sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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The Hosmer deal was staggering. Essentially the Red Sox are paying at most for Martinez the minimum guarantee that Hosmer was getting. Yes, Hosmer is young for a FA, and yes there is reason to believe in his future. And yes, there is reason to think he is a good 1B (since defensive metrics are range related and 1B receiving is the larger part of the gig). But again, not nearly enough positive to justify the length - especially where the Padres are on the development cycle.
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WAR is a counting stat ultimately - so durability has to matter. Replacement value by definition is an up and down guy basically - the idea is a team of replacement players would probably win 45-50 games. The idea that Porcello's production last year was a win or two better than 33 starts of a 4A guy seems totally reasonable. WAR's problem with pitchers is much different - how do you split the credit for results on batted balls? Fangraphs and BBRef have clearly two different philosophies (and the 30 organizations have their own which differ from that). Porcello had 2.0 fWAR and -0.2 bWAR, and the spread is almost entirely due to this. Slight digression - neither version is "wrong" ... but it's good to have both so you see how a guy is evaluated based on multiple premises and criteria.
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The 4-seamer with backspin carries, the way that a hit ball with backspin does. Over a short distance, that can look like rise.
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He had an offseason to heal. That will help a lot.
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Right ... that said Farrell and Francona were certainly schooled in this stuff too. The communication line seems to have changed. It's exciting - Cora was one of the two or three very best managerial prospects out there, so I am looking forward to seeing what he can do.
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With Encarnacion the fear was the years ... I suspect if the Sox knew Cleveland was going to get such a sweetheart deal they might have reconsidered
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What I like from this quote is being smart enough to meet players halfway. Lineup construction mathematically really doesn't matter much, just like sacrificing a chicken does not actually make you more able to hit a curveball. But it's not worth alienating players (whoever they are) to stay on that mountain.
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He played 2B in high school - he was drafted because he was a terrific athlete. Now he has had some injuries which raise questions about whether any of that was sapped (I just don't know). But I do think the Sox will have no issue having him take some balls at 3B (or even 2B) during infield practice in case it comes up.
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I think you absolutely can argue batting him 2nd.
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Same reason catchers do - and we know (from history with Ortiz and Ramirez) that the DH will almost certainly sit during some of these games.
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Blame it on the coaching staff for not midwifing the process. Ultimately the question is more about whether Vazquez is ready to take the wheel from the jump. That said, Swihart probably can play the corners adequately enough to not be able to stick without supplanting Leon.
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Sox interleague schedule April 2-3: AT Miami (2 games) ... Last of a 6 game roadtrip to start the season, so it makes sense for JD to sit one of these games May 25-27: VS Atlanta (3 games) July 2-4: AT Washington (3 games) ... The July 4 game is an 11:00 AM start after a night game, so could easily see JD held out of this or the night before July 30-31: VS Philadelphia (2 games) Aug 14-15: AT Philadelphia (2 games) ... days off on both ends of this, let's say Martinez gets both starts here Aug 28-29: VS Miami (2 games) Sep 3-5: AT Atlanta (3 games) ... 2 of the 3 games are afternoon starts, so figure Martinez sits at least one of these. Sep 14-16: VS NY Mets (3 games)
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Without a doubt. The injuries have hurt Swihart's trade value - but he is too talented for the Sox not to give him an honest go.
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Yeah - at least in the big leagues there are some ways to work between the at-bats ... take some cuts in the cage, break down some video etc.
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I figure he probably plays in the field in 6-7 of the 9 NL park games. And I imagine he will play LF against a few of the trickier LHPs, where Benintendi can move to CF. And I could see him playing some 1B too.
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As Kimmi notes - differences in lineup construction don't matter a whole lot ... but that is different than saying they don't matter at all. Even a dozen runs over the season can help - and every edge counts in short series. The question really is how can you balance the two goals of getting your best hitters more plate appearances, while ALSO getting your best hitters the most number of RBI opportunities. I think in that vein something like a Betts-Benintendi-Martinez makes sense for your top 3 (get them as many PAs as possible), while putting Nunez and Bradley 8-9, to give them some additional RBI chances. Yeah you are putting your weakest hitter at #7, but I do think the catcher position could end up being perfectly okay there. Vasquez showed last year he can hit well enough for a catcher, and Swihart certainly looks like he could hit well enough for anybody.
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The challenge for managers is figuring out how to take stuff analytics suggest and turn it into actionable stuff. It's not necessarily a matter of understanding or not understanding the analytics. That stuff can tell you why stuff happened and possibly what to do to fix it ... but the how is very much up in the air, especially with players who have been playing a certain way their whole lives, rather successfully. I have a hard time thinking that previous managers did not communicate the analytics - granted it probably manifested itself in areas of emphasis - such as unusual defensive alignments.
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if you are going to put a defensive liability on the field, 1B or LF is where you do it. Hanley's journey from mildly below average SS to comically inept LF is a very rare one.
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He's a liability doing anything but swinging the bat. I could see him getting some run in LF and 1B though (maybe provide some help on day after night games, doubleheaders and such) ... but I figure >120 of his starts will be DHing.
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Well the medical staff is in Boston, and Martinez has had a couple of major injuries in the past ... and this is a lot of money. If anything, I'd think there might be some extra haggling on injury clauses and such. But I don't think this deal is getting derailed.
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I am confident it was mostly that ... that specific injury is so damaging to hitters.
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What is interesting is in 2015, he figured out how to slap it. The next level - which he showed flashes of in 2016 - is laying off of them and getting something to drive. Ultimately, these sorts of injuries while small have shown to have a pretty pernicious effect over the season. Whether it be Chavis on the farm or Bryce Harper in the show - I could see just being able to get some rest having real impact.
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I've long maintained having a closer is more important than who the closer is ... hopefully there are enough live arms that it solves itself.
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Oh he has DEFINITELY shown signs of being a dominant starter (or at least an occasionally dominant starter). It's the injury thing that's the rub. That deal has always been a very good one.
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Let's watch him play in full season ball first. It is hard to project anyone, especially anybody who has not gotten to Greenville yet. From the ESPN profile