sk7326

At $150-200, I'd doubt it myself. That said, a deal could still get him into FA at a younger age than Baez is - so who knows?

They really want to do that joint custody thing with Montreal!

Damon was a meh CF defensively - clear he was about the bat. Ellsbury became a very good CF - but his injuries meant he had basically two all-world level seasons, and the Red Sox got his last one. Crisp was a good CF when they had him, probably the best rangewise of the lot. Bradley's arm plus his smarts made him fantastic. Just became hard to keep due to his spectacular volatility on the offensive side. That said, in my lifetime (I started in 1985 or so), I'd probably put the 2013 version of Ellsbury at #1 as a total package on both sides of the ball.

Interesting if Franco takes it - it's an obvious move for Tampa but that's probably shortchanging him given what he'd likely clear in arbitration .

Right - the QO was a no brainer. I think the Red Sox would have been very happy with Rodriguez coming back for 1/18.6M. I think the 4th year is where the deal started to get too rich and the 5th year was just the cherry on the sundae. Good on Rodriguez though - I think that deal is perfectly reasonable for both sides. I was a little curious whether Rodriguez would bet on himself or not - but given his health issues, 5 years of life changing money is really enticing.

Yes - though that is not a reason not to sign them necessarily ... depends on what the "non prime" looks like. That is one place where signing Carlos Correa for 10 years has a strong business case. The bat will still play if he has to move off of shortstop. Someone like Baez is certainly riskier.

I think due to the CBA uncertainty they are a little bit in flux with some of these questions. That said, for this franchise and market - it's realistic to expect that where they are in a given "window" cycle rotates between ... "could make the playoffs with a break or two" and "I think we can win the whole damn thing" ... at least as April ex ante outlooks. It will be interesting to see what players look for in the CBA negotiation ... if they are smart, they should be focusing on drastically increasing minimum salaries and closing loopholes about monkeying with the end of the roster. I'd be surprised if there was a salary cap but something will happen that forces owners to spend more money on players.

In general the odds of any big move is low to begin with. That said the 2021 outfit was a good team (probably a little better than management expected) and I expect management to field a team that they expect to be good in 2022.

Also, just from a "front facing" business perspective, I have serious doubts the Red Sox want to not be in the "star" game AT ALL. While I am not sure where Heyman's sourcing came from on Baez, that was a name that makes sense. - The team has an immediate and near term need for a middle infielder. Regardless of what happens with Bogaerts in the future, there is place for both he and Baez to play in the middle. - Baez is young enough to be buying mostly prime years, and young enough to project a little improvement. (not Pablo Sandoval was also 29 with a similar argument so there is risk of course, though betting on Baez' body is better) - Yes, the team's top prospect is a middle infielder ... but he turns 19 in December. If and when he is ready for the show, you figure it out then. Moreover - I can see management being reticent to spend when the team does not justify the investment. But the Red Sox are good - and the players' performance (and Cora's of course) I think warrant management making an impact signing. While I don't think the team wants to make a habit of signing 32 year olds to big expensive deals, signing a 27-29 year old is a different calculus.

None of the Top 4 guys were "bad" choices, though Cash winning is a little weird in that most of us thought the Rays would be good - and really the masterstroke was Wander Franco looking like an MVP. But exactly what makes a good "managing job" is so opaque that it is hard to get fired up here. I mean it ends up often being the team writers were most wrong about in the preseason. Montoyo is a little weird also in that the Blue Jays made the asterisk playoffs in 2020 - who didn't think they'd be some flavor of good?

Possibly. That said, the infield defense was poor throughout - and certainly the team needs to self study how much value the team's defensive positioning algorithms are adding (or not adding).

Well his first winter the team dealt Betts and then had a .400 win%. The second one he spent smartly because he wanted to build and wasn't sure the team was good anyway. This year there is evidence the team could/should actually be good. If you can fill the gap in with a good player at a position of need, you look at it. And I'm not advocating buying into a 33 year old or anything. Baez is a youngish free agent who can play up the middle and can be a plus shortstop if the team lands on that. And 29 is young enough to still project a little. He strikes out a lot - but in 2021 that is the least of sins. His walks are the big problem and can you increase that and the contact a little. Like, for all his warts he was still a 4-win player last season.

Makes sense Baez can play 2B well too and is an 80 runner. The thing with him is whether the plate discipline can turn. If he is a .340 OBP player, then he is an MVP caliber package. If it is more like his normal .320 OBP, he is a good player but finite. He is young enough to think you can unlock the latter. Now, the Red Sox had a lineup of pretty good approach guys last season - how much of that can be taught is the question. He is the best fit of the top shelf dudes for sure - well besides Correa but let's set him aside.

The walks are more of a bother than the strikeouts. But if he turned his .320 OBP to a .340 one, that is an MVP-level player.

I look at his being an outstanding 2B ... with the infield, the defensive metrics are bad enough that the team should (and probably are) look hard at how defensive alignment and positioning is (not) working.

Escobar is a good choice. Defensively he is better than Villar and on a short deal he makes sense. Baez is likely the middle infielder worth going big on (from a Red Sox perspective) but failing that, this is a good idea.

Looking at the top of the FA class ... obviously they could use Carlos Correa, but so could everyone else, and they likely would want to trade one of Bogaerts/Devers to make it happen. Javier Baez is probably the other premium guy I'd give a superstar contract to because of his ability to defend in the middle of the field. If the team can work with him to improve his batting eye a LITTLE, there is an MVP level player there. Chris Taylor is super interesting for 2B as another Kike type who can play a bunch of positions reasonably well. Scherzer on a short deal would be great of course, though I think with what Bloom wants to do - making an upside/development play on Carlos Rodon might make more sense.

I think this is likely. That said, it is a very strong FA class, so there are likely a couple of true impact signings which the team will look at. I am surprised but not shocked the Red Sox did not outbid the Tigers for Rodriguez. 5 years is risky with his health history. I'd have done 3 years, 50-60 million myself without much regret. While I thought Rodriguez might just take the QO and try to play his value up, that he ran to financial security makes a ton of sense.

He looks like a guy who hasn't pitched in over a month.

Hat tip to FOX for the choice of music there ...

And still finishe 18 games behind the Dodgers. The playoffs are a crapshoot.

When Carlos Correa said "you know what? That was pretty cool, and baseball should support that more." I liked HIM.

Yeah - though it could also work the other way. The league en masse spends the least amount of its revenue on players of the Big American Sportsball Leagues and that's obviously going to be the big issue. The Sox have been not been miserly, but we'll see how it goes.

The playoffs are a crapshoot.

It is worth noting here that the new CBA is going to matter a lot.