sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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i agree - Betts has sagged from his 3 homeruns in one game pace. Benintendi has also stopped hitting .400 ... the nerve. It's baseball - the production has not sagged meaningfully. Bradley is a more significant drop - but even then he is not giving away at bats.
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i worry less about that - after all, the Sox developmental targets stand outside of the box score in that sort of sense. Crackerjack guys tend to announce themselves right away. This is not like burning a major league contract on a draftee.
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Good player playing well leads to win ... film at 11
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Sox numbers very good here ... at the same time Archer has had the same sort of season Corey Kluber had last season - going to pile up a ton of losses, but when you look really hard - he has actually pitched fairly well. But yes, this is a bad matchup for him.
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1. Not my money - if Benintendi is good, and Henry cries poor, then it's the org not having the same priorities fans do - and it's good to know that 2. Service time is by days in the bigs - you can stop the clock by sending him back and bringing him back in September
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I expect some asset consolidation in the offseason. Shaw is good enough to start at a corner for SOMEBODY. Bradley is under team control for three more seasons - and given what he is that makes him a very valuable guy as a trade piece. The Red Sox have a lot of options there ... * Move Benintendi to CF * Move Betts to CF
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Owens was still getting swings and misses - his career swinging strikes percentage is a pretty hefty 20% (to give you some perspective CC Sabbathia's career is 17.0% in this area. Even with the dropoff this year (Owens is 16.3%, about what Sabbathia was getting in 2010). The problem is that he is just not throwing enough strikes. We all knew coming up there would be an element of pitching backwards with him - but you still have to actually throw your fastball in the strike zone with some regularity. Fortunately it's not too big a deal ... I mean at this point you have to say the rotation is (ducking lightning bolt) fine.
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The situations where bunting (as a sacrifice, not as an attempt to hit) and intentionally walking guys are way, way, way, WAY smaller than the world seems to think.
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If you look at Bogaerts situation - ARB years 2017, 2018, 2019 then into the blue yonder ... a Free Agent entering his Age 27 season. So let's price his 2020 and 2021 seasons at 35M and 38M, which for a guy his age with the revenue jumps you'd project seems like a pretty reasonable guess. So now the arb years ... since almost nobody actually goes to arbitration anymore, the comps analysis for arbs are pretty useless. That said, clearly the Red Sox have leverage here. So let's plug in $10M, $12M, $16M ... if you use a 7% discount rate, this comes to an AAV of $17.4M ($86.7M/5 years). So, a long term deal should be able to give more money up front, while maintaining the AAV (so you pay a fair price to buy a couple years of FA). So something like 5 years at $21.1M per year would get you an equivalent total value ... and be a fair price for the extension. For the Sox, it buys two years of his free agency - for Bogaerts it gets him $20M more up front and still gets him into the FA pool before his 29th birthday.
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take yourself out of a chance to put up a crooked number? no thanks.
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I think we are in basic agreement here - although you are shouting from the mountaintop we share much more loudly.
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It impacts both teams equally which is the saving grace. At the same time - the technology is there to fix it easily (or to really help) - and what you have now is umps going after players and showing them up - when often they are uncontroversially wrong without any way to fix it. Given the huge marginal differences in BA based on count - the mistakes make significant differences, all the time ...
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I think Hanigan could move to the 60 without much trouble - if the Red Sox REALLY wanted to.
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I think they are holding it for trade - since they can use Moncada as a DL replacement, there is no urgency to put him on the 40 for playoff eligibility reasons.
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probably right - although all it takes is converting a 15 day stint to a 60 day one ...
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I am not going to threadjack on that topic - there is a thread which discusses it amply.
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What you have in both cases are national guys who did not need the job per se. And both have watched a lot of baseball and aren't afraid to advance their own opinions - and push a conversation. McDonough was a preferred taste for me since he did the Sox games the way a really smart Red Sox fan from the pre-title years would do it - wry, cynical, but very happy when the Sox proved him wrong.
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I think it can be a little bit of Benintendi, perhaps a little Ortiz and a little bit of Ramirez. Team still has 11 consecutive games on the docket so guys are going to be cycled through a bit.
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He will probably pitch again in September with roster expansion. Johnson would be nice - it would be a good comeback story. Of course, who doesn't root for these kids, even the knuckleheads who fenced laptops in college.
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That is a different kettle of fish - and you are right about that. Remy I think is very fair - he has gotten lazy since McDonough left, but still good.
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Your viewpoint on the manager is fairly sensible - although it is impossible to talk strategy without intersecting with a manager's decisionmaking. That does not extend to balls and strikes of course, since that involves rules enforcement, and basic fairness.
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I predate the BDC(?) merger on this site - so those who have followed my work(?) previously would perhaps be surprise I am making a "human beans" argument here vs a cold analytic argument. But I think this argument here to staple Young to the bench whenever a RHP is out there is kind of silly. There are not many LH starters in the AL East - and it is not reasonable to ask somebody to work like a starter does without any real playing time. The numbers back your argument - but reality of major league baseball as a job and a work environment do not to the same degree. He has to play against LHPs, but you also have to smooth out the workload so he is not being asked to take a test cold.
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Matsuzaka was culture and stubbornness not confidence - Japanese pitchers have a rich history of pitching away from contact and running up huh-yooge pitch counts (see Nomo) ... Matsuzaka was just in that tradition, he saw it as giving in instead of letting his top shelf stuff do its thing.
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You are running counter to what television IS. If you are analyzing plays and strategy - at some point that SHOULD come into second-guessing ... that's the whole point.
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A key stretch coming up now in the next 16 games. 3 at home against KC, who are solid ... and 13 against the Rays, A's and Padres, who are not. There is a chance to get some meaningful separation - at least in the WC chase. 3 out of 4 in DEtroit would have been fun, but they went 5-2 in a week head to head on the road against the teams that matter in the playoff chase.