sk7326

Regular season in the bag - so why not? Cy Young (5 man ballot): Really only 2 legitimate choices - Scherzer or King Felix. Anibal Sanchez had a remarkable season, but the 182 IP does not stack up with the others even the WAR did. Scherzer had some tremendous BABIP which was not in line with his career norms (enough to say that this is him). Verlander, Darvish, Sale, Fister, Shields, Lester, Iwakuma all have reasonable claims for the bronze medal here. Koji Uehara by FWAR was one of the 20 best pitchers in the AL, which is pretty amazing. No modern-use closer can do enough to match the value an elite starter provides, but Uehara came about as close as you can -enough to get a spot on my ballot as a hat tip. 1. Scherzer 2. Hernandez 3. Darvish 4. Sale 5. Uehara Rookie of the Year (3 man ballot) Pretty thin crop this year. I have no strong conviction here, although Iglesias is a worthy name Manager of the Year (3 man) The choice ends up being on the "team we were most wrong about". Farrell is definitely on the podium, as is Francona. The latter is one of the best in the league and Farrell helped bring order to a wild situation. Bob Melvin has consistently been one of the best at maximizing talent and Joe Maddon doesn't need me to write an ode to him. Even Joe Girardi should (barf) get some credit for squeezing a wild card contender out of a team with so few good players available on a night to night basis. 1. Farrell 2. Francona 3. Melvin MVP Let's get this out of the way. If you are a Cabrera guy in the Trout-Cabrera debate, I am not going to change your mind. To me, "value" has to be about the player ... to me getting too wrapped up in team success means I am voting on the dude's 24 teammates, not him. I also have no qualms about adding pitchers in - it is about "players", not "position players". As such: 1. Mike Trout - easy choice again, what an amazing first two seasons 2. Miguel Cabrera - the best hitter alive. Better than he was last season 3. Chris Davis - always had the power, the development completed this season. Wow Koji Uehara is more valuable than I thought! 4. Josh Donaldson - 2nd in fWAR, but this is such an outlier for him, enough that the .333 BABIP has to get some scrutiny. 5. Evan Longoria - every year "imagine if he was healthy", this year didn't have to 6. Max Scherzer - Detroit's best pitcher this season 7. Felix Hernandez - toils in a bad situation, but what an amazing career he has going, and 2 years younger than Lester 8. Robinson Cano - going to break the bank as he should. Best middle infielder in the game. 9. Manny Machado - off the charts defense at 3rd, and a doubles machine. Not an on-base machine, but is not bad enough to detract from all the good. And so young. 10. Jacoby Ellsbury - the Sox MVP. Really can put Victorino or Pedroia here and not be wrong.

How did Cleveland win 92 games? Let me count the ways. 1. 17-2 against the White Sox 2. 2-1 against the Marlins 3. 6-1 against the Astros 4. 4-2 against the Angels 5. 13-6 against the Twins 6. 2-1 against the Mets 7. 3-1 against the Phillies 8. 5-2 against the Mariners 9. 4-2 against the Blue Jays That is a combined 56-18 against the garbage of their schedule ... they went 36-52 against the "decent or better" cohort. They did it by winning the games they should win at a higher rate than anybody else. Tito is a legitimately great manager, in all of the areas that get checked off. But this team feasted on a timber of team which they will not be able to hide from now. This doesn't mean they can't win the World Series - but this is the reality of their season.

If he just focused on hitting lefthanded where he does mash quite a bit ... he'd be 30% better immediately (those 30% of his plate appearances he throws away against lefties)

One of the 5 or 6 best players in the league - he will be rewarded. The only guy who you can justify a 200 million investment on.

I don't think it will be every night. But if we know we are traveling the next day, by all means ... and Uehara pounds the strike zone enough to be able to not run up dangerous pitch counts (for durability). I think Farrell wants to do the usual Tazawa/Breslow thing in the 8th, but now more than ever, you do not want to lose a close game because you did not use your best bullet.

BABIP won't last - but the walks and doubles were up ... which are more sustainable (improved approach). He is a solid starter in a position where replacement level is quite bad. If only he followed Victorino and gave up switch hitting.

As has often been the case in history ... EXPANSION!!!! 1997 Rays and DBacks entered the league, which means 30-40 additional pitchers from the muck of AAA ... when Maris hit his 61 it was also an expansion aided season.

Was a terrible free agent crop - and the Red Sox kicked the tires on Hamilton. Just happened to work out - especially when Shane Victorino's hamstring turned his season around. The industry is drowning in cash - lot of money chasing guys, it is hard to say what "overpaid" is. And for the Red Sox, the value of a win is more than for other teams.

Cleveland is a contender of course - because anybody who qualifies can win it. But they basically rolled up 92 wins against the sisters of the poor (16-2 against the White Sox, 53 wins against sub .500 teams). This is not a dig at all - beating the teams you should beat matters. But CLEARLY they are the team Boston wants to draw. The playoffs are a true coin flip - the best team doesn't win it that often. Missing bats really helps - as well as putting great at-bats together. The Red Sox do both well - the things they are weaker at (pre-7th inning relief) are things most of these teams are bad at. We're the best team in the league - but unlike say, the NBA, it means precisely zero now.

