sk7326

I am not a Salty fan - and I'd probably not extend him a QO. BUT, there are almost no competent catchers available for employment - and he is one of them. Would I pay $14M for 1 year of a legit starting catcher? The Red Sox can afford the overpay for a year while a guy like Swihart or somebody becomes more viable. I wouldn't call them insane for doing it. I also think they can negotiate a 3 year deal.

Napoli I think would be fine declining a QO. It's a calculated risk but he can get a reasonable 1-2 year deal for near that ... he has helped himself this year. After all you do have to pay his beard too!

Of the three UFAs ... Napoli I think is a sure thing to get a QO. Drew is unlikely to me for the reason rj noted (he'll take it, and do you want that). Salty - on the surface no, but the sheer position scarcity at catcher makes it at least possible.

The Seguin and Kessel comparisons are tempting - at the same time they were guaranteed jobs with the big club from when they were drafted (and let's be honest - both had solid runs here). Nobody has handed Bogaerts anything - he has consistently outperformed people a lot older than he is. It has not happened at the major league level because - well, the Red Sox are in a different position in a September when they have the AL's best record. He is 21, but he did not conquer 2 levels this year on luck. He has had forced competition this entire season - that is the entire genesis of his rise in the system. Some veteran complement makes sense - but there is nothing wrong with planning for him to win the job. He has done nothing to contradict that.

If Drew gets $14M this year and a fair deal next season (say 3/30 or whatever) ... he has made it bigger than he would have in any other context. For him taking the QO is the no-brainer. I am pretty sure the Red Sox will not offer him one for that very reason - and I wouldn't even be surprised if there was an off the books agreement to not extend him one. In a sense (for this negotiation) the QO is off the table, Drew would never decline it due to its impact on his ability to find work and the Red Sox probably won't offer it because it would tie up nearly 10% of their payroll in a guy without a guaranteed starting job.

I am with you on the 7th - though the starters can help there. 8th less so - because Uehara becomes a viable option then. Like all of the other contenders, we need our starters to push us past the softer part of the 'pen.

Well ... Orioles did it with Machado more or less. A lot of it has to do with a FOs evaluation of the guy. What is Bogaerts' worst outcome for 2014 barring injury? That he becomes a drooling vegetable or that he curls up in the fetal position on the diamond when he hits an 0 for 17? If that's the case - then yeah you have to look into contingencies. If it's just a matter of enduring some .240/.300/.370 while he works at it - that is a different deal. I can live with the latter. The one thing you need for prospects to develop is reps ... either at AAA or the Show. If you choose the latter, key is the organization being strong and not letting the various Whiner Line contributors force their thinking. Veteran help is never a bad thing - certainly not doubting that. Though both Bogaerts and Bradley have shown legitimate reasons to be optimistic about their prospects for next season.

I don't think that is quite as big a deal. Breslow and Tazawa are not perfect - but I think a lot of our perception is clouded by not seeing other team's guys. And if the situation is REALLY dire, I fully expect Uehara to get the call then (as well he should). The team has been masterful in protecting his reps and making sure he is not overworked, but the postseason is why you do it. And if it means occasionally Tazawa or Breslow has to pitch a clean 9th after Koji has saved their bacon in the 7th or 8th (granted the 7th is not going to happen unless it is elimination time) you solve that puzzle later.

Erik Bedard is not coming through that door ... Kyle Weiland is not coming through that door ... Tim Wakefield's Corpse is not coming through that door ... Agree on everything - although "lack of fight" is probably an inevitable result from observing the steaming piles of garbage who were forced to start important games. This year - even the less effective starts have at least gotten innings and the bullpen has 4 or 5 reliable relievers. We know Koji will fall off - only because it is impossible for anybody to keep the pace he is setting - but the pitching staff is a strength and getting stronger.

I think in this case, you have to look at the scouting outcomes and what managers have done in using him ... the splits are not conclusive, but he has so few PAs against lefties that I am not sure the numbers have a ton of utility. Basically Boston has gotten 6.2 fWAR from their LF/1B positions for what amounts to (more or less) Mike Napoli's salary. Has been a very effective deployment of resources.

What we have seen I think is that Dempster is pretty effective one time through the order, where he can throw his splitter without thinking about it. In relief the FB could be more like 92 than 89 and he can feel free to throw the splitter as much as he wants. He could be very good for 6 outs at a time. Heck, I think that about Doubront too, but Doubront has more stretches where he just cannot find his mechanics at all.

They did not keep Valentin as a hedge against Nomar though - they kept him because he was their 2nd best infielder at that time. Drew still has a year or two of prime earning as a SS ... he's probably a better defensive SS than Bogaerts is ... he'd want to play and be fully justified in doing so. Now if you want to move Boegarts to 3B and Middlebrooks to 1B, that is a more reasonable discussion - but one I'd still not be inclined to do. The thing is - the track records of dudes who do what Bogaerts has done, continually conquer levels of baseball where he is hanging against older guys, is VERY STRONG. These guys almost never fail - the argument is whether Bogaerts will be a mid .700 OPS sort or a mid .800 OPS sort. As we've seen this season - the Red Sox can survive with some "let's figure it out during the season" in a position or two - and if you are going to bet on a kid figuring things out on the fly he has a good track record there.

