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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    What you have noted "Certain players perform above their skill levels" is describing a talent, a skill, a knack. A season's worth of "clutch ABs", whatever that means, is very small - far less than what you would want to make an evaluation on. Yes, there are players who will outperform or underperform their averages a little bit in higher leverage spots - but it's not very significant, and could just as easily be coincidence as anything else. The players who go down as clutch players are all great players. Ortiz (for one) doesn't need the artificial definitions when his actual talent level justifies it plenty.
  2. sk7326
    This nonsense came up when Ortiz hit the Grand Slam Sunday ... he has 2 hits the entire series. Were the rest of the moments unimportant? Does that mean he dogged it the rest of the time? Does it mean that Gomes dogs it the majority of his at-bats? I buy very much into clutch - there are clutch moments for sure. Papi's slam was clutch. I don't buy into clutch players. Note that all of the clutch players people talk about - are all actually good players in general. I want Papi up with the game on the line. I'd like him out there when the game is not on the line too. There is virtually nobody with a repeatable "gets better in situation X", nothing that has been recorded. And if they were, what would that say about their ability the rest of the time - that they cannot generate runs without some sort of external jump? In some worlds, that would be a working definition for "lazy"
  3. sk7326
    It's just hitting ... and you have to look at it as a skill for the stat to have any real predictive value. Hitting is the skill - it doesn't magically get better with baserunners on, certainly not in any way that can be repeated.
  4. sk7326
    Bogaerts defense can only really be evaluated as a combination of scouting reports and small samples - he has not played a ton of SS in his tour here, but he has done it decently. The scouts project him to be an average-fringy defensive SS. (his prospect hype is because his defense could be ok enough to play his bat there). Drew is a very good SS who looks inferior because we had Iglesias manning that spot. Has made the "should" plays and in Fenway made a couple of legitimately excellent Web Gem sort of plays (ranging for popups and such). XB is a young guy, but a good comment on his perceived athleticism was being lifted for a pinch runner (Middlebrooks) in the 9th yesterday. I think coming back with Middlebrooks-Bogaerts is not unfair at all ... but I think the defensive dropoff as SS is larger than the one at 3B. And the offensive upgrades might not be that different.
  5. sk7326
    Situational hitting is not a skill - unless the situation is "at the plate" ...
  6. sk7326
    Farrell has done a better job than Leyland for sure. At the same time, Leyland has done so little in terms of moves - that he limits the downside damage that could be done. None of the four managers in the LCS are in the Francona-Bob Melvin sort of level but Farrell has probably done the best job. It's not like he or Leyland is actively hurting their teams the way that Ron Washington does routinely in Texas.
  7. sk7326
    I think the Drew-Middlebrooks who should sit was a coin flip for Farrell. But Drew has been so good defensively - that I think this was the right choice. Both guys are struggling, and Bogaerts at 3rd represents a smaller dropoff defensively.
  8. sk7326
    Can always find a time horizon when someone is good, or someone is bad. It's why terms like "clutch" or "down the stretch" or "hot streak" are all really useless terms.
  9. sk7326
    It is not an unfair claim - Greinke would be most team's #1. Scherzer will win the Cy this year (deservedly, and really only he and Felix deserved consideration in the AL), but Greinke has a better track record. Verlander is probably the pitcher one would pick to win a game tomorrow. Kershaw is the pitcher you'd probably pick to have on your team the next 5 years.
  10. sk7326
    Gomes is also a good on-base guy ... that's how he could sustain a .240 average without dragging the team down. A perfect L/R split between Nava and Gomes is probably not advisable since that means Nava plays a bit more than he ought to. I think Gomes has been playing more in the postseason due to Farrell's old timey tendencieis (proven vet hooey), and also because he is just a more dangerous hitter than Nava, albeit less consistent. If both are scuffling, Gomes has a better chance to hit one out.
  11. sk7326
    Say hello, arbitrary endpoints ... bottom line, Middlebrooks was struggling and Bogaerts was an option and the team was not hitting period. It was not an overreaction to give him a start - and he definitely gave them a spark.
