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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Tim's velocity drop has been truly alarming. No-no aside he has fallen far from his back to back Cy Young days. Lincecum could realistically not really be a serious rotation worthy starter in the next year or two. Lee is far less risky, even with advanced age.
  2. sk7326
    It's a funny piece of game theory. Lee is actually not that unlikely to be worth the money - easy arm action, very efficient. But the Phillies are very unrealistic about their own position here. Lee is not going to draw that sort of offer (well, he shouldn't) ... even if he is a fringy #1/super #2 sort. Contract made sense at the time - veteran team, well within its championship window. Amaro did not account for the team getting old and hurt at the same time, and did not spend enough time trying to get younger.
  3. sk7326
    No. I'd rather invest the money elsewhere and take a chance with Boegarts.
  4. sk7326
    Didn't know this was an auction, you could be right. I am curious myself though I certainly think $20 is possible though unlikely - industry is getting a lot smarter at looking at the whole package here, and paying for the importance of the position. Basically Ells is better than Bourn and Upton, which are the two best comps. It might be a matter of hitting the market as a 30 year old vs a 28 year old.
  5. sk7326
    I do agree, his durability history is a big problem. That said, the injuries were freakish. Him being 30 is a bigger issue. 2011 and 2013 have been his two best seasons by far - the latter is an elite CF, the former season was the best position player in baseball. Could someone pay him on the strength of this season - yes, and probably in the $15-18 range considering how much money is flowing in the sport and the general "winner's curse" associated with free agency. I would have hard time, and I think the Sox would be ok letting Bradley drive. Bradley, even with his cup of coffee struggles with the big club, has shown such an advanced approach at the plate, that he could be valuable while he figures out the rest of it.
  6. sk7326
    He got it because he played a premium position well, and still young enough to get a little better. Ellsbury does not have the future growth thing going for him, but a lot better "present performance". Him getting to 10 homeruns would be nice, but the extra base hits aren't particularly lacking. Michael Bourn is another comp - he got $12M on the back of basically defense and speed and a career year at the plate though he did not get on base as frequently as Ellsbury has nor has he stolen bases as efficiently. Ellsbury looks quite good by comparison. BTW: I'd let him go, but his production this season would be something I'd be delighted with if Bradley could approximate it.
  7. sk7326
    Note: "Nearly" untouchable. A half step behind the other prospects because of how much less predictable pitchers are in general. Results have definitely been coming around, I phrased that wrong. Control has not been great and still in Single-A. I wouldn't deal him without a really good guy coming back - but pitchers below AA are easier to talk than position players at AA and above.
  8. sk7326
    A guy who gets on base at a high clip (with a better approach than he has shown in younger days), with good power (on a 30 double, 10 triple sort of pace) and delivers excellent performance at one of the two or three most important positions on the diamond? Without a doubt the industry is paying for that - if he were a LF, this is a totally different conversation.
  9. sk7326
    Edes reporting Sox still very seriously kicking tires on Cliff Lee - which is just good business. Of course he is 35 so you don't bet the farm on him - you have to use your ability to take his contract as a carrot here. No way do you give up Boegarts, Bradley or Cecchini for him. Owens? I'd prefer not - but he is at least arguable (prospect ranking largely upside and projection based - he still has a quite a bit of actual development before the results match the stuff). But a couple of the Merrero-Barnes tier guys should be enough if Amaro gets realistic about this.
  10. sk7326
    Red Sox can take a hard line with the ChiSox on Peavy. They can take his contract without needing Chicago to eat salary. That is worth giving them a Merrero instead of a Cecchini prospect-wise. Also, the Sox starters for all the worry have largely been pretty good. I don't feel comfortable going into October with this group sans Buchholz obviously - but they have performed and given this team a chance to win virtually every start and that has to be respected.
  11. sk7326
    Ellsbury has had a fine season this year - one which would absolutely be worth $15-20M a year if he could keep delivering it. Ellsbury is arguably the 2nd best CF in the AL (Austin Jackson, Adam Jones probably could protest reasonably) . Mike Trout is the best all around player in the sport - as a 21 year old. There is no comparison.
  12. sk7326
    Detroit has the best all around team - the run differentials have been a strong indicator, though their division is less than special. Tampa has a very very October friendly club with all of that bat-missing pitching. Oakland is a dangerous team because of their bat missing pitching and a ballpark which plays to their strengths. Texas is always a factor too. Honestly the AL is pretty wide open this year. Sox have had some measure of success against all of the contenders. Key in October is swing and miss pitching and being able to grind out good at bats. Red Sox can do both, and definitely the latter. Also - winning the World Series is about 3.5 good weeks of baseball. Get in the tournament, see what happens. Our team can absolutely contend.
