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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    I said "might" - I have not spent much time thinking of it ... but Middlebrooks' ceiling is considerable. If he can clean up enough that his on-base is not a real drag (see Soriano, Alfonso for what a "real drag" is) he can be very good.
  2. sk7326
    Oh he is ... no significant platoon spirit, gets on base at a good clip - obviously most raw power on the team. He is a bit of a "three true outcomes" sort of guy - but from a hitter's perspective, how you make outs really doesn't matter at all.
  3. sk7326
    Cecchini certainly has a good longterm prognosis - Middlebrooks is definitely more the high end ath-a-lete who is figuring out the baseball stuff. We know that with Middlebrooks the path to a solid OBP (and .320-.330 is solid for instance without being amazing) is via good contact rates and whatnot. It is clear how the FO thinks the game - it is also the same FO which promoted this player, with all of the known information on him to starting 3B. So they do also value (and have with draft after draft) athletic ability ... beer leaguers aren't sufficient either. The question with Middlebrooks is whether he can get on base enough to let the other stuff shine through. Looking at his line in September, .289/.319/.578 will be sufficient. Cecchini might have more upside - I am not going to argue that - but Middlebrooks can absolutely be an above average third baseman. The last two months of him certainly is.
  4. sk7326
    Well, power and on-base percentage. The patience thing for a guy like him can't be overstated. Even when his ability to make contact went into the tank, he was STILL getting on base at a .300ish sort of clip - which is not good, but playable for a guy in a slump. He is a good hitter from the standpoint that he has a game plan and doesn't give at-bats away. Obviously if his "batted ball" skill were more like 2008 Kevin Youkilis, he'd be one of the dozen or so best hitters in baseball (like Yook was). But this is plenty good.
  5. sk7326
    Middlebrooks is going to give you these waves. He is not a patient hitter, so all of his offensive punch will be in the hits (or lack thereof). But clearly the power is there, and since his demotion, his mechanics have been simpler. Swing is a more compact, lower half is not as busy. We'll have to live with the fluctuations at the plate, but there is no reason he can't be an above average defensive 3B who gives power and below average sort of On Base. That is a solid starter.
  6. sk7326
    Sox will absolutely give Nap a QO. His contribution this year clearly justifies a 1/14. I think it's not at all bad idea for them - with Nap - to be content for another year. He has old man skills - and if his bat speed goes down another notch or so he is unplayable - so I'd hesitate to go more than a year or two at a time with him. On a team with terrific approaches, his might be the best. What was it Buster Olney showed - Boston leads the ML in Pitches seen - by such a wide margin that 2nd place (Minnesota) is closer to 18th place than 1st (or something)
  7. sk7326
    OK - Buchholz clearly needs to figure out the downward plane on his stuff ... command is shaky but clearly he is healthy and his stuff has not dipped in quality. So the rotation looks to be in good shape, and the "Back 4" in the bullpen is clear (Workman, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow). Figuring out the rest of the staff is another issue - including whether to go with an 11 man unit or a 10 man one. But team is peaking here - oh what a few healthy pitchers can do!
  8. sk7326
    Fun game - tried to steal it with the "other guys" bullpen. Good result either way.
  9. sk7326
    Here is the thing with the Red Sox moves at 1B. 1B is an easy position to fill. Adam LaRoche level production is not difficult to find - and you can cobble together a platoon for dirt cheap that effectively manages that. Look - the Red Sox have managed to basically get (if you use the $6M figure Fangraphs uses per win) $36 million of production for 1B/LF out of Mike Napoli and a couple of minimum salary-ish guys (Nava and Carp). If they think Abreu is a legit solution, they can set a price. Yes they'll pay a winner's curse premium (as you do for all free agents) - but if the bidding gets crazy, they have a very viable alternatiive. That is why QO'ing Napoli is a no-brainer here - he has been a very effective 1B here, and there is no reason to think they can't get another quality year of production from him. (in fact, going a year at a time with him would be ideal)
  10. sk7326
    I am not a Salty fan - and I'd probably not extend him a QO. BUT, there are almost no competent catchers available for employment - and he is one of them. Would I pay $14M for 1 year of a legit starting catcher? The Red Sox can afford the overpay for a year while a guy like Swihart or somebody becomes more viable. I wouldn't call them insane for doing it. I also think they can negotiate a 3 year deal.
  11. sk7326
    Napoli I think would be fine declining a QO. It's a calculated risk but he can get a reasonable 1-2 year deal for near that ... he has helped himself this year. After all you do have to pay his beard too!
  12. sk7326
    Of the three UFAs ... Napoli I think is a sure thing to get a QO. Drew is unlikely to me for the reason rj noted (he'll take it, and do you want that). Salty - on the surface no, but the sheer position scarcity at catcher makes it at least possible.
  13. sk7326
    The Seguin and Kessel comparisons are tempting - at the same time they were guaranteed jobs with the big club from when they were drafted (and let's be honest - both had solid runs here). Nobody has handed Bogaerts anything - he has consistently outperformed people a lot older than he is. It has not happened at the major league level because - well, the Red Sox are in a different position in a September when they have the AL's best record. He is 21, but he did not conquer 2 levels this year on luck. He has had forced competition this entire season - that is the entire genesis of his rise in the system. Some veteran complement makes sense - but there is nothing wrong with planning for him to win the job. He has done nothing to contradict that.
