sk7326

Gonzalez wasn't a cancer - he did not invent Kyle Weiland out of thin air. He just declined in ability in 2012 - and we can call it a legit decline because in LA it has not returned. Basically he went from an MVP candidate to Mike Napoli at twice the price. Similarly Napoli's strikeouts aren't that important - they do look bad though.

I doubt Napoli can get 3/39 from the open market, especially with a 1st rounder. But he is pretty clearly the top domestic free agent 1B. (you could argue Kendrys Morales as possibly the only one close) While I agree there won't be teams lining up to give him $14/yr long term - he should not have that much trouble finding a team that will guarantee more than $14M of his contract, whatever the terms are. Would you pay $14M for 1 year of Napoli at a 2013 level? Without a doubt. Also, I think the Red Sox would be fine with him coming back to be their 1B - Abreu is interesting, but the Red Sox have laid out for a 1B in his "prime" before and it did not go amazingly. It's not a requirement for this team to be good.

Whole point of low risk, high reward is to throw a lot of bodies at an answer - Big Papi is obviously your wildest dream. That will almost never happen. But Hideki Okajima for one particularly important season before he turned into a pumpkin? Flags fly forever, and so thus you go fishing again. The question about "how many low risk high reward guys worked out" is really funny - that is the whole point, that not many will work out. But with something like relief pitching, where guys are wildly inconsistent across the board, throwing stuff at the wall is the percentage play.

If Drew turns down a QO, then it means that he becomes a free agent + your first round pick. That severely narrows the market for him. Basically it's a team like the Mariners who won't have to cede a pick. Given the gambles he and Boras saw Bourn and Lohse lose out on this offseason - he'll almost certainly take the deal and the Red Sox would then have a $14M block of Bogaerts (or a $14M utility player). Napoli has no such problem. He turns down the QO, he is betting he can find someone to guarantee him something like 2/20 and not worry as much about the pick. That is not wildly unlikely. He takes the QO, the Red Sox have their starting 1B then - on a perfect deal, and he's not blocking anybody.

Napoli's QO is a no-brainer ... Drew's QO I think is a no-go ... and Salty I could argue both sides though I'd prefer not to

I did. Sticking with Fangraphs, just because I am too lazy to check out Baseball Reference: Gomes, 0.7 fWAR, .332 wOBA, .230/.340/.418 ... 347 PAs Carp, 1.2 fWAR, .395 wOBA, .306/.372/.549 ... 218 PAs Nava, 1.9 fWAR, .370 wOBA, .306/.392/.452 ... 493 PAs Napoli 3.5 fWAR, .366 wOBA, .262/.357/.485 ... 546 PAs Effectively Napoli has been twice as effective as the Carp-Gomes combination (add up plate appearances and they are roughly comparable). Nava and Napoli are more comparable, though Napoli's ability to slug makes up for Nava's better on base ability. And relative to their positions, defensively this year has been no comparison - Napoli has been a downright above average 1B, while Nava has been a poor corner outfielder. Of course Napoli is better than 2 role players ... in a land with finite roster spots, why use two guys for one guy's job? Even if Gomes/Carp were equal together to Napoli at 1B, why would you split the job if you don't have to? Now, I advocate splitting the job if you can't find a full time stud. But if you can't and Napoli does it for a very fair price, and no long term commitment, so much the better. I think it is clear Napoli's 2010 is one giant flashing neon "fluke". What he is this year is probably who he is - basically the best beer league softball player you've ever seen. But that is a valuable guy - and I think with guys like him, fans see all those strikeouts and confuse it with him not being good. I call it the Bellhorn Syndrome jokingly. We're so conditioned by little league and silly things managers said in the 1980s that strikeouts are this horrible travesty when they are just outs.

