sk7326

The results on the rehab outings have not been encouraging - but have to take the results with a giant lump of salt. Clearly he is working things out, make sure his arm remains attached to his body, that his pitches still work. We don't know what actual instructions he had for his rehab outing.

September 2011 was at least explained by usual small sample size bullpen stuff. He had a bad month etc etc. Clearly it is in his head, but that doesn't explain the drop in velo and the degradation of his pitches. It's one thing to not be able to locate pitches with life - but the life disappeared after his trek to the rotation. Yeah he has forgotten how to pitch, but honestly, even if he didn't - his stuff now is average when he used to have at least some plus-plus stuff.

Yanks need a lot of help - the head to heads with Boston do matter, but if the Sox can just win a couple of the games that will be moot. Tampa is another issue - we know the "if Boston does this, TB needs to do that". But the three head to heads do put a wrinkle in that. Sox need to avoid the sweep there and things should still be fine. Honestly, while anything is possible - it is hard to envision that we don't know the 5 teams qualifying for AL tournament.

Veras should close this down - but he is definitely a classic case of a good GM and org being smart. Astros took an average reliever, gave him the "proven closer" makeover and got to flip him to an asset to a team like Detroit that was desperate.

Really I think it often evens out, just musing on the possibilities. After all, even the most blatant mismatches (like some of those Yankees-Twins series from yore, or the 2007 World Series) were never really much more than 60-40. This isn't college football fortunately. Also there is the variable of the bullpen - both in actual ability (which is essentially random - few bullpens are good year to year), and how the manager deploys the pitchers. The managing of the bullpen is one of the few truly tangible differences a manager can make to affect on field success. It's one of the things Bruce Bochy did for SF despite being nothing special in a lot of other ways.

Rish is saying a decent amount of preprogrammed stuff about bullpen volatility, on base etc ... all of actually which makes some decent sense. Let's put it this way, he clearly never played the game, but has actually made more sense than Joe Morgan did on an average Sunday Night Baseball game in his day.

I suspect if you can pitch your #1 guy twice it is obviously a good thing. Although I wonder how much of that is tempered by the randomness of a 1v1 matchup. I wonder if getting your #1 guy off the other guys #1 to a game you don't have to worry about would be better. That is, let's say the other team has a true ace and three #3/#4 caliber guys ... would it make more sense to pitch your #1 against the ace, or would it be better to try to move one of the other matchups into a very high probability and let the randomness of baseball run its course with the Game 1 guy.

It's not the pitcher advantage that makes the WC round such a big deal ... it is simply having to play a single elimination game, and having to win more games to win the world series. Division winners have to win 11 games to win it all, WC 12 and play an extra round. Once you get to the ALDS, then I think the other factors even out more or less - especially with a chance to reset the roster for the round.

Things are looking good - that said, 3 head to head with Tampa and 16 of the next 19 in the division (the 3 non division - the next 3 vs Detroit). Plenty of time for a big swing - but the team is cranking out solid effort after solid effort.

16 of next 19 in the division - a lot can happen still. But they are playing well.

It is a shame. I think what ended up happening is that he was a limited pitcher - it was why he did not cut it as a starter in the farm level. But his limitations did not matter when you become a 1-2 inning guy. That fastball-slider combo is plenty. In 2012, the transition he made personally to try to be a true starter - most notably the change in the heater - did not work. His fastball is plus as a reliever, good but nothing special as a starter. What will confound fans and scientists for years to come is how he could never recover the stuff when he went back to the bullpen - outside of a health problem, there was no reason for him to not be able to recapture his stuff. The command issues are one thing - but you could live with fringy command/control if the stuff was still restaurant quality and it no longer was. Being designated - it will be interesting if somebody picks him up ... I'd claim him, after all it costs nothing to kick the tires and see if he needs a change of scenery.

What I meant was that they might be actual contenders like they are this year or perhaps a step down like 2010 - which can be fixed with a move or two ... with the second wild card of course, you can make the playoffs without being at the level of the other teams, although of course this being baseball nothing prevents you from having the 3 good weeks needed to win the title.

The final playoff roster: Pitchers (12): Breslow, Britton, Dempster, Doubront, Lackey, Lester, Morales, Peavy, Tazawa, Thornton, Uehara, Workman Catchers (2): Ross, Saltalamacchia Infielders (5): Boegaerts, Drew, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Pedroia Outfielders (5): Carp, Ellsbury, Gomes, Nava, Victorino DH (1): Ortiz Guys on DL: Snyder, Bailey, Buchholz, Hanrahan, Miller, Wilson, Kalish With Snyder and Buchholz being activated (or planned on being activated), that leaves: Free Slots (5): Bailey, Hanrahan, Miller, Wilson, Kalish So, of the guys you have read about - McDonald, Berry ... as well as the guys like Lavarnway, De La Rosa, others on the Pawtucket train ... 5 of them will make the postseason roster. I'd expect both McDonald and Berry to make the roster as guys with specific skills (glove and stolen bases). Lavarnway seems like a safe bet, since a 3rd catcher makes sense to have eligible. So two guys left who were in the organization as of yesterday who can be added to the playoff roster. Of course of the three guys just mentioned, I feel most confident about Lavarnway's inclusion. Remember if the Red Sox do not win the division, they have to play the WC round. But the WC round also includes a roster reset before the ALDS - so the Red Sox could easily carry extra position players for the WC game (where you don't expect to need 10 pitchers, let alone 12). Could easily see Berry or McDonald added then for a one-game need.