  12. sk7326
    I don't think Abreu affected their view of Napoli either way. After all if Abreu warranted (to them) an aggressive sign, they would have laid out. 6/68 is a cheap price for the next Frank Thomas (which is probably a fair indicator of whether that is in fact true). Napoli was going to be the top 1B in the market regardless ... he certainly warranted a QO. Now that's probably what happens - where he gets a QO while they work on a 1 + option sort of deal that makes sense for all. In particular defensively he has been kind of a revelation. Nobody will confuse him with Keith Hernandez or JT Snow or anything ... but he is clearly a good defensive player at that spot (which he never was as a catcher).
  13. sk7326
    White Sox were pro-active. Good for them. Abreu from the scouting that you see - average bat speed, great resume - but already Cespedes' age. Lacks the athleticism of Puig or Cespedes. Basically you are getting a true 1B sort - not necessarily a ton of defensive value. He could be good - but Napoli will be fine for another year. Clearly, his raw power has not dipped. Wow.
  14. sk7326
    Agreed - although Bogaerts in over Drew or Middlebrooks is not really an overreaction ... it is fair to throw something at the wall with the season increasingly in trouble. I wouldn't call it a panic move to make a substitution at 2 of the team's flimsier offensive positions.
  15. sk7326
    Enough of a 50-50 ball that it could have dropped and he might be too slow to get home on that play without a head start.
  16. sk7326
    great play by ells, and the ball was in doubt enough that vmart couldn't tag up ...
  17. sk7326
    Peavy is good - I mean he used to be one of the handful or so of "true #1 starters" before his shoulder injury. He is a legit #2/#3 now ... his ball is moving like crazy tonight.
  18. sk7326
    I will say the 2003 and 2004 occasions were the lowest I've ever felt as a fan of this team (OK, correction it was the Butch Hobson years because we were a legitimately bad team and franchise but you get the idea) ... 2003 because it was so close. 2004 because it was so humuliating. Yeah it made the victory 100 times sweeter, so it was good in the big picture, but that little picture sucked. I thought I was not old, but I see so many here who seem like they don't remember 2004 that fully let alone years before it. 2012 sucked in every way, and 2011 was heartbreaking. But, and I can say this with a little bit of "been there, done that" ... as Bob Ryan put it, these are the "good old days" we'll be talking about a decade from now. This has been unquestionably the best decade or so in post-Bambino Red Sox history.
  19. sk7326
    I think you need to reread the 2008 one. It was TAMPA who took the 3-1 lead. Red Sox next night, 7 down, 7 outs from elimination got up off the mat, staged a miracle quite possibly as amazing as what they did Sunday, forced the Game 7 and then lost.
  20. sk7326
    The Red Sox pitching edge in this series has been basically that they can turn around 9 well pitched innings more consistently than the Tigers can. The starters are not as dynamic as the Tigers so far, but if you can go starter-breslow/tazawa-uehara ... that is about as effective a 9 innings as you can ask for.
  21. sk7326
    I think with Cabrera hurt and the Sox dealing ... Leyland doesn't want to give up a bat unless he absolutely has to.
  22. sk7326
    It was what we noted when the Peavy trade happened. The team can wheel out a #2/#3 starter every night out - yeah having Verlander/Scherzer/Felix/Darvish would be awesome, but the Red Sox have a starter who can compete every time out. And the starters have been able to (except for the Game 2 start) get to the Breslow-Tazawa-Uehara portion of the show with minimal help. Basically, if you could script a game to be: starter-breslow/tazawa-uehara ... you'd take that every time.
  23. sk7326
    This stage of the season, there aren't trap games. All of these matter - I don't think anybody is looking past any game. The Red Sox have had a coin flip go in a coin flip series. They could easily be down 3-0 ... or with one or two swings of the bat in Game 1 could easily be up 3-0. This series has been very very closely contested and no reason to think it's going to change.
  24. sk7326
    More of a preference for the guys who have gotten them there. But they valued Bogaerts ability enough to have him on the 25-man. The reps still are a good thing. While yes, the team could use a jolt - it is 7-6 in runs over 3 games. His struggles are nothing special - this series has been a rock fight.
  25. sk7326
    Honestly - nobody has been hitting this series. I don't see how you single out any player ... FOR EITHER TEAM. Tomorrow, while Fister is also very good, there is a chance that the Red Sox might get a few more quality looks.
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