Here is thing about the QO decision ... Step 1: If he took it, would it f-up your plans? ... Step 2: Would there be a significant chance he would decline it? (which of course depends on his evaluation of the market for his services with the pick penalty) For Napoli, Step 1 is basically no - you get a guy who'd you'd be happy to start on an exactly fair price. Step 2: Also a yes, because he can probably get multiple years from somebody (with at least that money in terms of reachable upside) So to me the Red Sox can give him a QO without losing any sleep. Would it affect the Abreu pursuit? Not really - at the end of the day they can afford to lose a bidding war for a 1B.

I said "might" - I have not spent much time thinking of it ... but Middlebrooks' ceiling is considerable. If he can clean up enough that his on-base is not a real drag (see Soriano, Alfonso for what a "real drag" is) he can be very good.

Oh he is ... no significant platoon spirit, gets on base at a good clip - obviously most raw power on the team. He is a bit of a "three true outcomes" sort of guy - but from a hitter's perspective, how you make outs really doesn't matter at all.

Cecchini certainly has a good longterm prognosis - Middlebrooks is definitely more the high end ath-a-lete who is figuring out the baseball stuff. We know that with Middlebrooks the path to a solid OBP (and .320-.330 is solid for instance without being amazing) is via good contact rates and whatnot. It is clear how the FO thinks the game - it is also the same FO which promoted this player, with all of the known information on him to starting 3B. So they do also value (and have with draft after draft) athletic ability ... beer leaguers aren't sufficient either. The question with Middlebrooks is whether he can get on base enough to let the other stuff shine through. Looking at his line in September, .289/.319/.578 will be sufficient. Cecchini might have more upside - I am not going to argue that - but Middlebrooks can absolutely be an above average third baseman. The last two months of him certainly is.

Well, power and on-base percentage. The patience thing for a guy like him can't be overstated. Even when his ability to make contact went into the tank, he was STILL getting on base at a .300ish sort of clip - which is not good, but playable for a guy in a slump. He is a good hitter from the standpoint that he has a game plan and doesn't give at-bats away. Obviously if his "batted ball" skill were more like 2008 Kevin Youkilis, he'd be one of the dozen or so best hitters in baseball (like Yook was). But this is plenty good.

Middlebrooks is going to give you these waves. He is not a patient hitter, so all of his offensive punch will be in the hits (or lack thereof). But clearly the power is there, and since his demotion, his mechanics have been simpler. Swing is a more compact, lower half is not as busy. We'll have to live with the fluctuations at the plate, but there is no reason he can't be an above average defensive 3B who gives power and below average sort of On Base. That is a solid starter.

Sox will absolutely give Nap a QO. His contribution this year clearly justifies a 1/14. I think it's not at all bad idea for them - with Nap - to be content for another year. He has old man skills - and if his bat speed goes down another notch or so he is unplayable - so I'd hesitate to go more than a year or two at a time with him. On a team with terrific approaches, his might be the best. What was it Buster Olney showed - Boston leads the ML in Pitches seen - by such a wide margin that 2nd place (Minnesota) is closer to 18th place than 1st (or something)

OK - Buchholz clearly needs to figure out the downward plane on his stuff ... command is shaky but clearly he is healthy and his stuff has not dipped in quality. So the rotation looks to be in good shape, and the "Back 4" in the bullpen is clear (Workman, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow). Figuring out the rest of the staff is another issue - including whether to go with an 11 man unit or a 10 man one. But team is peaking here - oh what a few healthy pitchers can do!

Fun game - tried to steal it with the "other guys" bullpen. Good result either way.

Here is the thing with the Red Sox moves at 1B. 1B is an easy position to fill. Adam LaRoche level production is not difficult to find - and you can cobble together a platoon for dirt cheap that effectively manages that. Look - the Red Sox have managed to basically get (if you use the $6M figure Fangraphs uses per win) $36 million of production for 1B/LF out of Mike Napoli and a couple of minimum salary-ish guys (Nava and Carp). If they think Abreu is a legit solution, they can set a price. Yes they'll pay a winner's curse premium (as you do for all free agents) - but if the bidding gets crazy, they have a very viable alternatiive. That is why QO'ing Napoli is a no-brainer here - he has been a very effective 1B here, and there is no reason to think they can't get another quality year of production from him. (in fact, going a year at a time with him would be ideal)

I am not a Salty fan - and I'd probably not extend him a QO. BUT, there are almost no competent catchers available for employment - and he is one of them. Would I pay $14M for 1 year of a legit starting catcher? The Red Sox can afford the overpay for a year while a guy like Swihart or somebody becomes more viable. I wouldn't call them insane for doing it. I also think they can negotiate a 3 year deal.

