sk7326

Buchholz has #1 stuff - and has gotten those results in some good, but not sustained stretches. It's why a team cannot quit him, even though as a fan I'd love to. (his pace of play with runners on base is genuinely horrifying). Medlen was legitimately outstanding ... Ontiveros was lucky. Their respective cases are pretty clear there.

Pomeranz is entirely possible. As I noted above, all three pitchers have good cases to be moved to the pen for the big show - it's an interesting question.

Here is the thing - the analytics people love baseball ... I mean you love baseball - not exactly good enough to play yourself, but want to get in the sport. One of my favorite defenses was something John Hollinger said about NBA analytics: "guys who love basketball so much they want to do math and computer programming to study it" All the observers are doing is measuring what happened - that's it. UZR requires enormous samples (like multi-season ones) to draw any meaningful conclusions about players. But UZR is accurate about what actually happened - the same way that a .300 hitter can go for 0 for 10 ... the 0 for 10 says nothing about the dude's ability to hit, but clearly that stretch was not good. For me - stats are output ... measuring what happened. The stuff you talk about, the watching the games stuff - that is all input ... the thing which causes players to do or to not do stuff. Personally, the information out there now are just tools to give better information about what players are doing - information which has a more realistic basis than RBIs and pitcher wins (let alone saves).

there were some bad outings ... essentally an extreme homerun spike - but the other stuff was same as ever (striking out plenty of dudes)

Ontiveros' season was over 115 IP with an unthinkable .234 BABIP. He had a tiny 13.8% strikeout rate ... basically he was a strike thrower (5.8%) who took advantage of playing in a great pitcher's park Medlen pitched 138 innings and had a .261 BABIP and pretty-in line 23.1% strikeout rate ... his season was short but legitimately outstanding ... injuries suck

#1 was Kris Medlen (2012) #2 was Steve Ontiveros (1994) If you go to FIP- ... rating against peripherals ... to give you some appreciation Pedro Martinez (among starters) had Seasons #1 (1999), #2 (2001), #4 (2000), and #10 (2003) ... two Big Unit seasons rounded out the Top 5 For good measure, Pedro's 1997 season (the pre-Boston one) and 2002 seasons also cracked the Top 25.

For me the two big questions in September (aside from the obvious - are we getting in) is 1. Uehara's health. If he is healthy and good to go - enough that he can retake his late inning role - that simplifies a lot of the bullpen stuff. 2. Joe Kelly. Anybody who has seen him knew that this might be his ultimate destiny. Can he consistently deliver in shorter bursts.

Really a matter of where they are ... now there is real value in getting the division (e.g. automatic ALDS qualification). But management will have an interesting calculation to make. If they are down say 2 games with a week to go but comfortably in the wild card spot, perhaps the impetus to burn through the staff is not quite as great. I don't know. When we get to October (and late September and beyond) you probably shorten the leash across the board - be ready to pull Price and Porcello 4th time through the order, 3rd time through for anybody else.

They are businesses - but they are purchased and sold like pieces of art .. or a first edition comic (if you are into that sort of thing) ... a fun thing for a well-off (in this case exceptionally so) hobbyist to own to be able to say "dude, check this out"

They have a budget - but it is not driven by law (like a hard salary cap) ... it is not driven by affordability (nobody is going to be skipping meals) ... it is driven by how much some very rich people want to put into their plaything. I recognize the constraints you have noted - constraints which the Red Sox have chosen. I also recognize that those constraints are entirely voluntary - and thus have relatively low patience for rationalizations in that direction. I respect that the Red Sox have put a ton of money into the club and the park. Given the prices they charge and the numerous monetizing opportunities they have exploited, it's the least they can do. Now someone called baseball an odd duck as a business - that is because it is a business, but to the owners, it is essentially akin to owning a piece of valuable art. It provides status, it feels cool to own something you like, and you will make a killing whenever you choose to sell it.

He made one 4 inning relief performance in the last baseball game of the season - obviously rules change in elimination scenarios ... and if that means starting Derek Lowe on 2 days rest because there was literally no other choice, you do it and hope for (and perhaps even get) the best.

The local television money is the best estimator of relative position - the Red Sox is huh-yooge. The Red Sox are rolling in it - and it's perfectly nice for ownership to want to make money. Nobody is asking them to make a stupid business decision. But the contracts are not shackling them from making a decision - the money is there. The counterfactual moon poses "imagine if we did not have albatross contracts - how much more money would we have" is a little silly. If we did not have those contracts, maybe the Sox would spend more, maybe it would go into the owners pockets. I don't think those contracts are any real impediment - aside from an impediment to ego.

It's Pomeranz-Rodriguez-Buchholz for two spots ... and "who can provide the most value coming out of the pen?" is a very meaningful question to ask (because Wright clearly is the long-man). What is interesting is that there are pretty good arguments for any of the choices.

I don't think he means it as punishment ... it is about trying to find a guy who can do what Lincecum did for the Giants in 2012. If Buchholz can come in two or three times in a series and get 6 outs - that will be more valuable than one Game 4 start.

