn't and can't get credit for. Nice sweep!
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Even if that is the case, which it may or may not be, you are wasting a lot of potential in that first time through the order. Also, if the #1 and 2 guys are getting on base in the latter innings, the #4 guy still has a very good chance of getting his at bat with those guys on base.
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The #4 hitter often becomes a lead off hitter in the 2nd inning, and will presumably get on base at a good clip. The #5 hitter, therefore, has more opportunities to drive in a run than the #3 guy. Getting more PAs in the #3 spot is a valid point, and 'balances out' some of the effect of putting the better hitter in the #5 hole. That is why, in the end, batting order makes so little difference. For every move you make to gain an advantage, there is a countering effect that takes away much of the advantage.
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Not at all. OBP is king when it comes to the #1, #4, and #2 hitters, in that order. Much of it is based on the first inning, but because of that inning, the #3 hitter comes up to bat with 2 outs and no one on more than any other position.
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One thing about this is that you can't look at JD's numbers in a vacuum. The argument that you don't put your best hitter in the 3 hole is an argument for the optimal line up, not just what works best a particular hitter. It's not just about RBIs. It's also about runs scored and creating runs.
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You all are crazy. That is all.
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I thought the exact same thing when I read the contract amount.
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Matt Barnes said it best. Many people had a preconceived notion that our BP would not be good because we did not sign that big name closer and confirmation bias is playing into that preconceived notion. We need bullpen reinforcement(s), but the bullpen, to date, has not been our weak link.
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That would be more likely if the state of the competition were any better. But there are a lot of weak teams out there.
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Yes, I just posted in the new thread that the most egregious line up error has traditionally been putting a weak hitter in the #2 hole.
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In!
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Swap Beni and JD.
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The book also says that you should line up your hitters from highest OBP to lowest OBP, or in other words, the importance of avoiding outs, in the following order: #1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9
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As far as the #3 hitter goes, I can best say what I want to say by quoting from The Book. "The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of."
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So much to say, so little time. The main thing to remember and that I've harped on many times is that line up changes make very little difference. A manager can literally pull his line up out of a hat every game and barely miss a beat. Historically, the most misused line up spot has been the #2 hitter. This has historically been a spot for someone who can 'handle the bat', and more often than not, had a rather low OBP. It looks like the tide is finally turning on this idea, thanks to analytics.
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Good stuff. Personally, I think the ump should have intervened on the fly thing, but that might just be me. Either way, it's rather funny that the team promptly gave up 8 runs and lost.
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I know. I was agreeing with you. The Sox will likely go on a big run too, but it will still take some time to make up the deficit, unless the Yankees go on a losing run at the same time.
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Not fully true. Look at the change in the #2 batter.
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As annoying as ARod is on Sunday Night Baseball, he had a good point about Morales bunting for a base hit in the 9th inning. The line was wide open and the Yankees needed base runners. The problem is, the art of bunting has seemingly disappeared.
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Yes, but not to the extreme that it is done these days.
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I am far more a traditionalist than most people realize or want to admit. That said, even though I don't like the shifts, the data shows that they work. As long as shifts are allowed, you have to go with what the data says. Personally, I wish MLB would restrict shifting. Also, I agree with you about the 5th infielder being pretty neat. As far as the commentators go, I like it when they talk analytics.
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Just remember, at least one of those 'experts' honestly believes that a fast ball rises. Just because they are in the HOF doesn't mean that they can't be wrong.
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I didn't say anything about causality, just that resting players gives the team a better chance of winning than home field advantage does.
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I understand where you're coming from. My objection is when Cora rests 2-3 of the regulars in the same game. All I can say is that he has his reasons for doing what he does, and it worked last year for us, and in 2017 for the Astros when he was there, so I give him the benefit of the doubt.
