sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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The way I look at it - the team needs another starter to get through the season healthy. I am not sure how much impact he will have in the playoffs - but we have to get there without destroying the bullpen. So this helps - for a pretty modest price.
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Nate Eovaldi to the Sox for Jalen Beeks I understand the move. Beeks is a command guy, and might just be a 4A guy. I do think Beeks will do better going to Tampa's run prevention environment. Eovaldi is definitely a Dombrowski sort of pitcher. He gives the sox rotation some more certainty ... although he has a bit of that Joe Kelly disease, where his fastball does not get as much swing and miss as the radar gun says it should.
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No. But if you don't have an actual answer - he is a good impersonator.
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WAR is accurate directionally - magnitude is as precise as the inputs. Because measuring defense is hard - and because the idea of a replacement player is inherently tricky - there is some level of error. As I will note, RBIs are a made up stat too - with far less rigor.
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I didn't watch - frankly it is too long, though from my memory of last year the clock helps. A more varied skills competition would be cool - but I am not sure what that would look like.
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That is pretty fair
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That is a fantastic season - and at that point, really the difference in WAR gets bogged down in noise and the squishier areas of quantification (read: defense, replacement level)
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I think he has been a positive. In a sense we are arguing something unknowable. And - we are arguing something causal about last year's performance when injuries and youth explain it just as well. I am more comfortable arguing for Martinez tangible value (massive upgrade at DH/OF, especially in the specific way the team needed).
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It is super interesting to be in the "players are human" camp - although being pro analytics certainly does not contradict that. (Cora is very much both!) Analytics are great to answer "what happened", "why it happened" (or more accurately the reverse - eliminating reasons why it happened), and a certain degree of "how it happened"). Where analytics fail - where the scouts, coaches, manager and players take the mantle - is how to fix it in the real world. How does the manager implement that? Well, clearly some of that is developing a plan with the org and with his coaches - and then there is the squishy stuff. Of course that stuff matters. And of course it is no guarantee what Cora is doing is built to last. It might be. (I think he was labeled to be really really good at this for a few years now) But Farrell established a different work environment which at times was also effective. There was a resourcefulness and intensity in the last two years - especially last year where the team fought through a lot of adversity to have a good season. (some of that adversity of their own making)
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I have no doubt Martinez is positive in the clubhouse. I have doubts his powers are magical - and that this is much different than talented young players just acquiring more reps and being healthy. It's not like anyone started speaking in tongues and healing blindness.
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I think they will chase hard for the most part. But I don't think you will see, say, the Red Sox change their "Sale preservation schedule" (to the degree they have one) to win the division. I think both teams will still be careful with guys they want to rest for medical reasons.
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I did not give two shits about it anyway. I like the general idea of doing something radical like the NHL has. Not sure exactly what it would look like.
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maybe maybe not - they will need more pitchers as they rotate their staff through. I mean right now, there is virtually no chance that EITHER the Sox or Yanks miss the playoffs. I am not sure how much either team will chase the division vs getting healthy for October.
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Right. Cora has basically managed his starts like playoff games ... see if he can get through 18 batters and then pull the hook strategically. The Johnson-Vasquez tag team has been very useful as a #5.
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Johnson's endurance is not the issue - it's whether Cora trusts him to get to that 3rd time through the order. That might happen - but I'm not betting too much on it.
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I think you just ride with what you have. You can always take an All-Star Game approach to the playoff game anyway.
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This is the hard part. A manager in baseball is like a manager in the sort of job normal folks have. He doesn't necessarily have a direct impact on the employees work - but there are good places to work, and crappy ones ... and certainly management has a lot to do with that. Cora encouraging aggressiveness and having a way to implement it where it has stuck helps. Also - if you believe the reporting - the Red Sox youngsters have good makeup, and if anything are too hard on themselves when the results slip. Maybe Cora is the sort of guy who has more of a Francona-sort of skill, crack a joke when a guy is in a slump - some of that "nothing a ball getting between two fielders can't fix" - sort of stuff.
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I'd correlate it more with Cora than Martinez. Papi left and Betts hurt his wrist and so he went from being amazing to above average/good. Benintendi became a guy who started getting pitched to - that a book came on him because he was no longer an August callup. I remember reading post mortems of Farrell's firing noting that perhaps the team (the kids in particular) needed a lighter touch which Cora could provide, and that seems to have come to pass to some degree. Martinez has been awesome - but it is for his own contribution (his performance and allowing the Red Sox to play Bradley less).
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The gettable guys on the market are warm bodies who can pitch 5 innings. Just like Pomeranz.
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Catchers weren't good last year either. Bradley was worse than last year, but he wasn't good last year either. (OPS+ from 89 to 73) Betts and Bogaerts leaps have been comparatively enormous. Heck, Benintendi's improvement more than offsets Bradley's dropoff. This doesn't dispute Martinez' impact. He has been everything they could have asked for - including being able to provide ample enough outfielding to allow them to not have to run JBJ every day.
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Shields is a useful guy to soak up innings. But - as expected - between age and moving from great pitching environments to a bad one, his numbers aren't so good. Fenway is also not a great place to pitch - even if you are not giving up a lot of homeruns.
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That is more likely ... if they have enough bullpen depth to piggyback starts when Pomeranz returns, that might be the best they could ask for. The trade market for starting pitching stinks.
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I expect that starting pitching is now a menu item - that said, the market for real impact starting pitching is really terrible. Aside from Cole Hamels (and maybe even him by the 2018 results) there is nobody who is really much of an improvement over Wright and/or Pomeranz being healthy.
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And in baseball - games come every day ... if you can prevent small injuries from becoming big ones it helps.
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The best single pitcher seasons after the dead ball era (basically post 1920 or so).