sk7326

It's a good piece and does cite some reputable blogs ... ERA stats for Tanaka are obviously excellent. At the same time, the strikeout numbers tilt very much in Darvish's favor (in that comparison) - and strikeout rate is a good place to go as a first approximation of "stuff". Tanaka's K's are more reminiscent of DiceK (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=daisuke-matsuzaka). The real issue with his pro translation is approach - we know the Japanese approach for pitchers has involved a lot of deception and often pitching away from contact. Darvish is a notable exception, with his height and his very much American-style "let em try to hit it" view. Does Tanaka "come right at" hitters? These are not prospects but veterans with solid track records - as the Daisuke experience showed, changing their fundamental approach, the thing which got them so much notoriety, is a very difficult ask.

Picking the WS is a coinflip (as is most playoff matchups). That said, the AL has a tiny advantage with the application of the DH rule ... the AL team gains 2 edges - a better first hitter off the bench in the NL park and a better DH in the AL park.

Rays over Guardians - the Guardians 36-52 record against non-awful teams sticks out like a sore thumb. Francona has been magnificent but the roster doesn't stack up. Tigers over A's - no reason to think it will be different this year. Tigers knockout starting pitching is the difference. Sox over Rays - seen them a lot, lot of confidence. Tampa has the edge at top of rotation, Sox have edges in middle of rotation, bullpen, lineup Pirates over Reds - Liriano has been amazing Cards over Pirates - good series, lots of young pitching at work Braves over Dodgers - not a lot of runs to be had in this series ALCS: Tigers over Sox - Tigers starters just enough to edge out Boston NLCS: Cards over Braves - just stronger all around World Series: Tigers over Cards - more balance, better manager

A Braves player got him riled up earlier in the game - but he acted emotionally. What is funny is wanting players with personality and then balking when a player actually expresses it. From a media criticism perspective, there is definitely a racial component to it (if the racial hats were reversed the narrative would be much different). Maybe he should have dialed it back a touch - but then so should have McCann instead of showboating in front of the cameras (and say sending a note after the game). Fernandez, and what he showed this year is very much one of the best things about the game now. BTW: Puig is a fun rookie of the year narrative but it really has to go to Fernandez.

Orgs have gotten smarter about pitching for sure - in terms of prioritizing development over free agency. Also, I think that when a team sees a pitcher who is not slated to be a #3 or better sort of starter, the first option before moving him to #4 starters-ville is to see if he can be a dynamite reliever - like a guy with a dynamite first pitch but no big league level 3rd pitch, a guy with an insane platoon split, or a guy whose delivery screams "catastrophic injury ahead, just see what we can get out of him in the meantime". The baseball world came to terms with PEDs in the days of yore where our old heroes were popping amphetamines like they were tic-tacs. You look at the NFL - which was allegedly ahead of everybody, and guys are still doing it all the time. Bill Romanowski was a human science experiment for chrissakes. It's like any sort of "crimefighting" apparatus - rules will change, people will try to work around them. There is way too much at stake not to.

Epstein has been acquiring assets - just like Luhnow has in Houston. Both of their big league clubs suck out loud - but it's very much with a bigger picture in mind.

Not entirely, but a start ... also look at the ballpark construction trend during that time ... and note that 22 of the 30 opened new stadiums since 1991. Teams in the early part of the trend were shifting from multipurpose monstrosities to Camden Yards sort of bandboxes. To wit, the Orioles going from Memorial Stadium to Camden Yards, the Reds going from Riverfront to Great American, the Pirates going from Three Rivers to PNC, the Astros going from the Astrodome to Minute Maid Park. Only really Seattle went the other way (Kingdome to Safeco) and San Francisco stayed about the same. And let's not even discuss Coors Field. Since the middle of the last decade the new stadiums with the notable exception of Yankee Stadium have involved teams going the other way, (Qualcomm to Petco, Busch Stadium, Metrodome to Target Field, Shea to Citi Field) to much more pitching oriented layouts. That impact cannot be ignored. I am not discounting that PEDs had some impact - but given a sport where such specialized skills are involved, I have no way of guessing exactly how much of an impact it DID have (not what the players or media THINK happened). And there are other external factors.

