Jump to content
Talk Sox
  • Create Account

sk7326

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,663

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Boston Red Sox Videos

2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking

Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker

News

2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    It's 7 straight K's - which is a small sample, but reflective of the issues predicted when he was promoted. His failure - if it actually does not get better - means nothing for his future projections. It just means that the notion Benintendi was ahead of him in line was sound, and that friends don't let friends use minor league stat lines as conclusive proof of anything.
  2. sk7326
    All it says is that the craft is behind the athleticism - which is totally fine. It also means wait until the craft catches up ...
  3. sk7326
    Ortiz is a legend - and even the legend has had multiple postseason series where he was genuinely awful ... it is hard to discuss clutch because it just degenerates into a fiesta of confirmation bias
  4. sk7326
    Arbitrary end points aside, the total package is fine - the production has not necessarily been reliable, and (since I like baseball) his starts are often not fun to watch. It is maddening but a steal at the price.
  5. sk7326
    I am not sure if the rules are still in place about a 1-game playoff and the wild card game counting as separate "series" - that is, you can re-rack the roster after each one ... if so, those early pre-ALDS games could have some fun very atypical rosters
  6. sk7326
    Buchholz has #1 stuff - and has gotten those results in some good, but not sustained stretches. It's why a team cannot quit him, even though as a fan I'd love to. (his pace of play with runners on base is genuinely horrifying). Medlen was legitimately outstanding ... Ontiveros was lucky. Their respective cases are pretty clear there.
  7. sk7326
    Pomeranz is entirely possible. As I noted above, all three pitchers have good cases to be moved to the pen for the big show - it's an interesting question.
  8. sk7326
    Here is the thing - the analytics people love baseball ... I mean you love baseball - not exactly good enough to play yourself, but want to get in the sport. One of my favorite defenses was something John Hollinger said about NBA analytics: "guys who love basketball so much they want to do math and computer programming to study it" All the observers are doing is measuring what happened - that's it. UZR requires enormous samples (like multi-season ones) to draw any meaningful conclusions about players. But UZR is accurate about what actually happened - the same way that a .300 hitter can go for 0 for 10 ... the 0 for 10 says nothing about the dude's ability to hit, but clearly that stretch was not good. For me - stats are output ... measuring what happened. The stuff you talk about, the watching the games stuff - that is all input ... the thing which causes players to do or to not do stuff. Personally, the information out there now are just tools to give better information about what players are doing - information which has a more realistic basis than RBIs and pitcher wins (let alone saves).
  9. sk7326
    there were some bad outings ... essentally an extreme homerun spike - but the other stuff was same as ever (striking out plenty of dudes)
  10. sk7326
    Ontiveros' season was over 115 IP with an unthinkable .234 BABIP. He had a tiny 13.8% strikeout rate ... basically he was a strike thrower (5.8%) who took advantage of playing in a great pitcher's park Medlen pitched 138 innings and had a .261 BABIP and pretty-in line 23.1% strikeout rate ... his season was short but legitimately outstanding ... injuries suck
  11. sk7326
    #1 was Kris Medlen (2012) #2 was Steve Ontiveros (1994) If you go to FIP- ... rating against peripherals ... to give you some appreciation Pedro Martinez (among starters) had Seasons #1 (1999), #2 (2001), #4 (2000), and #10 (2003) ... two Big Unit seasons rounded out the Top 5 For good measure, Pedro's 1997 season (the pre-Boston one) and 2002 seasons also cracked the Top 25.
  12. sk7326
    For me the two big questions in September (aside from the obvious - are we getting in) is 1. Uehara's health. If he is healthy and good to go - enough that he can retake his late inning role - that simplifies a lot of the bullpen stuff. 2. Joe Kelly. Anybody who has seen him knew that this might be his ultimate destiny. Can he consistently deliver in shorter bursts.
  13. sk7326
    Really a matter of where they are ... now there is real value in getting the division (e.g. automatic ALDS qualification). But management will have an interesting calculation to make. If they are down say 2 games with a week to go but comfortably in the wild card spot, perhaps the impetus to burn through the staff is not quite as great. I don't know. When we get to October (and late September and beyond) you probably shorten the leash across the board - be ready to pull Price and Porcello 4th time through the order, 3rd time through for anybody else.
  14. sk7326