I am not sure how much the postseason will impact things on Buchholz. There is the body of work - and yes, the durability is a concern if a fat extension is in his future. But this season he has shown at least evidence that the #1 stuff we saw in the past could be for real. I'd be hesitant to offer him years but there is time for that hestitation to be allayed.

http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html for one scouting report ... Just comparing Nippon stats, Darvish rates out a bit better ... the strikeout rate was (and has translated) absolutely insane. Tanaka is no slouch - and from what I've read could be a true #2 sort, which is not at all bad. The posting fee rumors not in the ballpark of Darvish's from what I can tell.

The right example for what you are saying (and Middlebrooks tracks VERY nicely here) is Josh Reddick. He could not ever hold a job in Boston (despite many chances) because his plate discipline and on base skills were dreadful. Since he has gone to Oakland, he is STILL a poor on base guy. However, his .305 OBP last year was enough to be able to get to his serious power, and combined with his defense made a good outfielder. The key is whether Middlebrooks can be good enough with the on-base to be sufficient for his other virtues (power, athleticism) to shine through. I mean we deal with this bargain all the time: Can Papi hit well enough to compensate for him having zero other value (obviously yes), can Iglesias hit well enough to be able to play his glove (probably) - and the Boegarts projection is due largely on whether he can manage to play a B-/C+ level of shortstop or not. Hell the Yankees have settled for a B-/C+ level of shortstop defense since the "other stuff" is HoF level.

Ehhhh ... the Red Sox won this year because they basically had four #2-#3 starters (Dempster excepted though if he is your 5, that's good). The Sox (and every other team) could use a King Felix sort of legit #1 But there are maybe 10 of those, so the odds of actually having one is pretty darn low. (Scherzer, Darvish, Price, Wainwright, Felix, Verlander - big picture, Strasburg ... you start running out of names pretty quickly)

Higher ceiling than Reddick if he could ever get healthy - but sadly, just never in the cards.

Clogging the bases is just fine thank you - if the guy behind you unclogs them, that's an extra run. Waiting for the 3-run homer is a proven, much more durable way to score ... "clogging the bases" sounds a lot like Dusty Baker-ish nonsense. The Red Sox have been opportunistic stealing bases - but they largely lead the league in steals due to Ellsbury. The rest of the team clogs the bases - and they score a TON.

I did - the Red Sox acquired him in a salary dump ... and did not bring him back. If you want a pinch runner, get yourself a Billy Hamilton. But the 1980s Cardinals ain't comin back ... the actual relationship between steals and runs is pretty low. Steals are nice - but getting to first base is far more important.

Just a ballpark number as he gets better at stuff - I don't expect him to be a "green light, anytime" guy by any stretch. But opportunistic, has good enough speed - high baseball IQ. It will get better. Doesn't really affect my view that much - steals are awesome to have but not at all essential to good offense.

Strikeouts (from a hitters view, pitchers entirely different) aren't really that much worse than other outs, especially if he is getting on base at a decent clip (you are probably better off just using straight percentage of PAs). And if he's not really compromising his extra base hits, then the ways you get to 1st base are fairly unimportant. Indeed, Rickey Henderson - and no, I'm not saying Bradley is going to be one of the top dozen or so players ever - was not a contact maven by any stretch.

The walks lean in favor of Reynolds - but he also is an absolute disaster in the field. Middlebrooks was good last season, though earlier this year it has not been good (his slump early clearly bled into his whole game). Middlebrooks has the athletic ability (and some past performance) to be a much more valuable asset in the field than Reynolds.

Certainly possible if not probable ...

For me, I see Bradley's peak as good to very good glove, .350 OBP, 20+ steals, double digit homeruns ... while not Trout/McCutchen/Kemp ... at least Michael Bourn which ain't too shabby

The talent evaluation on DiceK was sound - the stuff is still terrific. But his own approach was horrid and never got fixed.

Will Bradley approximate Ellsbury 2013 in 2014? No. Will he be good enough that the Red Sox need not have to look at someone like Marlon Byrd or other marginally above replacement level fodder? Given the defense and approach - like the chances. What you look for is constant improvement - not going to get a finished product certainly.

It's not a sliding scale thing ... it is more that there is a threshold level of OBP where you are not hurting your team. The league average is .320 or so for instance - so it is safe to say .310-.320 is something which can play if you bring other stuff to the table, like legitimate power. This is basically the difference between 2012 Josh Reddick and the Red Sox incarnation of Reddick. He did not become an on-base machine, because that's just not going to happen for him. His on-base got good enough to not be hurting his team, and to let the stuff he did inconsistently (hit the ball very far) and consistently (manage his position) happen.

Crawford was a great athlete coming off of a fringe MVP level season - he was the top free agent position player on the market (or near the top I don't have the list in front of me). The odds he would forget how to play baseball entering his age 30 season more or less completely were extremely low. Really, the big shock was that he fell off a cliff as a defensive player ... for which there was no reasonable explanation.