sk7326

I think in this case, you have to look at the scouting outcomes and what managers have done in using him ... the splits are not conclusive, but he has so few PAs against lefties that I am not sure the numbers have a ton of utility. Basically Boston has gotten 6.2 fWAR from their LF/1B positions for what amounts to (more or less) Mike Napoli's salary. Has been a very effective deployment of resources.

What we have seen I think is that Dempster is pretty effective one time through the order, where he can throw his splitter without thinking about it. In relief the FB could be more like 92 than 89 and he can feel free to throw the splitter as much as he wants. He could be very good for 6 outs at a time. Heck, I think that about Doubront too, but Doubront has more stretches where he just cannot find his mechanics at all.

They did not keep Valentin as a hedge against Nomar though - they kept him because he was their 2nd best infielder at that time. Drew still has a year or two of prime earning as a SS ... he's probably a better defensive SS than Bogaerts is ... he'd want to play and be fully justified in doing so. Now if you want to move Boegarts to 3B and Middlebrooks to 1B, that is a more reasonable discussion - but one I'd still not be inclined to do. The thing is - the track records of dudes who do what Bogaerts has done, continually conquer levels of baseball where he is hanging against older guys, is VERY STRONG. These guys almost never fail - the argument is whether Bogaerts will be a mid .700 OPS sort or a mid .800 OPS sort. As we've seen this season - the Red Sox can survive with some "let's figure it out during the season" in a position or two - and if you are going to bet on a kid figuring things out on the fly he has a good track record there.

This stretch has coincided with Middlebrooks beefing up a dreadful 3B position - and a series of strong, effective starts ... basically aside from a couple of Doubront stinkers - the rotation has continually kept the team and the pitching staff on schedule.

Considering that Abreu is all speculation - I will refrain from discussing. But the rest of the market - Ben (and Theo before) recognizes the virtue of platoon advantage. I don't think Carp is an everyday starter - but there is no doubt he can be part of a very effective platoon. His effectiveness cannot be separated from how Farrell has used him.

The Sox staff is getting HEALTHIER, not the way it was in 2011. 2013 Ryan Dempster would arguably be (next to Lester) the best pitcher Boston wheeled out during the last month of 2011.

Myers can't be making a do-or-die stab like that with baserunners in scoring position ... way to go Nap

Gomes' beard looks very sloppy. Napoli and Ross, really just crazy Santa-thick at this point. Birds have to be living in them.

Nomar *cough cough* ... so you get a veteran guy as a hedge. Good news is the team is pretty good - so it's not like he has to be their best player. He just has to be at least as good as Drew - which is not unreasonable.

I was starving for an answer for the additional pitcher after De La Rosa ... lot of choices, none amazing. In the playoffs, a team has to choose 25 players for a round, and if a guy is replaced during the round - he cannot come back for 2 rounds. So an ALDS injury = stay on roster or not eligible to return until WS. But the Red Sox have 32 playoff eligible players. Now to shift them from round to round - I believe- normal rules for options and such (like moving guys in the regular season) are still in place.

I'd have no problem giving Napoli a QO though ... his production is completely justifiable for the price and a 1-year hitch. Downside is that there might be a superior option on the open market - but no THAT many.

Well what does "get it done" mean? If we are talking about being their best player next season - yeah, that ain't happening. If you are talking about approximating Stephen Drew's production - that is pretty possible, although it might take a while. I agree there is the "good prospect who was effective in a small sample" pitfall. At the same time there is the "guy who has been good at levels he was very young for" thing - which almost never misses. If you are going to bet on a kid to pick stuff up quickly, it's a 20 going on 21 year old who already has a strong track record of figuring out how to play with grownups. Bogaerts is a long bet - but his track record is MUCH more favorable than Iglesias' was.

