sk7326

Drew was 8th in the league in fWAR this year in the majors. And considering he had over 100 fewer PAs than Jean Segura, Jed Lowrie and JJ Hardy - you can argue he was better than that. He is a legitimately top shelf-ish SS. But his injury history (and whatever a GM wants to infer from playoff stats - not much if he is smart) probably will prevent him from getting much more than 3 years.

Bogaerts (barring injury) will not miss, guys who have competed at the level at ages like his rarely do ... the question is whether he will be a Jhonny Peralta (offensive SS who is nothing special but who is clearly a starter) or someone you can legitimately build a franchise around.

Glove has been better than that. I suspect the FO's mind has been made up on Drew even before the playoffs began.

That is possible - I think it might end up being based on current form ... Ortiz was scuffling in the Tigers series. Fortunately with the WS starting in Boston, we can figure out if he is locked in again. My curiosity will be about the rest of the roster ... to me, no reason to carry 11 pitchers in this series. With the games in the NL park, I'd drop Morales for Lavarnway - some extra pinch-hitting and another catcher.

Well Wainwright and Kelly, you have to make more of a "stuff" based decision. Neither guy screams "play a lefty" or whatever. Lynn is probably where Navy will get a turn (and maybe Carp also). Wacha has a large split but only a small number of innings, and he has been dominant in the postseason. Wainwright is fastball-slider-cutter mostly ... so Nava could work out there.

There isn't - just, as a general thing, not playing is not good for a guy's development. If he's playing twice a week - that is still not quite enough to really get the sort of leap you'd want. I do think there is a risk sending him back, of some senioritis on his part - hard to get motivated when you know you are not being demoted for merit reasons - but that depends on the guy. Either way, getting Bogaerts out there and living with the results is a better long term play - and a better chance of him achieving the parabolic improvement between April and August. As far as Drew goes - I am betting against the QO coming. I don't think it can be a condition of signing him, but I would not be surprised if there was understanding between the two parties that this was supposed to be a short term relationship. Everybody has gotten what they wanted from the deal.

The way neither have hit, it's hard to say ... but if you want some clues: Wainwright: lefties .631, righties .639 ... OPS against Wacha: lefties .493, righties .710 (but only 32 IP, so take with a giant block of salt) Lynn: lefties .765, righties .652 Kelly: lefties .690, righties .696 Miller: lefties .761, righties .588 Rotation all righties, but doesn't mean there aren't splits. Nava will probably start against Lynn and if they want to deploy Shelby Miller (they haven't so far). Gomes could find his way into this series too - as there are not huge splits across the other starters, and Busch (in particular) is a pitcher's park with a lot of ground to cover.

It's not that enormous a decision - probably will be Ortiz and/or Napoli ... and I imagine current form will dictate some of that. AL has an advantage in the World Series (a small one) ... since their first pinch hitter is a starting DH, while in the AL park the NL team is putting a designated pinch hitter as the DH. Just an imbalance which makes that position an AL edge.

Generally it is not smart to intuit "caring" from a player's countenance, you are right about that. After all, Kevin McHale could always joke with officials and other players the way Larry Bird never could - but it doesn't mean he did not bleed as much (1987 finals on a broken foot and all). I don't doubt Prince's professionalism. That said, I do think there is something about guys like Prince, or Barry Bonds, or JD Drew or Ken Griffey Jr - guys who really grew up around the game at a high level. They don't necessarily have the same relationship to baseball that fans have - for most of us we'd give anything to be good enough to play in that sphere (or at least dreamt it as kids), but for them it's the family business and being good at it is sort of preordained. The ballpark is a place they have always known - so it's hard to get that visbly excited about it, even if you put in all the work to be good at your job. Detroit fans from what I can tell have been giving the Sox their due. After all, the grand slams DID happen - and Leyland's decisions with the pitching staff were all reasonable. An area where Boston was better than Detroit (the pen) shined. And there was no guarantee that Detroit hangs a big inning up in the 6th. That said, clearly Fielder's mistake robbed Detroit of a golden chance to pounce on the biggest mistake of the game to that point, which was Farrell's movements with the 'pen. But I think it might be a little easier to live with since Detroit DID still have the lead, and still controlled their own fate.