Napoli I think would be fine declining a QO. It's a calculated risk but he can get a reasonable 1-2 year deal for near that ... he has helped himself this year. After all you do have to pay his beard too!

Of the three UFAs ... Napoli I think is a sure thing to get a QO. Drew is unlikely to me for the reason rj noted (he'll take it, and do you want that). Salty - on the surface no, but the sheer position scarcity at catcher makes it at least possible.

The Seguin and Kessel comparisons are tempting - at the same time they were guaranteed jobs with the big club from when they were drafted (and let's be honest - both had solid runs here). Nobody has handed Bogaerts anything - he has consistently outperformed people a lot older than he is. It has not happened at the major league level because - well, the Red Sox are in a different position in a September when they have the AL's best record. He is 21, but he did not conquer 2 levels this year on luck. He has had forced competition this entire season - that is the entire genesis of his rise in the system. Some veteran complement makes sense - but there is nothing wrong with planning for him to win the job. He has done nothing to contradict that.

If Drew gets $14M this year and a fair deal next season (say 3/30 or whatever) ... he has made it bigger than he would have in any other context. For him taking the QO is the no-brainer. I am pretty sure the Red Sox will not offer him one for that very reason - and I wouldn't even be surprised if there was an off the books agreement to not extend him one. In a sense (for this negotiation) the QO is off the table, Drew would never decline it due to its impact on his ability to find work and the Red Sox probably won't offer it because it would tie up nearly 10% of their payroll in a guy without a guaranteed starting job.

I am with you on the 7th - though the starters can help there. 8th less so - because Uehara becomes a viable option then. Like all of the other contenders, we need our starters to push us past the softer part of the 'pen.

Well ... Orioles did it with Machado more or less. A lot of it has to do with a FOs evaluation of the guy. What is Bogaerts' worst outcome for 2014 barring injury? That he becomes a drooling vegetable or that he curls up in the fetal position on the diamond when he hits an 0 for 17? If that's the case - then yeah you have to look into contingencies. If it's just a matter of enduring some .240/.300/.370 while he works at it - that is a different deal. I can live with the latter. The one thing you need for prospects to develop is reps ... either at AAA or the Show. If you choose the latter, key is the organization being strong and not letting the various Whiner Line contributors force their thinking. Veteran help is never a bad thing - certainly not doubting that. Though both Bogaerts and Bradley have shown legitimate reasons to be optimistic about their prospects for next season.

I don't think that is quite as big a deal. Breslow and Tazawa are not perfect - but I think a lot of our perception is clouded by not seeing other team's guys. And if the situation is REALLY dire, I fully expect Uehara to get the call then (as well he should). The team has been masterful in protecting his reps and making sure he is not overworked, but the postseason is why you do it. And if it means occasionally Tazawa or Breslow has to pitch a clean 9th after Koji has saved their bacon in the 7th or 8th (granted the 7th is not going to happen unless it is elimination time) you solve that puzzle later.

Erik Bedard is not coming through that door ... Kyle Weiland is not coming through that door ... Tim Wakefield's Corpse is not coming through that door ... Agree on everything - although "lack of fight" is probably an inevitable result from observing the steaming piles of garbage who were forced to start important games. This year - even the less effective starts have at least gotten innings and the bullpen has 4 or 5 reliable relievers. We know Koji will fall off - only because it is impossible for anybody to keep the pace he is setting - but the pitching staff is a strength and getting stronger.