I am not sure if the new CBA allows sign and trades - I need to read more about that. That is the rub. That said, is $14M a risk worth taking for a sandwich pick? Boras is the game's best agent - he knows that the QO is Drew's best chance to maximize his income in the long term. $14M (and I just use that since last year's QO number was $13.3 so assume the average went up) for a part timer is a lot of money. I think Bogaerts has shown enough in his tour here that they should let him grow into the gig and give him regular ABs. (if anything that has been the disappointing thing about the decision to promote him - although I think Middlebrooks ended up screwing up everyone's plans on that front)

Considering the huge win at Tampa last night - the Red Sox took a large step towards clinching a postseason berth. As such - I feel better about looking towards the playoffs. The final playoff roster: Pitchers (13): Breslow, Britton, Dempster, Doubront, Lackey, Lester, Morales, Peavy, Tazawa, Thornton, Uehara, Workman, Buchholz Catchers (2): Ross, Saltalamacchia Infielders (6): Boegaerts, Drew, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Pedroia, Snyder Outfielders (5): Carp, Ellsbury, Gomes, Nava, Victorino DH (1): Ortiz Free Slots (5): Bailey, Hanrahan, Miller, Wilson, Kalish ========================================================================================= Some questions I'd be curious to discuss 1. Who do you think makes sense for the free slots? These are guys who were in the organization as of August 31 - they were not postseason eligible but because of the season ending injuries noted - they can be added on. This doesn't mean they make the 25 man roster for a given series - but they are among the pool of people that can be chosen. My guess: Lavarnway, Berry, Bradley, De La Rosa, Wright 2. How many pitchers do we carry for a series? 12 or 11. If 11, seems Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, Lackey, Breslow, Tazawa, Workman, Uehara are locks. What about the other positions?

Win was huge - basically clinches our position over Tampa. Even if we lose the next 2, Tampa is still 6.5 games back with 14 games to go. That two game swing earned last night should be enough (barring the usual) to win the division though the math won't shake down for a while.

Well, as far as who starts Game 1. For Detroit, Verlander-Scherzer is a legitimate argument ... Scherzer is the clear choice based on 2013 output, but Verlander has a much stronger track record for managing the workload. I'd go with Verlander myself though it's a 50-50 choice. For Boston it's much the same question - Lester's steady durability vs Buchholz actually being a lot better but with less certainty about pitching twice in an ALDS setting. It's a 50-50 call there too, but those are the only choices to me.

Magic Number formula 2nd place team has X losses ... suppose they win out, they have 162-X wins. 1st place team has to win 162-X+1 games to win the division (162-X+1) - (number of wins 1st place team currently has) = Magic Number. Obviously when 2nd place team loses, X goes up - and then a team wins their current wins goes up. So both drive the magic number down.

Obviously Buchholz needs to be stretched out more. At the same time, clearly he could have pitched another inning without much effort. I think he should be able to get to the normal output by October. Honestly, last night could not have gone any better.

Short answer on Drew: He would almost undoubtedly jump at a Qualifying Offer ... Which is the best reason for the Red Sox not to offer him one.

This is one of the cases where Ellsbury wants to get back on the field, both for his next contract as well as this season. If he misses time it's because it's a real problem. For a guy with a reputation of "not exactly indestructible", playing with some level of nicks and dents is something he'd want to show to keep his FA star shining.

About the best news possible all things considered ... Magic Number 12 for the division, 10 for a playoff spot. Better get his time off now - and Bradley and Victorino can cover it defensively.

With a four month hole at 3B for sure. To be fair, Pedroia has not had an MVP level year like 2008, 2011 but this year is right in line with a typical good Pedroia season (and more or less in line with what the various prediction services predicted). He is still a major plus - bit less power than 2012 but much more consistency.

The question to me is about simply a guy with a significant developed major league talent. Brian Daubach had at least that much going for him (hitting righties) - while Morgan Burkhardt did not. Daniel Nava has an advanced approach and can hit right handed pitching. The question was could he upgrade the rest of his game to "acceptable" to let the good stuff shine through. The catchers are an interesting place to go - and if one of them had some elite glove in them, that would go a long way to being one of those guys.

It's not quite as good an attack as 2003 (where the #8 hitter won the batting title and the #9 hitter hit 24 homeruns) ... but it has been it's equal for sheer depth and difficulty to negotiate.

Easy call - Lester is a clear $15-$16M a year guy in this baseball economy. One of the league's most reliable starters - it is nice to not have to worry about one spot in the rotation. I could quibble that he is not amazing - but quality bulk is still very hard to find.