I am in agreement on their quality mostly ... Heyward has had four seasons of >5.8 bWAR or more ... that is an elite profile (a number which puts you firmly in the Top 10 of the NL). His combination has been superb defense and getting on base frequently (the most important offensive skill). Now I think you can fairly ask whether the scale is correct (the offense: defense weights). Is his excellent fielding really saving enough runs to equate to 3 wins? I tend to lean towards offense with two players of similar WAR, only because I think the defensive component (doesn't matter which flavor) has a much higher ranger of uncertainty (in terms of its contribution to run prevention) than the offensive stuff.

Step 1 is get to the postseason ... Step 2: See Step 1 That being said, the interesting question is which of Pomeranz, Rodriguez or Buchholz would you want to transition to a bullpen weapon if we get a chance to play some postseason ball. Pomeranz is experienced, but I could see Rodriguez' stuff playing up in the 3-6 out bursts.

Right now, the Red Sox have a clear top 3 postseason rotation: Price, Porcello, Pomeranz ... now (if Wright gets back, which is an open question), Wright and Rodriguez for the #4 starter is the interesting question. Really the question becomes whose stuff can play up in bursts to punch up the bullpen.

well that is marketing and partnering with card manufacturers and I think baseball reference has had a significant first mover advantage (as the site which basically rendered the baseball encyclopedia obsolete).

I'll give one - I am not sure I agree, but it is the best choice for this topic ... Jason Heyward He has had flashes of tremendous offensive output - but for the most part he has been noteworthy for good on-base skills, but maddening inconsistency in terms of delivering power or stuff that makes the highlights. But he has registered consistently as one of the league's best outfielders - and most of it has been built on superb defense in RF. Your view on defensive measurement will significantly influence whether WAR is delivering the mail there. Victorino in 2013 being a legitimate downballot MVP is another.

I don't think it is anything psychological or anything. He is basically a golfer who can drown in swing thoughts at times. Overcomplicate the mechanics and stuff. He has ace stuff, always has ... but doesn't always let it fly. At this point he is what he is - but for stretches, that can be pretty darn good.

it's not an error - it is a perspective ...

The formula for WAR is complicated - because there is a lot of normalization (to get numbers measured on different scales to add up) - but the fact that bWAR and fWAR are calculated differently should INCREASE your confidence. The two sites differ in WAR, because they have a couple of fundamentally different assumptions about player performance. That is great - better to have a couple of perspectives on this question than a stat like fielding percentage which tells you literally nothing helpful. One of the major differences between the two was the notion of what "replacement level" is - but they have come to some sort of consensus on that. This is big, as it at least puts the two on the same scale. But you look at position players - WAR is essentially identical between the two. The differences are in defensive measurement, and neither of those differences are that huge. Pitcher WAR differs, but it differs because the two sites have different ways of trying to separate a pitcher's contribution to run prevention. Fangraphs fundamentally gives pitchers less control over batted balls in play Baseball Reference does. This explains the huge gap in David Price's season for instance. The key thing is - I don't think that the question is settled (how separable is pitcher and fielding performance in terms of run prevention), and it is worthwhile to see how tweaking the assumptions changes the picture. The two versions of WAR ask fans to basically engage the numbers and why they are the way they are - the fundamental assumptions about player value, and why good stuff happens. Remember, RBIs are also a made up stat - arbitrarily assigning credit for a run scoring. You are right to a certain degree about offense vs defense. Chicks dig the longball - so people will always talk about homers and hitting and such - there is an inherent bias there. At the same time, defensive measurement IS much flimsier than offensive measurement. So yes, if I see two players with close WAR and one builds it with defensive value (see Victorino in 2013), it would move them down the rankings for me a little bit. But the defensive value is there - and it is nice that we can at least bound the contribution. When Bradley stunk at the plate, we DID hear about his defensive brilliance - because we knew that the equation could work if he hit enough. But he was so dreadful offensively, that no defense could overcome it. Outfield assists are a great extra parlor trick Bradley has - uncommonly good for a CF - but outfield assists are generally fairly random and a function of opportunity. And in a sense, your best bet to get outfield assists is to have an above average arm, but not a great one (because then nobody would run on you).

They DO have that kind of money (they ALWAYS have that kind of money) ... it is whether Steel Drivin John Henry wants to.

They didn't need him really. Yes, 3B sucked - and it would be awesome if Moncada could fix it. It is worth a look. But - if Benintendi gets back (and there is some question there), the Red Sox are average at worst offensively in 7 of the 8 regular positions. They could live with "solid defense, occasionally dangerous" at 3B. I am happy to get a look at Moncada - but we know command and breaking stuff is a different level at the show - and so a guy who had significant contact problems as Double-A was a high risk of flailing at the big league level. From his minor league stats - it seems like approach on some level is sound - he does walk quite a bit. But the craft has to catch up to the athleticism - and that's cool, he's still a baby relatively - and it is probably not going to happen during the season. I will be delighted to be proven wrong here.

Not sugarcoating - but at least you had a guy who missed bats up there, that's all.