sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread
sk7326 replied to StephenCurry30's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
this is true, but even Francona did not do this on day 1. (to go back to the Boston days) He did not do that with Papelbon most of the time, but certainly did it as the season rolled on ... and had no qualms doing it in the postseason. Really - there is an element of human stuff here. The only way to know your bullpen can handle high leverage spots is to put the dudes in those spots. The first 40-50 games of the season are about figuring out what you've got. It's not that the wins don't matter - but there is reason to not use a postseason bullpen strategy. -
Leon is a much more likely trade candidate on both ends of it ... KC needs a stopgap, Swihart is not proven enough for a team who will still go through the motions of trying to contend. Now BOS could possibly extract more than the sack of potatoes you'd probably get for Leon.
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Oh I think today is the "crack a joke, and get back on the horse"
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The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread
sk7326 replied to StephenCurry30's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You're not wrong ... and if this were late August, I'd be totally with you. But in terms of managing the roster - the human stuff, not just the analytic stuff - you almost have to ride or die with Smith there, at least on opening day. I can see both points of view here. I just sigh, shrug, and take some reassurance that Bogaerts actually hit the ball hard today. -
It's a long season, and showing serial distrust of your relievers on Day 1 is a terrible idea. The pitchers sucked today - but it's also not the time to hit the eject button either. 161-1 is still a good season. BTW: What is the longest streak for a team having an inside-the-park homerun in a game. I guess it's more than the Sox current streak - but it can't be that often.
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The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread
sk7326 replied to StephenCurry30's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's a very long season - these are the sorts of decisions I would get angrier about later in the season. In reality the team has to be able to show they can hold a 4 run lead. Seriously, if you can't win a game like this without going to a postseason strategy, that is a problem of its own. In reality - while Cora will say he will use the closer at the best time, during the slog of the season that really means the odd 4-6 out save. Do you put Kimbrel out for a 5 out save on Day 1? Carson Smith HAS to be entrusted for this job. It's a maddening loss. But it's baseball. -
The Yankees won 91 games last year with almost every "variable" they needed to go well actually going well/really well. The Red Sox won 93 games last year with remarkably few of those things going well. The Yankees deserve the hype, but they could easily be worse than last year.
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not reinvent - perfect and measure. it helps to be able to identify degree of this stuff - both to convey to players and in terms of evaluation. i agree how it manifests itself is still age old, but it could make it easier to communicate.
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WE won 93 games without anybody of our hitters having a great season, and a distinct lack of homeruns. There is a lot of reason to think the Yankees have improved. But - that applies to us too.
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The stats don't matter per se. But if there is a real thing which has changed, then it is a different animal. Is Travis executing changes in swing, getting more consistent lift? THAT is what matters.
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With Travis, it seems to have been BP power which has not translated into games ... swing angle and whatnot. Is there a good OBP, 15-20 HR bat there? That is the more realistic question. But Swihart makes more sense for sure, especially if the Red Sox try him at more infield spots.
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Is this related to batted balls or throws from other infielders
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Yes - he sucks by measures which aren't very useful for 1B considering that UZR/DRS does not really account for catching the ball, which is the vast majority of the 1B gig.
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To be fair, his defense sucks by UZR numbers - which is significantly less useful to grade 1B ... even so you are right in the bigger picture
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The Hosmer deal was staggering. Essentially the Red Sox are paying at most for Martinez the minimum guarantee that Hosmer was getting. Yes, Hosmer is young for a FA, and yes there is reason to believe in his future. And yes, there is reason to think he is a good 1B (since defensive metrics are range related and 1B receiving is the larger part of the gig). But again, not nearly enough positive to justify the length - especially where the Padres are on the development cycle.
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WAR is a counting stat ultimately - so durability has to matter. Replacement value by definition is an up and down guy basically - the idea is a team of replacement players would probably win 45-50 games. The idea that Porcello's production last year was a win or two better than 33 starts of a 4A guy seems totally reasonable. WAR's problem with pitchers is much different - how do you split the credit for results on batted balls? Fangraphs and BBRef have clearly two different philosophies (and the 30 organizations have their own which differ from that). Porcello had 2.0 fWAR and -0.2 bWAR, and the spread is almost entirely due to this. Slight digression - neither version is "wrong" ... but it's good to have both so you see how a guy is evaluated based on multiple premises and criteria.
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The 4-seamer with backspin carries, the way that a hit ball with backspin does. Over a short distance, that can look like rise.
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He had an offseason to heal. That will help a lot.
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Right ... that said Farrell and Francona were certainly schooled in this stuff too. The communication line seems to have changed. It's exciting - Cora was one of the two or three very best managerial prospects out there, so I am looking forward to seeing what he can do.
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With Encarnacion the fear was the years ... I suspect if the Sox knew Cleveland was going to get such a sweetheart deal they might have reconsidered
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What I like from this quote is being smart enough to meet players halfway. Lineup construction mathematically really doesn't matter much, just like sacrificing a chicken does not actually make you more able to hit a curveball. But it's not worth alienating players (whoever they are) to stay on that mountain.
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He played 2B in high school - he was drafted because he was a terrific athlete. Now he has had some injuries which raise questions about whether any of that was sapped (I just don't know). But I do think the Sox will have no issue having him take some balls at 3B (or even 2B) during infield practice in case it comes up.
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I think you absolutely can argue batting him 2nd.
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Same reason catchers do - and we know (from history with Ortiz and Ramirez) that the DH will almost certainly sit during some of these games.
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Blame it on the coaching staff for not midwifing the process. Ultimately the question is more about whether Vazquez is ready to take the wheel from the jump. That said, Swihart probably can play the corners adequately enough to not be able to stick without supplanting Leon.