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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Well with the Guardians that is a fair-ish ask - but for both teams it is strong positional depth. Now I don't think the Guardians actually make that move - under control and the team is good. The White Sox on the other hand are not - and so trading your best chip for a chance to add some premium talent is a sound play. And if they believe Don Cooper (like Ray Searage in Pittsburgh) gives them a competitive advantage as a pitching coach - maybe they feel comfortable taking the plunge with somebody else.
  2. sk7326
    the 2-1 games have often been about us not getting a hit in a key spot - the chances have still been there. On one level it makes it more frustrating on another, all you can do is give yourself a shot sometimes.
  3. sk7326
    Sox have scored 802 runs this season ... need 82 runs in 19 games to get to Toronto's 884 from last season. No team outside of Colorado has more than 713 runs this season to date.
  4. sk7326
    I think the "25 players per series" rule makes sense - you can carry a roster of any size, but you have to lock in 25 for a given series.
  5. sk7326
    If Betts is potential Top 10 btw, it is only because I assume there are 10 better player in the league - there might not be this year, and there surely won't be the next few. Again, for the right guy you listen - an ace sort qualifies. Kluber is an interesting one - because the Guardians have a lot of starting pitching. One of the Mets starters is another (although clearly Harvey would have been the most likely and we know how that is turning out). Sale, Quintana etc. I would also advocate (at a lesser price) to see if you could make a sneak attack and nab Verlander - who is more expensive (duh) but really damn good. I'd even call the Rangers on Darvish - but they are about as loaded with young positional stud talent as we are. And yes - I am also betting the under on Bradley for next season, although I expect him to be a solid starting CF for his career.
  6. sk7326
    Well it was enough to sway the opinion to the "he is too raw for the bigs" - which is totally fine. Striking out eleventy times in a row is a good indicator the time is not now. I think the Sox know there is a chance to run with the 3B job - but it is not an urgent need. If Travis Shaw is your #8 hitter, your lineup is pretty damn good.
  7. sk7326
    And so you have the balance then ... would the dropoff between the two positions be offset by increase in another position (say the rotation) ... I never advocate trading anybody - but you have young controllable talent, and a surplus of it - that's what it's for.
  8. sk7326
    The pythagorean thing is not meant to be a forecasting tool - it provides a context for run differential as an indicator of team strength. I think the "difference" between teams is more useful than the records themselves.
  9. sk7326
    Because we have a Top 10 player to replace him ...
  10. sk7326
    As I'll always note, Dustin Pedroia in 2006 was among the league's worst regulars during his pot of coffee. Things change, and kids change a lot all the time - it's why you sign them.
  11. sk7326
    If there is a rout - there might be a time for some mopup - which is fine. And certainly worth seeing if he can offer any value at all. The 9 relievers for postseason are very much up in the air. It is nice to talk in those terms.
  12. sk7326
    If he can be dealt as part of a way to get a Cy Young caliber pitcher - that seems like a fair return. When I suggest trades it is almost never about not liking the guy being dealt.
  13. sk7326
    There are trades and free agents based on MLB rules - so projections at this time seem dicey. Really, you sign a bunch of pitchers with some swing and miss and see what sticks bullpenwise. Maybe they look at dealing Bradley as part of a trade for a Sale or Quintana (deals that were discussed but tabled at the deadline). It frees Betts to move to CF, and the Sox can negotiate LF (assuming Benintendi moves to RF for range reasons) either year-to-year, or maybe put Moncada there and see what happens - like they did with Cora in 2007, you sign a decent veteran on the chance the kid isn't any good. (Shaw is probably good enough at 3B not to fuss with that too much).
  14. sk7326
    No - but worth giving him some work if possible. He has major league swing and miss stuff - but has no idea where the pitches are going.
  15. sk7326
    4 tops - and really I'd just let Ramirez figure it out first.