Fernandez seemed to expressing genuine shock at how he crushed that ... hard to act like you've been there when you almost certainly haven't. Taking off your mask at a kid acting like a kid is much more playing to the cameras than expressing joy at a "maybe not once in a lifetime but pretty close" act.

chemistry is a trailing indicator, not a leading one. McCann is tough, but body has been through a lot. And if by "tough" that includes the Jose Fernandez thing a couple weeks ago - that is weak sauce.

Regular season in the bag - so why not? Cy Young (5 man ballot): Really only 2 legitimate choices - Scherzer or King Felix. Anibal Sanchez had a remarkable season, but the 182 IP does not stack up with the others even the WAR did. Scherzer had some tremendous BABIP which was not in line with his career norms (enough to say that this is him). Verlander, Darvish, Sale, Fister, Shields, Lester, Iwakuma all have reasonable claims for the bronze medal here. Koji Uehara by FWAR was one of the 20 best pitchers in the AL, which is pretty amazing. No modern-use closer can do enough to match the value an elite starter provides, but Uehara came about as close as you can -enough to get a spot on my ballot as a hat tip. 1. Scherzer 2. Hernandez 3. Darvish 4. Sale 5. Uehara Rookie of the Year (3 man ballot) Pretty thin crop this year. I have no strong conviction here, although Iglesias is a worthy name Manager of the Year (3 man) The choice ends up being on the "team we were most wrong about". Farrell is definitely on the podium, as is Francona. The latter is one of the best in the league and Farrell helped bring order to a wild situation. Bob Melvin has consistently been one of the best at maximizing talent and Joe Maddon doesn't need me to write an ode to him. Even Joe Girardi should (barf) get some credit for squeezing a wild card contender out of a team with so few good players available on a night to night basis. 1. Farrell 2. Francona 3. Melvin MVP Let's get this out of the way. If you are a Cabrera guy in the Trout-Cabrera debate, I am not going to change your mind. To me, "value" has to be about the player ... to me getting too wrapped up in team success means I am voting on the dude's 24 teammates, not him. I also have no qualms about adding pitchers in - it is about "players", not "position players". As such: 1. Mike Trout - easy choice again, what an amazing first two seasons 2. Miguel Cabrera - the best hitter alive. Better than he was last season 3. Chris Davis - always had the power, the development completed this season. Wow Koji Uehara is more valuable than I thought! 4. Josh Donaldson - 2nd in fWAR, but this is such an outlier for him, enough that the .333 BABIP has to get some scrutiny. 5. Evan Longoria - every year "imagine if he was healthy", this year didn't have to 6. Max Scherzer - Detroit's best pitcher this season 7. Felix Hernandez - toils in a bad situation, but what an amazing career he has going, and 2 years younger than Lester 8. Robinson Cano - going to break the bank as he should. Best middle infielder in the game. 9. Manny Machado - off the charts defense at 3rd, and a doubles machine. Not an on-base machine, but is not bad enough to detract from all the good. And so young. 10. Jacoby Ellsbury - the Sox MVP. Really can put Victorino or Pedroia here and not be wrong.

How did Cleveland win 92 games? Let me count the ways. 1. 17-2 against the White Sox 2. 2-1 against the Marlins 3. 6-1 against the Astros 4. 4-2 against the Angels 5. 13-6 against the Twins 6. 2-1 against the Mets 7. 3-1 against the Phillies 8. 5-2 against the Mariners 9. 4-2 against the Blue Jays That is a combined 56-18 against the garbage of their schedule ... they went 36-52 against the "decent or better" cohort. They did it by winning the games they should win at a higher rate than anybody else. Tito is a legitimately great manager, in all of the areas that get checked off. But this team feasted on a timber of team which they will not be able to hide from now. This doesn't mean they can't win the World Series - but this is the reality of their season.

If he just focused on hitting lefthanded where he does mash quite a bit ... he'd be 30% better immediately (those 30% of his plate appearances he throws away against lefties)

One of the 5 or 6 best players in the league - he will be rewarded. The only guy who you can justify a 200 million investment on.

