sk7326

The tricky thing with keeping all of those guys is that if anything Choo could use a right handed partner - and the current guys don't provide that (Victorino aside and he is not platooning with anybody). Nava switchhits but is FAR less useful as a righty - and Carp, Bradley etc etc are lefty too. I'd rather not move Victorino to CF full time, clearly the corner position has really helped him in all aspects ... he is still a good defensive CF, but he will be less good most likely heading into his mid 30s - and keeping him in a corner still allows him to provide a ton of value on that side of the field. I say be ready for Bradley in CF and deal with Choo from a position of strength.

Boston's bullpen is nothing special - 10th in ERA this season. Detroits also not special - 12th. Now, what is interesting is that for the most part, bullpen ERA did not correlate much with who actually was successful. Tampa was 7th, Toronto was 4th. In 2012, this was more in line with Tampa, Oakland, Baltimore, leading the pack. Though once again Detroit 10th, Yanks 7th, Rangers 6th. Red Sox 4th in 2011 and so on. On the other hand: 2013: The top 5 teams in Starters ERA: Detroit, Oakland, Tampa, Boston, Kansas City (with Cleveland, Texas taking next 2 spots) 2012: Tampa, Detroit, Oakland, Seattle, Anaheim (Yankees #6, Rangers #8) 2011: Tampa, Anaheim, Texas, Oakland, Yankees, Mariners, Tigers Basically starter's ERA has been a much more durable predictor of playoff timber than bullpen ERA. I guess what I am saying is - we quibble about the Red Sox middle relief, but I'd temper it by noting: 1. Middle relief is the weak spot of EVERY bullpen, even the good ones 2. If we are getting into any bullpen early our chances to win go up The Red Sox back of the bullpen is very strong, stronger than Detroit's ... if we are counting on 5th and 6th inning guys to win a postseason series, we have much bigger problems.

Offenses were nearly identical in production, though the Tigers are a little more top heavy. The Red Sox ability to start rallies from any spot in the order - as well as them just being healthier, gives them an edge. But I am expecting this to be a grind.

One of the big edges Boston had with the way the series broke down is only having to face Verlander in Games 3 and 7. Yeah it sucks to get him for a Game 7, but if this series gets to 7 - we are depending on a coin flip anyway. The Tigers have the edge in the rotation, with a LOT of bat-missers. But clearly ours is plenty good enough and is CAPABLE of outpitching anybody in a short series - we just saw that.

Well this year was only Choo's 2nd 5-win caliber season, which puts him in line with Ellsbury. But yes, the games played matter and Choo has made more of them. The dangers with Choo are an alarming split against lefties, and just the general risk of giving any 31 year old corner guy a contract into his mid-30s. Free agent signings are - as a general rule - losing propositions so it's something you have to live with. I do think his ghastly defensive numbers this year are really a function more of playing out of position than anything - move him to LF and things will be fine, even if the metrics might not show it. (Fenway's left field has confounded UZR through the history of the tool) His on-base skills might not be .423 for the next 2-3 years, but solid high .300s are completely reasonable. I do think the probability of him maintaining his value is greater than Ellsbury over the next 4 years.

It is so silly - baseball's economic system is probably the most stable outside of the NFL (where so much of the revenue is centralized). Is it sad that Tampa has to trade guys? Sure - but they at least do not have to maintain a minimum payroll (and thus employ useless veterans) and tie Friedman's hands behind his back. That was the beauty of Moneyball for baseball fans - it took the excuses for smaller market teams and created some expectations.

Here is the thing using the Victorino comparison. Victorino was a really shaky deal at the signing - a lot of projection for a guy who had a poor season with increasingly intolerable splits. The Red Sox blew the market away with that signing. 32 years old, coming off of a bad season with increasing evidence he could not hit righties ... that did not make for an $13M player. The Red Sox did a good job projecting the defensive impact - more than what a lot of folks expected - and when Victorino scrapped switch hitting, his ghastly platoon split went with it. He doesn't even have to be that good the next 2 seasons for the contract to be a major win for the Red Sox. Ellsbury has a lot more going for him entering the market - he was arguable the Red Sox best player his last 2 healthy seasons. Of course there is the rub - and because he is 30 and not 27/28 like BJ Upton was entering the market last year, it is harder to close your eyes and dream of any yet-to-be-realized upside. (never mind that Upton fell on his face, there is at least more prime years to project at his age) I'd like him back - but it is hard to commit the years that undoubtedly somebody will offer him.

Actual age, assessment of defense matter. Using those numbers though it'd be non-Ellsbury.

Sox-Cards would be a good series. So would the Dodgers - a grand stage for Kershaw, Puig is nothing but good for baseball.

The pitchers that can get the Sox are the guys who can pound the strike zone - and get a lot of swing and miss in the strike zone. Fortunately, that is a very short list of guys.

