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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    At times it doesn't look like they are playing well - because there hasn't been that 19 wins in 23 games sort of stretch - but they have been very steady ... this "softer" 16 game stretch ended 9-7, which is a game or two less than would have been nice, but still all in the right direction.
  2. sk7326
    Maybe - spending a ton of money on relievers makes me puke in my mouth. There is - on some level - no such thing as proven RPs.
  3. sk7326
    I don't necessarily agree - because the team did not "need" either. The Sox had been the top offense in the league by a good margin all season. Both of those positions could have been patchworked without derailing the party - especially with Leon's Ivan Rodriguez impersonation at the plate. I think they legitimately believed Benintendi could/would be one of their four best outfielders.
  4. sk7326
    Of course - but the reason he was ahead (I reckon) comes in the scouting ... and in the very small sample, you can see (with your eyes - see, that's me talking about the mental part of the game!) there is just a lot more craft in what Benintendi does. There is a reason he has been promoted super aggressively - and it is because he can handle it.
  5. sk7326
    Pitching is the need ... there are no other high need areas. $13M for a decent pitcher is a solid value.
  6. sk7326
    Stats don't purport to ... they measure results ... the physical, mental - whatever - are the stuff that goes into getting results. If measurable results aren't there - then there is a deficiency in the other stuff (physical, mental, general character, body odor, et al.). Players are expert on the inputs (mostly). I am sure Koosman was more liked than Seaver - Seaver's results were better, when the games mattered a lot and when they mattered less. That is mastery of the mental, physical whatever aspects. The "stats don't measure" argument is a terrific strawman - because of course they don't.
  7. sk7326
    You pick up the option because in the Red Sox context, it basically costs them nothing
  8. sk7326
    I take players seriously when they talk about what leadership is, the stuff they have to do to get ready - and what really matters to them ... stuff about the job of playing baseball, which I clearly do not know anything about - that is where the human element it. Results/output can be measured pretty objectively. Clutchy McClutcherson stuff would show up in the results. Guys who soiled their drawers under pressure would be org players in places like Greenville or Altoona.
  9. sk7326
    A fiesta of conformation bias and mythmaking ... David Ortiz is justifiably a legend who had sub .700 OPSs in 7 of the 17 postseason series he played in. (and 3 different ones where he had a batting average below .100 - and one of those series containing one of those legendary clutch moments) Alex Rodriguez is notably unclutch while being absolutely the runaway best player in a World Series run David Price gets called un-clutch while coming out of the pen and saving the highest leverage spot of his career 8 years ago. Players are multitudes - we (and they) see what we want to see.
  10. sk7326
    It's 7 straight K's - which is a small sample, but reflective of the issues predicted when he was promoted. His failure - if it actually does not get better - means nothing for his future projections. It just means that the notion Benintendi was ahead of him in line was sound, and that friends don't let friends use minor league stat lines as conclusive proof of anything.
  11. sk7326
    All it says is that the craft is behind the athleticism - which is totally fine. It also means wait until the craft catches up ...
  12. sk7326
    Ortiz is a legend - and even the legend has had multiple postseason series where he was genuinely awful ... it is hard to discuss clutch because it just degenerates into a fiesta of confirmation bias
  13. sk7326
    Arbitrary end points aside, the total package is fine - the production has not necessarily been reliable, and (since I like baseball) his starts are often not fun to watch. It is maddening but a steal at the price.
  14. sk7326
    I am not sure if the rules are still in place about a 1-game playoff and the wild card game counting as separate "series" - that is, you can re-rack the roster after each one ... if so, those early pre-ALDS games could have some fun very atypical rosters
  15. sk7326
    Buchholz has #1 stuff - and has gotten those results in some good, but not sustained stretches. It's why a team cannot quit him, even though as a fan I'd love to. (his pace of play with runners on base is genuinely horrifying). Medlen was legitimately outstanding ... Ontiveros was lucky. Their respective cases are pretty clear there.