This stretch has coincided with Middlebrooks beefing up a dreadful 3B position - and a series of strong, effective starts ... basically aside from a couple of Doubront stinkers - the rotation has continually kept the team and the pitching staff on schedule.

Considering that Abreu is all speculation - I will refrain from discussing. But the rest of the market - Ben (and Theo before) recognizes the virtue of platoon advantage. I don't think Carp is an everyday starter - but there is no doubt he can be part of a very effective platoon. His effectiveness cannot be separated from how Farrell has used him.

The Sox staff is getting HEALTHIER, not the way it was in 2011. 2013 Ryan Dempster would arguably be (next to Lester) the best pitcher Boston wheeled out during the last month of 2011.

Myers can't be making a do-or-die stab like that with baserunners in scoring position ... way to go Nap

Gomes' beard looks very sloppy. Napoli and Ross, really just crazy Santa-thick at this point. Birds have to be living in them.

Nomar *cough cough* ... so you get a veteran guy as a hedge. Good news is the team is pretty good - so it's not like he has to be their best player. He just has to be at least as good as Drew - which is not unreasonable.

I was starving for an answer for the additional pitcher after De La Rosa ... lot of choices, none amazing. In the playoffs, a team has to choose 25 players for a round, and if a guy is replaced during the round - he cannot come back for 2 rounds. So an ALDS injury = stay on roster or not eligible to return until WS. But the Red Sox have 32 playoff eligible players. Now to shift them from round to round - I believe- normal rules for options and such (like moving guys in the regular season) are still in place.

I'd have no problem giving Napoli a QO though ... his production is completely justifiable for the price and a 1-year hitch. Downside is that there might be a superior option on the open market - but no THAT many.

Well what does "get it done" mean? If we are talking about being their best player next season - yeah, that ain't happening. If you are talking about approximating Stephen Drew's production - that is pretty possible, although it might take a while. I agree there is the "good prospect who was effective in a small sample" pitfall. At the same time there is the "guy who has been good at levels he was very young for" thing - which almost never misses. If you are going to bet on a kid to pick stuff up quickly, it's a 20 going on 21 year old who already has a strong track record of figuring out how to play with grownups. Bogaerts is a long bet - but his track record is MUCH more favorable than Iglesias' was.

I am not sure if the new CBA allows sign and trades - I need to read more about that. That is the rub. That said, is $14M a risk worth taking for a sandwich pick? Boras is the game's best agent - he knows that the QO is Drew's best chance to maximize his income in the long term. $14M (and I just use that since last year's QO number was $13.3 so assume the average went up) for a part timer is a lot of money. I think Bogaerts has shown enough in his tour here that they should let him grow into the gig and give him regular ABs. (if anything that has been the disappointing thing about the decision to promote him - although I think Middlebrooks ended up screwing up everyone's plans on that front)

Considering the huge win at Tampa last night - the Red Sox took a large step towards clinching a postseason berth. As such - I feel better about looking towards the playoffs. The final playoff roster: Pitchers (13): Breslow, Britton, Dempster, Doubront, Lackey, Lester, Morales, Peavy, Tazawa, Thornton, Uehara, Workman, Buchholz Catchers (2): Ross, Saltalamacchia Infielders (6): Boegaerts, Drew, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Pedroia, Snyder Outfielders (5): Carp, Ellsbury, Gomes, Nava, Victorino DH (1): Ortiz Free Slots (5): Bailey, Hanrahan, Miller, Wilson, Kalish ========================================================================================= Some questions I'd be curious to discuss 1. Who do you think makes sense for the free slots? These are guys who were in the organization as of August 31 - they were not postseason eligible but because of the season ending injuries noted - they can be added on. This doesn't mean they make the 25 man roster for a given series - but they are among the pool of people that can be chosen. My guess: Lavarnway, Berry, Bradley, De La Rosa, Wright 2. How many pitchers do we carry for a series? 12 or 11. If 11, seems Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, Lackey, Breslow, Tazawa, Workman, Uehara are locks. What about the other positions?

Win was huge - basically clinches our position over Tampa. Even if we lose the next 2, Tampa is still 6.5 games back with 14 games to go. That two game swing earned last night should be enough (barring the usual) to win the division though the math won't shake down for a while.

Well, as far as who starts Game 1. For Detroit, Verlander-Scherzer is a legitimate argument ... Scherzer is the clear choice based on 2013 output, but Verlander has a much stronger track record for managing the workload. I'd go with Verlander myself though it's a 50-50 choice. For Boston it's much the same question - Lester's steady durability vs Buchholz actually being a lot better but with less certainty about pitching twice in an ALDS setting. It's a 50-50 call there too, but those are the only choices to me.