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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    4 tops - and really I'd just let Ramirez figure it out first.
  2. sk7326
    Because of what he was able to do coming up basically on talent alone. (that's a pretty crazy slash considering) That he has stunk in his audition means nothing. Some guys had good auditions that did not take immediately (Bogaerts) down the line, and others had awful auditions which ended up working out pretty well the following season (that guy who plays second base). In some ways it is good he actually gets to see how far he is. And the 3B audition was an interesting idea - the Sox did not "need" to do anything, but if Moncada could hang, the ceiling is very high. No worries.
  3. sk7326
    i wonder if there is at least some correlation with bullpen strength ... which would not stun me ... in addition pythagorean formula is really a long run estimator ... does not mean that strength of schedule and stuff doesn't matter when thinking inside of a season. The general formual works though - after all runs are good and preventing runs is good too (maybe even a tad better).
  4. sk7326
    i would be amazed if he was put out there at any less than 95% or so. With Young back they might platoon more vigilantly and make sure he gets days off.
  5. sk7326
    $13M buys you Ryan Dempster ... which is fine ... put simply, at that price - in the FA market - you're going to get a lot of mediocre innings or a relatively low number of pretty good ones.
  6. sk7326
    Relievers are hit or miss across years too. (after all almost all relievers are failed starters - so they are an inherently less reliable cohort - and the small sample sizes means that stats can vary wildly). Really if you just lined up guys with high strikeout rates and took your chances and be vigilant about churn you could do something.
  7. sk7326
    There was no real reason to believe in any of those guys - especially Colon taking his glorious 84 mph fastball to the DH league.
  8. sk7326
    Farrell will have to determine whether he wants to risk the 3rd and 4th time through the order penalties that he has dealt with vis a vis the starters - in the postseason. Price has had some problems - although on a start to start basis, a lot of the starts were things falling apart 4th time through the lineup without the manager doing anything. A lot of his rough starts have had the feel of the Lester 2014 playoff start - a manager not moving a muscle while the season slips away.
  9. sk7326
    The numbers say one thing - the 2016 numbers. The longer run numbers put Price at #1. And nothing Price has done this season gives reason to throw out the long run as a consideration. While Porcello's season allows me to set aside the first half of 2015 as some horrible lapse - Price's last 3 or 4 years allow me to set aside his bumpy starts this season in the consideration - a 3 or 4 years clearly better than Porcello. There are three starters for two positions. To me, it is not simply a matter of which two starters are the "best" - there is a decent chance to punch up the bullpen at the same time and you should take advantage of that opportunity. With Pomeranz having pen experience and being up against a career high in IP, and with Rodriguez having some wipeout stuff which could play up out of the pen, AND with Buchholz actually having done it this season ... Farrell has an interesting dilemma. To me ERod has the highest risk (since he has not pitched out of the pen) and the highest upside.
  10. sk7326
    The batted ball premise is the difference between the the two measures of WAR. fWAR essentially treats it as random, and bWAR doesn't. The truth unfortunately is squishy. So fWAR can understate for a pitcher who actually has a history of allowing lower BABIPs. Porcello 4.2 bWAR, 4.0 fWAR Price 3.2 bWAR, 4.5 fWAR Porcello's performance has been less variable - but it has been fairly close. If you average them it is Porcello 4.1, Price 3.85 - which seems about right. Clearly Price has had some bad outings - but he has provided tremendous bulk value even when he has scuffled. (i.e. he has pitched a lot of innings, and has had a knack for rescuing bad starts to turn over something competitive) And his underlying peripherals are largely what they always were. Porcello has been more consistent obviously. Price to me is the clear choice if it is one game for all the marbles. There has been bumps as he has gotten used to a new gig - but he is the same pitcher he ever was.
  11. sk7326
    The bad news is the Sox aren't playing the A's and Diamondbacks anymore. The good news is that the Sox are playing everybody they have to beat - it's all in front of them. As noted above, I wish we had picked off one or two more games of the last 16 ... but the 9-7 is completely okay. Rotation has been pretty good - now Farrell has to figure out the pitchers who he can trust.
  12. sk7326
    At times it doesn't look like they are playing well - because there hasn't been that 19 wins in 23 games sort of stretch - but they have been very steady ... this "softer" 16 game stretch ended 9-7, which is a game or two less than would have been nice, but still all in the right direction.
  13. sk7326
    Maybe - spending a ton of money on relievers makes me puke in my mouth. There is - on some level - no such thing as proven RPs.
  14. sk7326
    I don't necessarily agree - because the team did not "need" either. The Sox had been the top offense in the league by a good margin all season. Both of those positions could have been patchworked without derailing the party - especially with Leon's Ivan Rodriguez impersonation at the plate. I think they legitimately believed Benintendi could/would be one of their four best outfielders.
  15. sk7326
    Of course - but the reason he was ahead (I reckon) comes in the scouting ... and in the very small sample, you can see (with your eyes - see, that's me talking about the mental part of the game!) there is just a lot more craft in what Benintendi does. There is a reason he has been promoted super aggressively - and it is because he can handle it.
  16. sk7326
    Pitching is the need ... there are no other high need areas. $13M for a decent pitcher is a solid value.
  17. sk7326
    Stats don't purport to ... they measure results ... the physical, mental - whatever - are the stuff that goes into getting results. If measurable results aren't there - then there is a deficiency in the other stuff (physical, mental, general character, body odor, et al.). Players are expert on the inputs (mostly). I am sure Koosman was more liked than Seaver - Seaver's results were better, when the games mattered a lot and when they mattered less. That is mastery of the mental, physical whatever aspects. The "stats don't measure" argument is a terrific strawman - because of course they don't.
  18. sk7326
    You pick up the option because in the Red Sox context, it basically costs them nothing
  19. sk7326
    I take players seriously when they talk about what leadership is, the stuff they have to do to get ready - and what really matters to them ... stuff about the job of playing baseball, which I clearly do not know anything about - that is where the human element it. Results/output can be measured pretty objectively. Clutchy McClutcherson stuff would show up in the results. Guys who soiled their drawers under pressure would be org players in places like Greenville or Altoona.
  20. sk7326
    A fiesta of conformation bias and mythmaking ... David Ortiz is justifiably a legend who had sub .700 OPSs in 7 of the 17 postseason series he played in. (and 3 different ones where he had a batting average below .100 - and one of those series containing one of those legendary clutch moments) Alex Rodriguez is notably unclutch while being absolutely the runaway best player in a World Series run David Price gets called un-clutch while coming out of the pen and saving the highest leverage spot of his career 8 years ago. Players are multitudes - we (and they) see what we want to see.
  21. sk7326
    It's 7 straight K's - which is a small sample, but reflective of the issues predicted when he was promoted. His failure - if it actually does not get better - means nothing for his future projections. It just means that the notion Benintendi was ahead of him in line was sound, and that friends don't let friends use minor league stat lines as conclusive proof of anything.
  22. sk7326
    All it says is that the craft is behind the athleticism - which is totally fine. It also means wait until the craft catches up ...
  23. sk7326
    Ortiz is a legend - and even the legend has had multiple postseason series where he was genuinely awful ... it is hard to discuss clutch because it just degenerates into a fiesta of confirmation bias
  24. sk7326
    Arbitrary end points aside, the total package is fine - the production has not necessarily been reliable, and (since I like baseball) his starts are often not fun to watch. It is maddening but a steal at the price.
  25. sk7326
    I am not sure if the rules are still in place about a 1-game playoff and the wild card game counting as separate "series" - that is, you can re-rack the roster after each one ... if so, those early pre-ALDS games could have some fun very atypical rosters
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