Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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Here's another one, covering the years since 1995, when the wild card era began. The best team in the playoffs each year, averaging 98.3 regular season wins, have a winning % of 55.7% in the postseason. The worst team in the playoffs each year, averaging 87.8 regular season wins, have a winning % of 53.2% in the postseason.
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In addition to the chart that I posted in the other thread, some of the fine folks at Fangraphs also recently looked for statistical correlations between playoff wins and pretty much any other factor. This study analyzed data from every playoff team from 1996 to 2015. They came up empty. The correlation coefficient between regular season wins and post season wins was 0.007. This study even took combinations of factors, and came up with no correlation. The best correlation was 0.063.
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I guess it's a fine line, but I believe in terms of the stat stuff, randomness and luck are the same thing.
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Just when I said I was out of this debate, you pull me back in. LOL I am shocked by the results of the poll so far. Shocked, I tell you.
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I went to bed last night when the score was 2-2. Imagine my shock to see this morning that the Nats won that game 12-3. I figured the Nats could very well take 1 of the 2 games in Houston, but I never imagined that they'd win both. -
Unacceptable by fandom, plus I can't see Henry being okay with having a non-competitive team while trying to reset. With so many players still under contract for next season, it doesn't make much sense to get rid of your two biggest offensive weapons.
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I just wish the games didn't start so late. In addition to the later start time, the commercial breaks are extra long during the playoffs, so I usually only get to about the 5th inning before I have to go to bed. I watch the game the next afternoon, but by then, I already know the outcome. It's still enjoyable, but it would be better if I didn't already know what was going to happen. I would also like to see this series go to 7 games. LOL Also, I hope your son is doing better.
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No, it's not all luck. But it's enough luck that it trumps talent.
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Luck plays a larger role in a short series, including 5 or 7 games, than I think most people realize. Yes, talent and skill are important too, but when you're talking about one series, randomness often trumps anything else.
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Your numbers do not show a very clear correlation. You posted some anecdotal data to support your opinion. Showing a statistical correlation is a different story. The factor that has the highest correlation to post season wins is regular season wins, but even that correlation is pretty weak. We will have to agree to disagree on this.
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I 100% agree.
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"Always" is a bit of a strong word, I agree. I realize that sometimes the deal works out. For me, it is far too often that the deal becomes a bad contract sooner rather than later, so for me, the word 'always' applies.
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That sounds realistic. I just can't see the Sox trading Betts and JD (if he opts in) before the season starts.
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I was impressed with the way Scherzer gutted it out and kept his team in the game when he didn't have his best stuff. I very much enjoyed that game.
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I had the very same observation last night, actually this morning when I finished watching the game. If he was running hard all the way, it very well could have been a tie game going into the 9th.
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No, that's not what I'm implying at all. Luck has a lot to do with the results. There was a lot more that went into the games than just the bullpen being overexposed. The Twins won 101 games this season, only 2 fewer than the Yankees. Yet, they were steamrolled by the Yankees. Randomness. You are often making posts about chalking it up to "s*** happens". Are you now just tossing randomness out the window?
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I believe the Sox will wait until next year to reset.
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I am all about keeping JBJ. However, if Henry is truly going to reset, non-tendering or trading him makes the most sense. I am opposed to it, but it makes the most sense.
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It absolutely made sense to give JD some reps at 1B. There might be some valid reason why it was not done, but it's not like we would have had him playing 1B every day. Maybe they'll consider it this offseason.
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Build a team that can get to the playoffs. What happens once there is largely a matter of luck.
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There is more data to consider than just how many of the World Series were won by the top 2 teams. For instance, when the top team won the WS, maybe the 2nd best team was eliminated in the LDS in 3 games. I'm sticking with the data provided in the chart that I posted, which encompasses all postseason teams in all eras. There is no statistical correlation between regular season wins and postseason wins.
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I don't follow betting odds very closely, and don't follow horse racing odds at all. But what you say makes sense.
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You match up well with any team in the regular season. In the postseason, your bullpen got exposed by overuse. The same was likely to happen with the Rays. You only beat the Twins because, well, they're the Twins.
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It's always a bad idea to throw big money at an aging pitcher.
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I think the Yankees are going to spend big on starting pitching this offseason.