One thing I can say fairly confidently. If Drew is the starting SS, there is zero chance Bogaerts is breaking camp on the roster. Better a guy like him get at-bats, period. Sox already sort of (completely justifiably) robbed him of reps by bringing him up in late August without a starting gig available ... he's not going to get the work he needs playing once a week with the big club.

Cards are a well rounded team. This is not the mismatch the 2004 World Series was. I'm picking the Cards, reverse jinx hello. But the Red Sox have won every way possible ... including with grand slams from hitters who did virtually nothing the other 5+ games.

3 saves, 2 of them legitimately man-sized ones. One win. He has been the best reliever in baseball this season. And his success (and frankly that of the entire ALCS/NLCS closer group) does prove that you just don't know where your closers are going to come from. We're lucky to have found him for this season.

Middlebrooks is already there with an 8 year age advantage (and honestly far less dedicated baseball training) ... look at Uribe's past seasons and Middlebrooks 2012 already beat it. You look at the issues Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse had in the market this past season - the QO millstone does matter for both sides ... there were precious few offered, and for some of the obvious non cracker jack guys, it caused them a lot of problems finding work. And Bourn is a better player than Drew and he had a serious lack of suitors. A good team will be very gunshy to give up its 1st rounder for Drew. A bad team which doesn't have to surrender a pick won't be - but if those are the only teams Drew will field offers from, he might as well take the QO (potentially). Bogaerts is ready for this. His reps have been limited, and I am not going make a small sample overreaction, but I watch the same at-bats you do. And yes, starting him in AAA is not a tragedy ... although his trajectory (and those of comparable cases) would indicate that it's not necessarily likely. But there is a lot of stuff already there which is big-league ready ... you just need the strong hands to let him do it. The team's evaluation has to be whether this is the sort of dude who can take the pushing, the challenging - judging by the evidence to date, that is a resounding yes.

Have to play 2-3 games in the NL park ... replace him with another position - I'd go Lavarnway, though McDonald is a fair choice also.

Stick with Buchholz ... OR just go to Breslow THEN ... you did it in Game 5. Going to one of your low leverage guys then (especially Morales - Workman I can defend a bit) made no sense. Fortunately Prince Fielder saved the day for us there. I'd drop Morales from the World Series roster and add Lavarnway ... doesn't hurt to have a 3rd catcher/PH with the NL rules. Morales is not really a matchup lefty anyway, and if you are going to go to a non-Tazawa/Breslow/Uehara, I'd prefer Dempster.

Tigers lost due to two swings of the bat by hitters who basically did diddly squat the rest of the series ... it was an epic series, just the darndest finish. Farrell seriously out-thought himself in the 6th inning with Buchholz, but fortunately Prince Fielder helped avert a potential disaster. I always say betting the AL in the World Series is generally a good option all things being equal. That said, Cards are probably the most complete club the Red Sox will face this run, and their young pitching has really dominated during the postseason. In the reverse jinx spirit, I will pick the Cards in 6.

Also - the matchups with Nava/Gomes can be more specific than strictly lefty-righty. If we are dealing with guys with excellent changeups like Scherzer - the lefty/righty thing might not be so obvious. After all, a righty-righty matchup can neutralize the righty changeup, at least a little bit. And the vs pitcher splits involve so few at-bats, that really a "scouting" based decision on who to put up there is totally reasonable. The Red Sox interestingly have three switch hitters getting prominent run. Victorino, Nava, Saltalamacchia. None of them should be switch hitting, period. And Victorino next season - even if his hammy is ok, really shouldn't go back to switch hitting at all.