I don't think it will be every night. But if we know we are traveling the next day, by all means ... and Uehara pounds the strike zone enough to be able to not run up dangerous pitch counts (for durability). I think Farrell wants to do the usual Tazawa/Breslow thing in the 8th, but now more than ever, you do not want to lose a close game because you did not use your best bullet.

BABIP won't last - but the walks and doubles were up ... which are more sustainable (improved approach). He is a solid starter in a position where replacement level is quite bad. If only he followed Victorino and gave up switch hitting.

As has often been the case in history ... EXPANSION!!!! 1997 Rays and DBacks entered the league, which means 30-40 additional pitchers from the muck of AAA ... when Maris hit his 61 it was also an expansion aided season.

Was a terrible free agent crop - and the Red Sox kicked the tires on Hamilton. Just happened to work out - especially when Shane Victorino's hamstring turned his season around. The industry is drowning in cash - lot of money chasing guys, it is hard to say what "overpaid" is. And for the Red Sox, the value of a win is more than for other teams.

Cleveland is a contender of course - because anybody who qualifies can win it. But they basically rolled up 92 wins against the sisters of the poor (16-2 against the White Sox, 53 wins against sub .500 teams). This is not a dig at all - beating the teams you should beat matters. But CLEARLY they are the team Boston wants to draw. The playoffs are a true coin flip - the best team doesn't win it that often. Missing bats really helps - as well as putting great at-bats together. The Red Sox do both well - the things they are weaker at (pre-7th inning relief) are things most of these teams are bad at. We're the best team in the league - but unlike say, the NBA, it means precisely zero now.

I am not sure how much the postseason will impact things on Buchholz. There is the body of work - and yes, the durability is a concern if a fat extension is in his future. But this season he has shown at least evidence that the #1 stuff we saw in the past could be for real. I'd be hesitant to offer him years but there is time for that hestitation to be allayed.

http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html for one scouting report ... Just comparing Nippon stats, Darvish rates out a bit better ... the strikeout rate was (and has translated) absolutely insane. Tanaka is no slouch - and from what I've read could be a true #2 sort, which is not at all bad. The posting fee rumors not in the ballpark of Darvish's from what I can tell.

The right example for what you are saying (and Middlebrooks tracks VERY nicely here) is Josh Reddick. He could not ever hold a job in Boston (despite many chances) because his plate discipline and on base skills were dreadful. Since he has gone to Oakland, he is STILL a poor on base guy. However, his .305 OBP last year was enough to be able to get to his serious power, and combined with his defense made a good outfielder. The key is whether Middlebrooks can be good enough with the on-base to be sufficient for his other virtues (power, athleticism) to shine through. I mean we deal with this bargain all the time: Can Papi hit well enough to compensate for him having zero other value (obviously yes), can Iglesias hit well enough to be able to play his glove (probably) - and the Boegarts projection is due largely on whether he can manage to play a B-/C+ level of shortstop or not. Hell the Yankees have settled for a B-/C+ level of shortstop defense since the "other stuff" is HoF level.

Ehhhh ... the Red Sox won this year because they basically had four #2-#3 starters (Dempster excepted though if he is your 5, that's good). The Sox (and every other team) could use a King Felix sort of legit #1 But there are maybe 10 of those, so the odds of actually having one is pretty darn low. (Scherzer, Darvish, Price, Wainwright, Felix, Verlander - big picture, Strasburg ... you start running out of names pretty quickly)

Higher ceiling than Reddick if he could ever get healthy - but sadly, just never in the cards.

Clogging the bases is just fine thank you - if the guy behind you unclogs them, that's an extra run. Waiting for the 3-run homer is a proven, much more durable way to score ... "clogging the bases" sounds a lot like Dusty Baker-ish nonsense. The Red Sox have been opportunistic stealing bases - but they largely lead the league in steals due to Ellsbury. The rest of the team clogs the bases - and they score a TON.

I did - the Red Sox acquired him in a salary dump ... and did not bring him back. If you want a pinch runner, get yourself a Billy Hamilton. But the 1980s Cardinals ain't comin back ... the actual relationship between steals and runs is pretty low. Steals are nice - but getting to first base is far more important.