    They are businesses - but they are purchased and sold like pieces of art .. or a first edition comic (if you are into that sort of thing) ... a fun thing for a well-off (in this case exceptionally so) hobbyist to own to be able to say "dude, check this out"
  15. sk7326
    They have a budget - but it is not driven by law (like a hard salary cap) ... it is not driven by affordability (nobody is going to be skipping meals) ... it is driven by how much some very rich people want to put into their plaything. I recognize the constraints you have noted - constraints which the Red Sox have chosen. I also recognize that those constraints are entirely voluntary - and thus have relatively low patience for rationalizations in that direction. I respect that the Red Sox have put a ton of money into the club and the park. Given the prices they charge and the numerous monetizing opportunities they have exploited, it's the least they can do. Now someone called baseball an odd duck as a business - that is because it is a business, but to the owners, it is essentially akin to owning a piece of valuable art. It provides status, it feels cool to own something you like, and you will make a killing whenever you choose to sell it.
  16. sk7326
    He made one 4 inning relief performance in the last baseball game of the season - obviously rules change in elimination scenarios ... and if that means starting Derek Lowe on 2 days rest because there was literally no other choice, you do it and hope for (and perhaps even get) the best.
  17. sk7326
    The local television money is the best estimator of relative position - the Red Sox is huh-yooge. The Red Sox are rolling in it - and it's perfectly nice for ownership to want to make money. Nobody is asking them to make a stupid business decision. But the contracts are not shackling them from making a decision - the money is there. The counterfactual moon poses "imagine if we did not have albatross contracts - how much more money would we have" is a little silly. If we did not have those contracts, maybe the Sox would spend more, maybe it would go into the owners pockets. I don't think those contracts are any real impediment - aside from an impediment to ego.
  18. sk7326
    It's Pomeranz-Rodriguez-Buchholz for two spots ... and "who can provide the most value coming out of the pen?" is a very meaningful question to ask (because Wright clearly is the long-man). What is interesting is that there are pretty good arguments for any of the choices.
  19. sk7326
    I don't think he means it as punishment ... it is about trying to find a guy who can do what Lincecum did for the Giants in 2012. If Buchholz can come in two or three times in a series and get 6 outs - that will be more valuable than one Game 4 start.
  20. sk7326
    I am in agreement on their quality mostly ... Heyward has had four seasons of >5.8 bWAR or more ... that is an elite profile (a number which puts you firmly in the Top 10 of the NL). His combination has been superb defense and getting on base frequently (the most important offensive skill). Now I think you can fairly ask whether the scale is correct (the offense: defense weights). Is his excellent fielding really saving enough runs to equate to 3 wins? I tend to lean towards offense with two players of similar WAR, only because I think the defensive component (doesn't matter which flavor) has a much higher ranger of uncertainty (in terms of its contribution to run prevention) than the offensive stuff.
  21. sk7326
    Step 1 is get to the postseason ... Step 2: See Step 1 That being said, the interesting question is which of Pomeranz, Rodriguez or Buchholz would you want to transition to a bullpen weapon if we get a chance to play some postseason ball. Pomeranz is experienced, but I could see Rodriguez' stuff playing up in the 3-6 out bursts.
  22. sk7326
    Right now, the Red Sox have a clear top 3 postseason rotation: Price, Porcello, Pomeranz ... now (if Wright gets back, which is an open question), Wright and Rodriguez for the #4 starter is the interesting question. Really the question becomes whose stuff can play up in bursts to punch up the bullpen.
  23. sk7326
    well that is marketing and partnering with card manufacturers and I think baseball reference has had a significant first mover advantage (as the site which basically rendered the baseball encyclopedia obsolete).
  24. sk7326
    I'll give one - I am not sure I agree, but it is the best choice for this topic ... Jason Heyward He has had flashes of tremendous offensive output - but for the most part he has been noteworthy for good on-base skills, but maddening inconsistency in terms of delivering power or stuff that makes the highlights. But he has registered consistently as one of the league's best outfielders - and most of it has been built on superb defense in RF. Your view on defensive measurement will significantly influence whether WAR is delivering the mail there. Victorino in 2013 being a legitimate downballot MVP is another.
  25. sk7326
    I don't think it is anything psychological or anything. He is basically a golfer who can drown in swing thoughts at times. Overcomplicate the mechanics and stuff. He has ace stuff, always has ... but doesn't always let it fly. At this point he is what he is - but for stretches, that can be pretty darn good.
×
×
  • Create New...