LOL ... let's put it this way, we say "no way" when all of those "some player for our best prospects (like the Boegarts-Cecchini-Owens)" deals come around - King Felix is the one where I'd listen. Age, resume, demonstrated durability. Otherwise, there's virtually nobody we'd have any sort of chance of landing (Trout, McCutchen and the like).

True - although he can crush a mistake. His power is sufficient - it's not like Jose Iglesias here. But yes, totally agree - his approach is the one thing he does at a true big league level, and that is a place to start. But yeah, you look for players like that - guys who do something really well who can figure out the rest enough to be useful.

Ellsbury going will be tough - you don't like to let go your arguably best player - but his age and projection is tough to make a long commitment to. Also Bradley can approximate most of his virtues with the one that he can't being the least important (the prodigious steal number). The rotation is in solid shape - no aces but a lot of 2/3 caliber sorts. Now, if you WANT a difference making starter, it is not going to come from the FA pile. James Shields ain't it. However, King Felix is, and the Red Sox can easily put a prudent package together - yes it would hurt to lose some blue chippers but a guy like him is why you pile up minor league assets. (if HanRam and Sanchez were worthwhile for Beckett, Felix is a LOT better) Otherwise you absolutely protect your assets - this team is good enough to be a pseudo contender/true contender for the next couple of years without doing anything crazy.

1B the Sox lack depth - but it is also the easiest position to find a productive guy. Heck, a true Napoli-Carp platoon would actually be a pretty productive 2-headed 1B. The Sox can look at a guy like Abreu if they really think he can be a true 5-10 year solution at the position, but otherwise, simply filling it with a stopgap guy or two will not hurt them. Knowing how this team rolls, I'd expect them to spend their money (if they are going to lay out) on the rotation and the core positions. (up the middle while being opportunistic on the corners if a bat like Choo is possible)

It wouldn't be a surprise then would it? Seriously, Nava is a special case clearly, perserverence etc. But also he is a guy with a true major league ability (approach) who got better in other places to be able to be a fringy starter sort. Where you look for surprises is a case of serious raw ability putting it together (see Chris Davis who was always an 80 power sort of guy - just needed to hone his approach and make some contact)

if it's health - it's one thing. if it is just a slump, then he'll be ok.

The PA is happy for sure - it creates jobs. But really this is all groupthink from the Eckersley A's days. The A's ran an elite bullpen that way, it became the only way - regardless of whether it makes sense or not in general. And then you add fan pressure, explosion of sports radio etc etc etc.

To a degree- those sorts of relievers are gone. At the same time, while it is possible this is the best application of knowledge, it could just as easily be groupthink. You don't think that you can get a 100 IP reliever anymore? What if they were 50, regularly scheduled 2 inning outings (like rotate 3 pitchers)? It's the same with the 4-man rotation - there is no evidence that a 5-man rotation really prevents injury, but there is a lot of risk aversion, which is unsurprising. These are the same forces that (for instance) in football make football coaches not go for it on 4th and short nearly enough. The problem is that the risk aversion has created all of these silly 1-inning sort of roles, and results in 11 or 12 man pitching staffs which make a team's bench unnecessarily thin. The best example I tend to cite is Tim Lincecum in the postseason last year - it is pretty clear he is no longer a particularly good starter, but he could be dynamite as a 100 inning super-reliever. But you'd have to pay him enough to make it worth his while, a job without statistical glory but much more value than Fernando Rodney's saves.

The save was made up by a writer to enhance box scores and give relievers credit. It became a subject of arbitration awards - where arbitrators tend to really only know stats casual fans do. Also, when LaRussa made the 1-inning closer fetish such an en vogue thing, the entire balance got shifted. The days of the Rich Gossage-Mike Marshall sort of relievers are gone, and frankly it is a disappointing thing just in terms of how it helps manage bullpens.

Tillman has been a puzzle for the Sox all season, so it'll be fun to see if they make any headway this time. Also good to see if Lester figured something out or was the last couple of starts a pitcher-park driven illusion.

I know Scherzer will win it - and he is a clear Top 2 pitcher this season, so it would not be any sort of travesty. King Felix and Scherzer are the only two fair choices - Darvish is the best of the rest but a definite step down. King Felix has the edge innings, the xFIP is close, and Scherzer faced lesser lineups (just going from game logs and such). Just as a general thing, the volume of innings makes it very hard for a reliever - especially a 1-inning guy - to have a ton of consideration for me. Uehara has been outstanding - and he filled a role they needed filled, with the extra bonus of actually being able to net a 4-out sort of save from time to time if they need it. Farrell's deployment of Uehara has been baffling at times, but that's not Koji's fault.

if Ells can put together more seasons like 2013 that'd be sufficient. If he put together 2011 repeatedly he'd be a hall of famer ...