Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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I get what you're saying. The number of strikeouts, for instance, is raw data. However, strikeouts are subject to the interpretation of the home plate umpire, whose calls are affected by bias. That said, when a poster or any other person states that a pitcher has 7 Ks in a game, the use of that raw data has no bias in it.
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I get that. But those biases will not fly among the stat geek community. I'm still not seeing those analyses countering my arguments about things like momentum.
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When there is no correlation between any data and postseason wins, that's the very definition of a crap shoot.
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Here's my example. I was a competitive athlete in high school and college, in a few different sports. I wholeheartedly believed in clutch, momentum, the hot hand, etc. Why would I purposefully look for stats that contradict everything I believed in? IMO, I was unbiased and open-minded enough to let the stats alter my opinions, and they were strong opinions.
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And at the same time, no one can provide stats against our arguments. So if stats are so easy to find to support our 'bias', where are the countering stats?
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^^ False statement. The analytics guys are out looking for answers. They are not looking to prove anyone right or wrong. It does them no good to slant stats one way or another. Also, their work is heavily examined by all of the other stat geeks, and if their is something biased or bogus about it, it will not fly.
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FTR, choking does exist. You just won't typically see at the major league level. Players who are chokers have been weeded out by that level, or if they make it, they don't last very long. Clutch performances also exist.
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There is a such thing as momentum. It has no predictive value, however, in the outcome of the next series, the next game, the next inning, or even the next at bat.
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Thank you. That was my understanding, that the odds makers take into account who the people are betting on.
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I don't know exactly how the odds makers come up with the betting odds, but it's not strongly based on statistical analysis. Winning in the postseason just does not correlate at all to regular season wins, or any of the other categories listed in the chart below, including payroll, for those who think that spending more gives you a better chance in the postseason. The strongest correlation in all of those bars below is an R^2 of .122. In other words, there is no correlation between postseason wins and anything. The playoffs are a crapshoot, or as Billy Beane likes to say, a "gauntlet of randomness". I apologize for the size of the graphic.
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It's a popular topic.
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Puig ?Castellanos ? Trade Benny and Mookie
Kimmi replied to Swiharts Ghost's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He was demoted, not sure what the reason was. Poor play? Which was probably due to being apathetic. -
It is true that the single factor that has the strongest correlation to postseason wins is regular season wins, but even that correlation is not very strong.
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'Odds' was not the right choice of words then. Those are betting odds, not statistical odds based on correlations.
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2017
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Puig ?Castellanos ? Trade Benny and Mookie
Kimmi replied to Swiharts Ghost's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm sure he is an amazing talent. That talent does not excuse being a clubhouse cancer. -
The focus should always be on the rotation. The pen should be built inexpensively, and by inexpensive, I don't mean weak. I don't believe the pen should be the place to spend valuable resources.
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I am so glad that we did not trade for Stanton. Plus, I expect the Yankees to open their wallets this offseason, adding even more eventual albatrosses to their team.
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"Hate" in the sports context is not true hate for most of us. It's just a rivalry thing. I would not wish ill will on any of the Yankees players or their fans. I will take great solace in knowing that they will not be WS Champions.
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First let me say that I disagree that our team did not play hard. Our starting pitching just didn't have it in them this year, for whatever reason. Gloating is not the right word. Celebrating? Absolutely. When your team is eliminated, you pull for your arch rivals to lose, and celebrate when they do. That's just the way it is.
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Post of the day!
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Puig ?Castellanos ? Trade Benny and Mookie
Kimmi replied to Swiharts Ghost's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Outside of liking Puig, I completely agree. One of the last things we should be doing is trading our young, inexpensive, and very good players. -
Of course I prefer having the rings over not having the rings. My point is that it doesn't have to be an either/or situation. The fact that the Dodgers have not won a ring recently and we have four really boils down to luck. Not in the regular season, but in the postseason.
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I don't remember the exact numbers, but the odds of the best team entering the playoffs winning it all versus the odds of the worst team entering the playoffs really isn't that different. It's basically a coin flip. Whether looking at it by season record, best OBP, Pythagorean W-L, run differential, or even money, the correlation to winning in the playoffs is almost non-existent. In a short series, randomness is king.
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It is really more or less randomness that those teams have not won a WS recently. They could just as easily have 2 championships a piece. IMO, the Sox have fielded a contending team, on paper, every year since Henry took over ownership. In some years, it hasn't worked out, but I have felt really good about the team entering every season so far. As a fan, that's really all you can ask of a GM and an owner. My fear is that either this year or next, we will enter the season knowing that we really don't have much of a chance to make the postseason, unless a near miracle occurs, or unless Henry continues to exceed the luxury tax limits.