This. Basically there are times when you need one and only one run ... 9th inning, tie/down one ... other obvious spots. In the NL there is the pitcher coming up (why the notion the NL has more strategy is a little foolish - the manager has fewer options when one of their players is totally useless offensively). But - and this Red Sox team (as the 2003-2009 vintages do also) show - you cannot give outs away. Your 27 outs is your team's time limit essentially - gotta make it count. The Sox with this collective approach, like the aforementioned teams or the Yankee title winners since 1998, it's like a fighter who just keeps leaning on you. Even if the knockout doesn't appear early, the body blows add up - it is just very very hard to keep the focus through the ordeal they put you through.

ARod should appeal - it's his right, no reason not to hear it. Baseball wants him badly, and it is totally possible for them to have screwed up the investigation. I expect that if Price is dealt, Rays want real value - not a ton of teams that can give it to them while being able to extend Price - the Sox interestingly are one of those teams, and Blue Jays are another, Orioles yet another. The Dodgers can pay him but I don't know if they can pay the Rays.

In 2008 and 2009 they were exposed as a Top 3 offensive team that averaged 95 wins a year?? Oh-kayyyy ... the Red Sox have been aggressive because they have the personnel to be opportunistic. This ain't the 1985 Cardinals or anything. The Red Sox stole 123 bases in 2013 ... they stole 120 in 2008 and 126 in 2009. What is different is the unsustainably crazy percentage (only caught 10 times all season). They have picked their spots beautifully. The station to station legend of 2007 is also not very true - 96 stolen bases, 7th in the AL. Hell, the go-go Red Sox of 2013 were 3rd in the AL in steals. 4th? The station to station Guardians. Moving runners, hit and run ... they sound interesting but giving away outs is generally bad. They didn't score a run because they missed in a couple of key spots and Tampa pitched well - none of this is new fangled, this is stuff Earl Weaver figured out 40 years ago. Get baserunners, wait for the crooked number - that is higher percentage than over-bunting and wasting time on so-called productive outs. That it doesn't work all the time doesn't prove that it's not the right door to go through. Last night's rally was thrilling. But it is much more a triumph of the stuff that carried the 2004-2010 era than it looks - zero extra base hits yes, but great at bat after great at bat ... sixteen baserunners in 9 innings and being able to shake off some really awful luck. The lineup and approach just wears down teams that whose pitchers aren't dialed in the entire way. The team is a reflection on what a mistake it was to panic like they did in 2012 - this team has had a winning approach for the better part of a decade ... you just never know how October will shake out.

Body of work - no chance ... especially since you have to count the last month of a hobbled Miguel Cabrera. Now would I pick the Tigers over the Sox in a best of 7? It would be tempting with those Top 4 starters - but Tampa's aren't slouches and Boston figured out a way there.

The extra travel day has definitely changed how managers are handling Game 4. With the extra day it allows you to have EITHER your #1 or #2 lined up with short rest. Detroit was able to exploit it with Scherzer as was LA with Kershaw. The Rays did to a degree too with Moore although Maddon was not taking any chances with asking for much inningswise from him. In particular, teams with a quality #2 starter now have an extra bullet to throw at Game 4.

It's not really a contrast - both worked in the same management structure. These are not opposing schools at all - Farrell bench coach is a former PawSox manager. So is his first base coach. This season has been more of a throwback to the 2007 days than any kind of rebuke of them.

The science of statistics says it will all even out in the long run ... but to guess how it would is folly. The science tells us that a best of 7 (let alone 5) will tell us nothing about underlying quality ... especially in baseball where the starting pitching rotation means you are facing a different "team" every game.

Oh, I definitely would rather have the A's ... less bat-missing starting pitching. And yes, while their park robs us of power, it robs them too. And our outfield defense is solid enough to take advantage of all those fly balls that die in the outfield. That said, there are no "upsets" in baseball playoffs. Just happy to still be ticking. Boegarts came in handy in a tough spot - I don't think this changes the rotation but it might make it easier for Farrell to lift Drew in a matchup situation. Good composure in a situation where the temptation to press was high.

Well, we thought Tampa would not give gifts either. The series was defined by the Sox outdoing the Rays at the stuff Tampa is good at, pitching, defense. And then the offense was relentless - even last night when they weren't scoring they were making one hard inning after another.

LOL - to be fair, WMB DID have a terrific at-bat ... just sometimes the other guy is a little better. Rodney had a much easier go.

Oh to be 21 and have a legitimate big league approach at the plate ...

He does - on ESPN.

come on Taz

Oh I doubt Nava was running on his own ... the hit and run made sense there although Ross != contact hitter

Tazawa with a super quick hook ... I dunno, going right to Uehara feels better here, but need to watch for the steal either way