sk7326

OK, this is interesting ... how about we clarify the argument. Let's say a normal team carries between 10 and 12 pitchers ... 5 of them are starters ... so that gets you down to 5-7 relievers. Are we focusing on the latter 5-7 pitchers? That would be 5-7 pitchers for 9 innings or more of work which is well beyond what most of them are stretched for. So that means going to 10 relievers? That's adding 3 of the De La Rosa-Villerael-Alex Wilson-De La Torre pu pu platter? Now if we are talking about a normal staff with all-star sort of rules - that is a little better, but we know one of the starters has to be held for Game 1 ... and probably would be too tired to pitch anyway (one expects the wild card teams will be too busy chasing to set their rotation). So 4 starters and 7 relievers. There is enough coverage here for a game, but the question of wasting resources and exposing inferior pitchers still lies. I don't think Koji would implode starting and getting 6 outs ... it's the 3-6 outs that Craig Breslow or Matt Thornton have to get that become dicey. Would I be - in a 1-game elimination - willing to pitch Koji in the 4th if the situation dictates? No doubt - but that is another issue.

Well similar numbers but a 20 year old who conquered 2 levels while there are distinctly job openings at those positions (SS/3B) with the big club is different than a 23 year old who is being blocked by the team's best performing position player. Also, 2nd in runs, 2nd in OBP. More speed would be nice, but first base is the hardest base to nab and the Sox do it better than just about everybody. They will be fine. If Vic goes down, there is trouble long term, but they have the depth to fake it and to win a title that might be all you need.

Pretty much. And in a single elimination the quick hook is already there. After all, Tito put Foulke in in the 7th of some of those big Yankees starts and in that Game 7 I remember Torre going to Rivera very early. You don't have time to mess around - as it should be. In the situation you outlined, I'd think you want to get the out with your best guy and then (depending on workload) ride him out or go to a swing starter.

In his September 2011, he proved he could hit potentially. In Pawtucket he showed he could catch. What he has not shown is the ability to hold both jobs at the same time - catching is probably too much work for him. The question is - if he just focused on hitting, could he rake enough to be a passable DH/1B sort. I think it's possible - maybe. But if he is not offering offense from the catcher spot, he offers virtually nothing playing there.

I think fans are always conditioned to be skeptical of their own guys. It feels like other teams have better staff, but the reality might be distorted. Oakland's numbers are good, but you do have to normalize for a VERY pitching friendly context ... Tazawa leaves the ball up in the zone at times (especially oddly enough against Toronto) - which is dangerous in a high leverage situation - but overall has been quite good. Breslow, Koji have been good and honestly, Workman and Thornton for "other guys" in the bullpen are pretty good. What do you want out of your relievers late - pound the strike zone and get some swing and miss. Our top guys have done that (except for Breslow, though he has done it before, and his control has helped compensate some).

What I get for not looking up O'Day's numbers and judging by a righty submariner. At the same time, you look at most bullpens, and a good chunk of the pitchers are there for specific matchups ... putting matchup guys in matchup neutral situations cuts into the FIP numbers cited. I don't mind the out of the box idea. But even if you are stuck with a mid rotation guy for a winner take all game, all hands are on deck anyway - and there is a solid chance the guy can get 4 innings or so out anyway. You look at all of these big games lately - generally the starting pitching has (even with lesser guys) been OK. I saw the Boston Red Sox win a do or die game with John Burkett in Yankee stadium.

Bradley came into this season with a severe lack of reps ... unless he was some sort of Ken Griffey prodigy, hard to start in the show with so little work behind him. The team deciding to leave him down for the AAA playoffs is a reasonable call - there are enough outfielders here for now, and he needs at-bats in important spots (instead of the sporadic work he'd get here). Up here he is backing up two of the team's best players - and he can't really play LF with the relative lack of power the other OFs have to begin with. But he'll be up soon enough, and he definitely I think would be in consideration for one of the remaining playoff roster positions.

Well Cherington has had a bit of a fetish for the proven closer trade ... the A's trade was a dicey one - although Reddick's issues seem somewhat permanent (sloppy approach) an adequate corner outfielder never begets a non-amazing reliever. Same could be said for the Melancon deal, where Lowrie is a starting level infielder when healthy (which of course he almost never is). The Hanrahan trade was more a garbage for garbage deal ... that Melancon has saved a bunch of games does not move me at all. If he has a poor spot as GM, that is it. Converting Bard was not a bad idea so much as not having a plan for it failing and being very indecisive (and frankly, letting Bobby talk to him or send notes or whatever the hell he did).

Getting predictions wrong is a part of life - it's what makes this fun too. If you have a good reliever - and you think he can be a good starter, you really ought to try him starting ... 200 innings of value vs 60 - no contest. The thing is you have to either A) cut bait totally when it is not working (the Red Sox mistake) or be committed to it (the Yankees one with Joba). It's hard to do these sorts of things in a, frankly, insane market like Boston or New York - especially with PR-obsessed management. Yankees should have been willing to stand behind the Joba experiment (and he was very very highly regarded as a STARTER by scouting types, which Bard never really was) and not be wishy washy about it. Fortunately of course, they screwed that up.

