sk7326

industry is a lot smarter now

It's not about his feelings - it's about his body. Even if he is ready to pitch - will he be ready to handle 170 big league innings in 2 years ... you have to bet the under. And his body still has to fill out (it is the best argument for moving Espinoza).

Of course - but for me the situations are pretty small ... and with our team i am very careful about punting chances at crooked numbers

Easier to let Ortiz, Betts or Pedroia do the manufacturing ... LOB correlates with teams that can hit

With the current playoff eligiblity rules, the 40 man is all that matters. They simplified the process to avoid most of the DL hijinks of the past.

He throws a knuckleball ... if the knuckleball feels like rolling out of bed and going to work, things will be fine. If the knuckleball comes down with a cold, or has a bad attitude, it's trouble. Wright is basically a jockey here - on some basic level, it's up to the horse whether to do its thing. I've given up on thinking too much about it.

They have an extra spot already. You could easily move Hanigan to the 60 day DL if you were desperate. Because of the DL, Moncada does not have to be added next week. He just has to be added at some point to be playoff eligible. (thanks Panda!)

The way pitching staffs are used - there would be an opening for a guy who actually could pitch 100 relief innings ... not a long man per se - but somebody who could reliably pitch to 6 or 9 hitters a couple times a week. Buchholz could be valuable there. Either way, good he has found some feel.

I suspect he simply didn't know.

Yes. Although he could also be an injury replacement - and be added to the 40 in September and be playoff eligible on those grounds. (say replacing somebody on the 60 day DL who has served those 60 days already) Because of this I do not expect the Sox to add him ...save the roster spot for a trade So - Moncada could theoretically be added on the last day of the season to the 40-man and then be playoff eligible as a replacement for Sandoval.

sigh - Archer is good

i agree - Betts has sagged from his 3 homeruns in one game pace. Benintendi has also stopped hitting .400 ... the nerve. It's baseball - the production has not sagged meaningfully. Bradley is a more significant drop - but even then he is not giving away at bats.

i worry less about that - after all, the Sox developmental targets stand outside of the box score in that sort of sense. Crackerjack guys tend to announce themselves right away. This is not like burning a major league contract on a draftee.

Good player playing well leads to win ... film at 11

Sox numbers very good here ... at the same time Archer has had the same sort of season Corey Kluber had last season - going to pile up a ton of losses, but when you look really hard - he has actually pitched fairly well. But yes, this is a bad matchup for him.

1. Not my money - if Benintendi is good, and Henry cries poor, then it's the org not having the same priorities fans do - and it's good to know that 2. Service time is by days in the bigs - you can stop the clock by sending him back and bringing him back in September

I expect some asset consolidation in the offseason. Shaw is good enough to start at a corner for SOMEBODY. Bradley is under team control for three more seasons - and given what he is that makes him a very valuable guy as a trade piece. The Red Sox have a lot of options there ... * Move Benintendi to CF * Move Betts to CF

Owens was still getting swings and misses - his career swinging strikes percentage is a pretty hefty 20% (to give you some perspective CC Sabbathia's career is 17.0% in this area. Even with the dropoff this year (Owens is 16.3%, about what Sabbathia was getting in 2010). The problem is that he is just not throwing enough strikes. We all knew coming up there would be an element of pitching backwards with him - but you still have to actually throw your fastball in the strike zone with some regularity. Fortunately it's not too big a deal ... I mean at this point you have to say the rotation is (ducking lightning bolt) fine.

The situations where bunting (as a sacrifice, not as an attempt to hit) and intentionally walking guys are way, way, way, WAY smaller than the world seems to think.

If you look at Bogaerts situation - ARB years 2017, 2018, 2019 then into the blue yonder ... a Free Agent entering his Age 27 season. So let's price his 2020 and 2021 seasons at 35M and 38M, which for a guy his age with the revenue jumps you'd project seems like a pretty reasonable guess. So now the arb years ... since almost nobody actually goes to arbitration anymore, the comps analysis for arbs are pretty useless. That said, clearly the Red Sox have leverage here. So let's plug in $10M, $12M, $16M ... if you use a 7% discount rate, this comes to an AAV of $17.4M ($86.7M/5 years). So, a long term deal should be able to give more money up front, while maintaining the AAV (so you pay a fair price to buy a couple years of FA). So something like 5 years at $21.1M per year would get you an equivalent total value ... and be a fair price for the extension. For the Sox, it buys two years of his free agency - for Bogaerts it gets him $20M more up front and still gets him into the FA pool before his 29th birthday.

take yourself out of a chance to put up a crooked number? no thanks.

I think we are in basic agreement here - although you are shouting from the mountaintop we share much more loudly.

It impacts both teams equally which is the saving grace. At the same time - the technology is there to fix it easily (or to really help) - and what you have now is umps going after players and showing them up - when often they are uncontroversially wrong without any way to fix it. Given the huge marginal differences in BA based on count - the mistakes make significant differences, all the time ...

I think Hanigan could move to the 60 without much trouble - if the Red Sox REALLY wanted to.

I think they are holding it for trade - since they can use Moncada as a DL replacement, there is no urgency to put him on the 40 for playoff eligibility reasons.