  13. sk7326
    Gotta be careful with eyeing relievers. Performance is so wildly fluctuating that I don't consider any of them to really be dependable. Also, have to watch what we pay for 20 innings of value.
  14. sk7326
    Always better off having more. Coming down the stretch the salaries don't matter. It's sunk cost. Also, with Buchholz coming back (assuming), I could see doing a little 6-man rotation, especially since makeup dates and such can gobble up off days from here on out.
  15. sk7326
    Just like in football - you can't catch everything. Now with the push for retroactive punishment of folks (with evidence that may or may not be great - and a lot of leaked testimony which is a significant violation of the entire agreement), it is clear baseball and the media have a serious fetish about this issue and trying to whitewash the past. I had no problem with Braun's suspension getting overturned. The agreement the union and players had gave the players due process - union were vigilant about protecting the player's rights here (who else was going to). But clearly he has a problem with this stuff, not letting an escape from the law sate him.
  16. sk7326
    Single contracts no - but industry trends, probably. Upton's contract was not amazingly bad for what he is - he has been terrible since signing it, but quality CFs with pop don't grow on trees and as the sport has gotten better at measuring defense his skillset became more valuable. I mean Ryan Dempster was clearly a $12M pitcher and his contract was a steal when you consider how much the industry was paying for durable workhorses. BTW: also a big reason Lester will get paid this offseason - even in his current form, starters who never get hurt have a significant value that teams are paying good money for.
  17. sk7326
    BJ Upton got 5/85. Ellsbury is a better player even if this is what he turns out. The homeruns have not been there, but the extra bases are fine, his on base has been good and he has been a factor on the bases. He also plays an elite CF. If this season were his benchmark year, that's a 20M dude, in a world where the money is flowing.
  18. sk7326
    He did - sort of. He and Hoyer were co-GMs at the time of the deal.
  19. sk7326
    WAR's win values are interesting - but really a global average/rule of thumb. It still depends on individual markets. For Tampa, the value of wins are really low. I am not sure that anybody can generate eyeballs/gate in that market - so Tampa has to stick with the college football route (continual development, some guys will leave). For Boston or New York, it's probably low to a point (not sure how much being a 70-80 win team moves the needle there either way) but can get very valuable quickly. For Pittsburgh, a good market that has not won in eons - the value of a playoff berth could be enormous.
  20. sk7326
    Mauer is an interesting deal. Clearly he was identified and paid as a franchise player. He was the best catcher in the league by a long way before his injuries piled up (and that's always a huge risk with the position). His MVP was very much deserved and he was one of the best players in the league - but always with that "when healthy" caveat like Tulo. I think it makes sense for the Twins - they can't just let all of their players go to free agency and retain credibility with their fans.
  21. sk7326
    If Price pitches the way he did last week, not much to debate. But it's hard for anybody to do that. Red Sox just need to be patient. For all the hand wringing about the starters - the pitching has actually been pretty good during this stretch. It could be better sure, but the Red Sox have been good enough to hang if their offense were able to scrap the way they normally do.
  22. sk7326
    I've read 4-5 million per win is a going rate. There is a lot of money chasing less than amazing guys - the best guys are being locked up smartly. That said, marginal value of wins change vary widely by team. The marginal value of wins for the Sox I imagine is pretty low (at least until you get to wins 70+ or so).
  23. sk7326
    Ellsbury is worth the money if he could repeat this year for the next 5-6. Chances are, he won't. His durability has not supported it, and if he cannot play CF the duration of the deal, his value goes down a ton.
  24. sk7326
    Nobody is untouchable. If Boegarts could get Felix Hernandez, I'd be very very tempted. But that is the sort of thing you have to be looking at. Lee is an elite pitcher - Bradley would be an interesting proposition, closer call to me than you I suspect. Fortunately Red Sox have enough interesting depth to be able to make a deal without touching the upper crust.
  25. sk7326
    Oh sure - at some point people can pick them badly. But the worst contracts involve the worst decisions. Some decisions can be defensible without working out - nobody can predict the future. The Howard contract was a bad idea at the time - he has been overrated his whole career. The Pujols contract, Angels were willing to eat the later years for a few more prime-ish years. That was a dicey decision, but not on the level of the Howard one.
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