  14. sk7326
    If Drew gets $14M this year and a fair deal next season (say 3/30 or whatever) ... he has made it bigger than he would have in any other context. For him taking the QO is the no-brainer. I am pretty sure the Red Sox will not offer him one for that very reason - and I wouldn't even be surprised if there was an off the books agreement to not extend him one. In a sense (for this negotiation) the QO is off the table, Drew would never decline it due to its impact on his ability to find work and the Red Sox probably won't offer it because it would tie up nearly 10% of their payroll in a guy without a guaranteed starting job.
  15. sk7326
    I am with you on the 7th - though the starters can help there. 8th less so - because Uehara becomes a viable option then. Like all of the other contenders, we need our starters to push us past the softer part of the 'pen.
  16. sk7326
    Well ... Orioles did it with Machado more or less. A lot of it has to do with a FOs evaluation of the guy. What is Bogaerts' worst outcome for 2014 barring injury? That he becomes a drooling vegetable or that he curls up in the fetal position on the diamond when he hits an 0 for 17? If that's the case - then yeah you have to look into contingencies. If it's just a matter of enduring some .240/.300/.370 while he works at it - that is a different deal. I can live with the latter. The one thing you need for prospects to develop is reps ... either at AAA or the Show. If you choose the latter, key is the organization being strong and not letting the various Whiner Line contributors force their thinking. Veteran help is never a bad thing - certainly not doubting that. Though both Bogaerts and Bradley have shown legitimate reasons to be optimistic about their prospects for next season.
  17. sk7326
    I don't think that is quite as big a deal. Breslow and Tazawa are not perfect - but I think a lot of our perception is clouded by not seeing other team's guys. And if the situation is REALLY dire, I fully expect Uehara to get the call then (as well he should). The team has been masterful in protecting his reps and making sure he is not overworked, but the postseason is why you do it. And if it means occasionally Tazawa or Breslow has to pitch a clean 9th after Koji has saved their bacon in the 7th or 8th (granted the 7th is not going to happen unless it is elimination time) you solve that puzzle later.
  18. sk7326
    Erik Bedard is not coming through that door ... Kyle Weiland is not coming through that door ... Tim Wakefield's Corpse is not coming through that door ... Agree on everything - although "lack of fight" is probably an inevitable result from observing the steaming piles of garbage who were forced to start important games. This year - even the less effective starts have at least gotten innings and the bullpen has 4 or 5 reliable relievers. We know Koji will fall off - only because it is impossible for anybody to keep the pace he is setting - but the pitching staff is a strength and getting stronger.
  19. sk7326
    I think in this case, you have to look at the scouting outcomes and what managers have done in using him ... the splits are not conclusive, but he has so few PAs against lefties that I am not sure the numbers have a ton of utility. Basically Boston has gotten 6.2 fWAR from their LF/1B positions for what amounts to (more or less) Mike Napoli's salary. Has been a very effective deployment of resources.
  20. sk7326
    What we have seen I think is that Dempster is pretty effective one time through the order, where he can throw his splitter without thinking about it. In relief the FB could be more like 92 than 89 and he can feel free to throw the splitter as much as he wants. He could be very good for 6 outs at a time. Heck, I think that about Doubront too, but Doubront has more stretches where he just cannot find his mechanics at all.
  21. sk7326
    They did not keep Valentin as a hedge against Nomar though - they kept him because he was their 2nd best infielder at that time. Drew still has a year or two of prime earning as a SS ... he's probably a better defensive SS than Bogaerts is ... he'd want to play and be fully justified in doing so. Now if you want to move Boegarts to 3B and Middlebrooks to 1B, that is a more reasonable discussion - but one I'd still not be inclined to do. The thing is - the track records of dudes who do what Bogaerts has done, continually conquer levels of baseball where he is hanging against older guys, is VERY STRONG. These guys almost never fail - the argument is whether Bogaerts will be a mid .700 OPS sort or a mid .800 OPS sort. As we've seen this season - the Red Sox can survive with some "let's figure it out during the season" in a position or two - and if you are going to bet on a kid figuring things out on the fly he has a good track record there.
  22. sk7326
    This stretch has coincided with Middlebrooks beefing up a dreadful 3B position - and a series of strong, effective starts ... basically aside from a couple of Doubront stinkers - the rotation has continually kept the team and the pitching staff on schedule.
  23. sk7326
    Considering that Abreu is all speculation - I will refrain from discussing. But the rest of the market - Ben (and Theo before) recognizes the virtue of platoon advantage. I don't think Carp is an everyday starter - but there is no doubt he can be part of a very effective platoon. His effectiveness cannot be separated from how Farrell has used him.
  24. sk7326
    The Sox staff is getting HEALTHIER, not the way it was in 2011. 2013 Ryan Dempster would arguably be (next to Lester) the best pitcher Boston wheeled out during the last month of 2011.
  25. sk7326
    Myers can't be making a do-or-die stab like that with baserunners in scoring position ... way to go Nap
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