  16. sk7326
    Because of what he was able to do coming up basically on talent alone. (that's a pretty crazy slash considering) That he has stunk in his audition means nothing. Some guys had good auditions that did not take immediately (Bogaerts) down the line, and others had awful auditions which ended up working out pretty well the following season (that guy who plays second base). In some ways it is good he actually gets to see how far he is. And the 3B audition was an interesting idea - the Sox did not "need" to do anything, but if Moncada could hang, the ceiling is very high. No worries.
  17. sk7326
    i wonder if there is at least some correlation with bullpen strength ... which would not stun me ... in addition pythagorean formula is really a long run estimator ... does not mean that strength of schedule and stuff doesn't matter when thinking inside of a season. The general formual works though - after all runs are good and preventing runs is good too (maybe even a tad better).
  18. sk7326
    i would be amazed if he was put out there at any less than 95% or so. With Young back they might platoon more vigilantly and make sure he gets days off.
  19. sk7326
    $13M buys you Ryan Dempster ... which is fine ... put simply, at that price - in the FA market - you're going to get a lot of mediocre innings or a relatively low number of pretty good ones.
  20. sk7326
    Relievers are hit or miss across years too. (after all almost all relievers are failed starters - so they are an inherently less reliable cohort - and the small sample sizes means that stats can vary wildly). Really if you just lined up guys with high strikeout rates and took your chances and be vigilant about churn you could do something.
  21. sk7326
    There was no real reason to believe in any of those guys - especially Colon taking his glorious 84 mph fastball to the DH league.
  22. sk7326
    Farrell will have to determine whether he wants to risk the 3rd and 4th time through the order penalties that he has dealt with vis a vis the starters - in the postseason. Price has had some problems - although on a start to start basis, a lot of the starts were things falling apart 4th time through the lineup without the manager doing anything. A lot of his rough starts have had the feel of the Lester 2014 playoff start - a manager not moving a muscle while the season slips away.
  23. sk7326
    The numbers say one thing - the 2016 numbers. The longer run numbers put Price at #1. And nothing Price has done this season gives reason to throw out the long run as a consideration. While Porcello's season allows me to set aside the first half of 2015 as some horrible lapse - Price's last 3 or 4 years allow me to set aside his bumpy starts this season in the consideration - a 3 or 4 years clearly better than Porcello. There are three starters for two positions. To me, it is not simply a matter of which two starters are the "best" - there is a decent chance to punch up the bullpen at the same time and you should take advantage of that opportunity. With Pomeranz having pen experience and being up against a career high in IP, and with Rodriguez having some wipeout stuff which could play up out of the pen, AND with Buchholz actually having done it this season ... Farrell has an interesting dilemma. To me ERod has the highest risk (since he has not pitched out of the pen) and the highest upside.
  24. sk7326
    The batted ball premise is the difference between the the two measures of WAR. fWAR essentially treats it as random, and bWAR doesn't. The truth unfortunately is squishy. So fWAR can understate for a pitcher who actually has a history of allowing lower BABIPs. Porcello 4.2 bWAR, 4.0 fWAR Price 3.2 bWAR, 4.5 fWAR Porcello's performance has been less variable - but it has been fairly close. If you average them it is Porcello 4.1, Price 3.85 - which seems about right. Clearly Price has had some bad outings - but he has provided tremendous bulk value even when he has scuffled. (i.e. he has pitched a lot of innings, and has had a knack for rescuing bad starts to turn over something competitive) And his underlying peripherals are largely what they always were. Porcello has been more consistent obviously. Price to me is the clear choice if it is one game for all the marbles. There has been bumps as he has gotten used to a new gig - but he is the same pitcher he ever was.
  25. sk7326
    The bad news is the Sox aren't playing the A's and Diamondbacks anymore. The good news is that the Sox are playing everybody they have to beat - it's all in front of them. As noted above, I wish we had picked off one or two more games of the last 16 ... but the 9-7 is completely okay. Rotation has been pretty good - now Farrell has to figure out the pitchers who he can trust.
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