  16. sk7326
    Pomeranz is entirely possible. As I noted above, all three pitchers have good cases to be moved to the pen for the big show - it's an interesting question.
  17. sk7326
    Here is the thing - the analytics people love baseball ... I mean you love baseball - not exactly good enough to play yourself, but want to get in the sport. One of my favorite defenses was something John Hollinger said about NBA analytics: "guys who love basketball so much they want to do math and computer programming to study it" All the observers are doing is measuring what happened - that's it. UZR requires enormous samples (like multi-season ones) to draw any meaningful conclusions about players. But UZR is accurate about what actually happened - the same way that a .300 hitter can go for 0 for 10 ... the 0 for 10 says nothing about the dude's ability to hit, but clearly that stretch was not good. For me - stats are output ... measuring what happened. The stuff you talk about, the watching the games stuff - that is all input ... the thing which causes players to do or to not do stuff. Personally, the information out there now are just tools to give better information about what players are doing - information which has a more realistic basis than RBIs and pitcher wins (let alone saves).
  18. sk7326
    there were some bad outings ... essentally an extreme homerun spike - but the other stuff was same as ever (striking out plenty of dudes)
  19. sk7326
    Ontiveros' season was over 115 IP with an unthinkable .234 BABIP. He had a tiny 13.8% strikeout rate ... basically he was a strike thrower (5.8%) who took advantage of playing in a great pitcher's park Medlen pitched 138 innings and had a .261 BABIP and pretty-in line 23.1% strikeout rate ... his season was short but legitimately outstanding ... injuries suck
  20. sk7326
    #1 was Kris Medlen (2012) #2 was Steve Ontiveros (1994) If you go to FIP- ... rating against peripherals ... to give you some appreciation Pedro Martinez (among starters) had Seasons #1 (1999), #2 (2001), #4 (2000), and #10 (2003) ... two Big Unit seasons rounded out the Top 5 For good measure, Pedro's 1997 season (the pre-Boston one) and 2002 seasons also cracked the Top 25.
  21. sk7326
    For me the two big questions in September (aside from the obvious - are we getting in) is 1. Uehara's health. If he is healthy and good to go - enough that he can retake his late inning role - that simplifies a lot of the bullpen stuff. 2. Joe Kelly. Anybody who has seen him knew that this might be his ultimate destiny. Can he consistently deliver in shorter bursts.
  22. sk7326
    Really a matter of where they are ... now there is real value in getting the division (e.g. automatic ALDS qualification). But management will have an interesting calculation to make. If they are down say 2 games with a week to go but comfortably in the wild card spot, perhaps the impetus to burn through the staff is not quite as great. I don't know. When we get to October (and late September and beyond) you probably shorten the leash across the board - be ready to pull Price and Porcello 4th time through the order, 3rd time through for anybody else.
  23. sk7326
    They are businesses - but they are purchased and sold like pieces of art .. or a first edition comic (if you are into that sort of thing) ... a fun thing for a well-off (in this case exceptionally so) hobbyist to own to be able to say "dude, check this out"
  24. sk7326
    They have a budget - but it is not driven by law (like a hard salary cap) ... it is not driven by affordability (nobody is going to be skipping meals) ... it is driven by how much some very rich people want to put into their plaything. I recognize the constraints you have noted - constraints which the Red Sox have chosen. I also recognize that those constraints are entirely voluntary - and thus have relatively low patience for rationalizations in that direction. I respect that the Red Sox have put a ton of money into the club and the park. Given the prices they charge and the numerous monetizing opportunities they have exploited, it's the least they can do. Now someone called baseball an odd duck as a business - that is because it is a business, but to the owners, it is essentially akin to owning a piece of valuable art. It provides status, it feels cool to own something you like, and you will make a killing whenever you choose to sell it.
  25. sk7326
    He made one 4 inning relief performance in the last baseball game of the season - obviously rules change in elimination scenarios ... and if that means starting Derek Lowe on 2 days rest because there was literally no other choice, you do it and hope for (and perhaps even get) the best.
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