Comparing Uribe to Middlebrooks is silly. Middlebrooks just turned 26 while Uribe is is 34. Uribe was a 5 win player this year, which was a screaming fluke driven by BABIP way out of line with his career. Middlebrooks was barely replacement level this year - although given where he was when he got sent down, that represents a nice comeback. I love on-base machines. We all should - it is the fundemental role of offense. But guys who AREN'T are not doomed to be useless. Middlebrooks (unlike Uribe) has safely another 2 years or so of legitimate development and growth we can look to. He is also a terrific athlete (as evidenced by his two-sport background, and shown by being chosen to pinch run for Bogaerts in an important spot in Game 5) - and excellent athletes with good work ethic are always good candidates to "get it". Raw power which gets into games (and not just left in the batting cage like Ryan Sweeney), and the ability to play a good 3B defensively (granted his slump earlier this year bled into that), and the ability to back up other positions (he has shown he can fake 2B) - there is quite a bit there to like. That is an above average starting 3B - he just needs the reps.

Drew's QO will kill a lot of his attractiveness on the market - it makes sense for he and his team to show they are willing to take the offer ... enough so the Red Sox will not offer it.

Boras will look to maximize Drew's income - Drew getting $14M in year 1 is better than anything he could dream of on the market. He could easily accept it and deal with next year when it shows up. That said, its in neither party's interest to do a QO. It's an expensive gamble for the Red Sox to make and Drew wants to go where he can start (Saint Louis would be an obvious choice for one). I think the Red Sox like Middlebrooks at 3B, but you worry about hurt feelings next season. Really Middlebrooks success will be essentially the same challenges as what Josh Reddick has faced. He doesn't have to be a .350 OBP guy, but it he can be a .320 OBP sort of guy that might be enough to let him get to the stuff he can do (the raw power and athleticism at 3B). Low OBP guys can still be immensely valuable - and Middlebrooks certainly has the tools to do so. You generally can do worse than betting on an athlete of his caliber to figure things out enough to be a quality starter.

Beltran has a 1.160 OPS in 194 career plate appearances. There is no doubt that he has been amazing in the postseason, but his career OPS is .854, so he has been a good ballplayer the whole time. And 194 PAs is barely 25% of a season. So that is a very small number to make any conclusions about him. A lot of these sorts of things (like RBI numbers) are largely a function of opportunity. Give good players chances to make magic, and they will.

It's not really a technicality. You are using situational stats as an indicator that you should play one player over another (possibly over a better one) and make player signing difference. That means that the player has something to do with the situational stats aside from just not having enough cracks at it. Repeatable skill is one way to phrase it, some knack which you can count on is another. The RISP OPS says EXACTLY how a player has performed in these spots - nobody disagrees there. But it's predictive value - your ability to use it to say what WILL happen. I think the numbers are interesting, but say very little (if anything) about the player. This is an industry with 750 jobs nationwide - you don't make the Show without showing a ton of "character, moxie" or whatever. In a way to call anybody who made the big leagues unclutch is demeaning to just how enormous a challenge it is to engage in the gig.

Nick Punto hit .297 with bases loaded, 50 points higher than his career. Gomes is .231 (so basically put that runner on first and he suddenly poops himself). Most of the AB samples are too small to make any conclusion out. Also, what is clutch - is there a unified definition. Ortiz hit the Slam, but he has been pretty unclutch in the postseason since the last title. Does that mean the superpowers have gone awry? Beltran I am with you - I'd love to have him in October. But I'd like to have him in the other months too - he is a terrific baseball player.

of course he's UNHAPPY. He's a competitor - who wants to be benched? This is a non-story.

Farrell has a streak of old timey hunches and "veteran scappy gamerness" in his decisionmaking which keeps him from the very top of the managerial ranks in terms of the tactics/strategy. This is one of those areas. At the same time a straight platoon probably leaves Gomes on the bench too much and Nava on the field too much. And in a lot of these platoon cases, you can make a "stuff matchup" argument instead of a straight lefty-righty thing. If a righty loves himself a nasty changeup, then it makes sense for Gomes to play over Nava who could be particularly vulnerable from the left side. Stuff like that.