The choice is between 12 or 13 pitchers - which includes mop up guys and matchup guys. You mentioned Baltimore's great bullpen - part of it was a guy like O'Day who absolutely cannot face left handers. So many relievers have horrible platoon splits (by design) and that is hard to design around. Also - in a 1-game playoff more position players seems like (especially in the NL) a much much more useful roster decision. Pinch runners, platoon hitters, pure defenders. Starting immediately with the bullpen almost ensures the team cannot handle a long game - look what happens every all star game.

Neither of them do - their stuff plays up in short bursts ... like a starter would ... none of those dudes could turn a lineup over more than once. For the most part relievers are failed starters - born and bred relievers (hello, Craig Hansen) are even more limited than that. The all bullpen approach also is very very high risk - if one reliever spits the bit, then you are starting to burn through pitchers very quickly, and do you carry 12 relievers for the occasion, some of those guys with horrid platoon splits? You probably want a starter for at least a little while.

A pure bullpen sort of idea COULD make sense ... for the wild card game, but almost certainly doesn't for the reasons mentioned (your relief pitchers are almost always inferior, otherwise they'd start). And that is only because you get to re-rack your pitching staff if you get to advance. Frankly, for me - it'd make much more sense in that instance to only carry 8 pitchers and load up on specialists (Berry, McDonald) who'd be nice to have for a very specific situation.

Kinda sorta ... a dude with fringy stuff is still getting hit ... even today, Fister had a good stretch, but there was a lot of good contact, poor results. Moore, Price - they can do that to anyone.

The plus-plus stuff is what will keep him employed fortunately for him. A team will take a chance - young guy, something happened. Could it be a buried medical thing, or a mechanical one or whatever.

Life with a lot of lefties - just get thrown a lot of changeups. Team's going to be ok - today was just one of those days.

... this is a very hard lineup to pitch to because there are no real soft spots now that Middlebrooks resembles a major league hitter again. Their approach still paid dividends today! They did not get the hits when they needed them - and some bad luck with the DPs ... but there was no shortage of chances here. We knew this was not going to be an unbeaten finish.

The results on the rehab outings have not been encouraging - but have to take the results with a giant lump of salt. Clearly he is working things out, make sure his arm remains attached to his body, that his pitches still work. We don't know what actual instructions he had for his rehab outing.

September 2011 was at least explained by usual small sample size bullpen stuff. He had a bad month etc etc. Clearly it is in his head, but that doesn't explain the drop in velo and the degradation of his pitches. It's one thing to not be able to locate pitches with life - but the life disappeared after his trek to the rotation. Yeah he has forgotten how to pitch, but honestly, even if he didn't - his stuff now is average when he used to have at least some plus-plus stuff.

Yanks need a lot of help - the head to heads with Boston do matter, but if the Sox can just win a couple of the games that will be moot. Tampa is another issue - we know the "if Boston does this, TB needs to do that". But the three head to heads do put a wrinkle in that. Sox need to avoid the sweep there and things should still be fine. Honestly, while anything is possible - it is hard to envision that we don't know the 5 teams qualifying for AL tournament.

Veras should close this down - but he is definitely a classic case of a good GM and org being smart. Astros took an average reliever, gave him the "proven closer" makeover and got to flip him to an asset to a team like Detroit that was desperate.

Really I think it often evens out, just musing on the possibilities. After all, even the most blatant mismatches (like some of those Yankees-Twins series from yore, or the 2007 World Series) were never really much more than 60-40. This isn't college football fortunately. Also there is the variable of the bullpen - both in actual ability (which is essentially random - few bullpens are good year to year), and how the manager deploys the pitchers. The managing of the bullpen is one of the few truly tangible differences a manager can make to affect on field success. It's one of the things Bruce Bochy did for SF despite being nothing special in a lot of other ways.

Rish is saying a decent amount of preprogrammed stuff about bullpen volatility, on base etc ... all of actually which makes some decent sense. Let's put it this way, he clearly never played the game, but has actually made more sense than Joe Morgan did on an average Sunday Night Baseball game in his day.

I suspect if you can pitch your #1 guy twice it is obviously a good thing. Although I wonder how much of that is tempered by the randomness of a 1v1 matchup. I wonder if getting your #1 guy off the other guys #1 to a game you don't have to worry about would be better. That is, let's say the other team has a true ace and three #3/#4 caliber guys ... would it make more sense to pitch your #1 against the ace, or would it be better to try to move one of the other matchups into a very high probability and let the randomness of baseball run its course with the Game 1 guy.

It's not the pitcher advantage that makes the WC round such a big deal ... it is simply having to play a single elimination game, and having to win more games to win the world series. Division winners have to win 11 games to win it all, WC 12 and play an extra round. Once you get to the ALDS, then I think the other factors even out more or less - especially with a chance to reset the roster for the round.

Things are looking good - that said, 3 head to head with Tampa and 16 of the next 19 in the division (the 3 non division - the next 3 vs Detroit). Plenty of time for a big swing - but the team is cranking out solid effort after solid effort.