sk7326

Exactly. And also - this is the tricky part of clutch - these players are all awesome. Yes, Ortiz is better than most hitters in high leverage spots conceptually ... but he also better than most hitters, period. His clutch lore - deserved - is also built by being on (generally) a really good team which created those spots for him a lot. I mean even notorious choker ARod was a monster in the 2009 postseason.

No, although that 15 K one hitter at Seattle gets swept under the rug in the annals of great playoff performances

Options are a powerful thing. Swihart is their highest ceiling option back there - but no problem with slow playing it. Leon deserves the right (I think) to prove that his season was not just a 6 week fluke. (I think it is - but fair to find out for sure)

whatever 39 means - per Chris Rock, the only time I have left to be called young is if I suddenly die. But I do have a 4.5 year old and a 20 month old ... so I will cop to being addled

massive debt crisis, with some handcuffs the mainland has put on them ... but that is another thread

I think it is a reasonable expectation. But the shape of his production over the season (very high variability) leaves him destined to be very frustrating at times at the plate.

Given this is national pride, and there is national narratives - how the US has let PR's economy go to seed might resonate more than baseball's investment in baseball players.

(plaque tactfully avoids 2009-2010)

Like Napoli in 2013 - can Bradley get on base enough during the meh periods to allow the rest of his game to show? I think that's possible. (he won't walk as much - but as a good CF, he offers more to the party outside of offense than Naps ever could)

i don't have a ton of conviction with the 3 through 5 spots ... My larger conviction is Benintendi by midway in the season being this team's best "pure hitter" from the approach persepctive - like an Allen Craig before his body fell to pieces

With all of this evidence - it is safe to say for me that Bradley is just going to be one of those Mike Napoli sort of three outcome (well, not that sort of power, but the general vibe) hitters. There will be about 2 months where he'll be an MVP, and long dry spells where he walks enough to not kill you. The total package will be worth it - but consistency ain't happening.

Buch is what he always was - a tease. It was why he was annoying, why the Sox could keep him cheap and why I could not quit him. If he ever "figured it out" - but that's a big if, and the world has been waiting a decade for it.

2B - Pedroia LF - Benintendi RF - Betts SS - Bogaerts 1B/DH - Ramirez 1B/DH - Young/Moreland 3B - Sandoval C - Somebody CF - Bradley I like having baserunners on when the lineup turns.

It is also the hardest to project generally. Who knew that Hideki Okajima would turn into the best setup man in the American League and then turn into a pumpkin the next season? There is really no meaningful foolproof way to build a bullpen (and if so, Dombrowski sure as hell has not cracked it). There are a lot of live arms in this group - and that is a good place to start.

Kelly's potential as a bridge guy is huge. Catcher is fascinating to me - the ideal solution would be for Swihart to take the job (of the three, he is the only one with all-star raw talent). But he has to earn it on both ends, which is totally legit ... Leon's 6 weeks does not outstrip the remainder of his career, though he has earned the right to try. Vasquez only has to hit a little to be a pretty good starter - but he has not achieved that "little". If he could deliver a .260/.310 sort of line - even a fairly empty one - that would be sufficient. Of course with Vasquez he actual gamecalling is a question. The pitching staff performed much better with Leon - which I am not stupid enough to blame on the catcher wholly, but it is a datapoint which is out there.

Clutch exists for baseball fans - and obviously for some players ... but what is it and how do you describe in a way that is meaningful (and thus something which you can scout for or measure). Those answers have largely been elusive.

Right. This is especially true with pitching. We don't know what the game plan was. (BTW: this extends to leaning too hard on minor league stats generally) Winning is not a primary objective. A pitcher might get lit up, but if the directive was "I want you to throw 35 changeups, 30 curveballs, and don't worry about blasting the fastball too much" - then that's what you have to lean on.

Now you can never account for health - that is the 800 lb gorilla in all these assessments. That and bullpen - which is forever a crapshoot ... very few teams get consistent performance from that year to year. The rotation should be able to survive not having Price for a little while. Rodriguez flashed star ability last season - and if he ended up the team's 2nd best pitcher ... it would be a surprise, but not a crazy one. 3B is an issue - but there are ways around that ... if the Sox want a corner bat badly enough, there is trade inventory, whether it be Bradley or some of their high minor stuff.

At its heart, the WBC is a showcase to expand baseball's reach worldwide. In pro wrestling terms, the US being there to put other countries over is immensely helpful for TV exposure of course. But it's getting fans to care in Italy, Netherlands (and then suddenly having guys play baseball and turn into Guys (see Max Kepler)) that is the real benefit to the game at large. When there is a day that there is meaningful WBC zonal qualifying - that's what I'm looking forward to.

Boo! WBC is better if the US doesn't win

The most important thing about spring training is that it helps the economy of those cities - that's about it.

94-68 On paper this is the best team in the American League.

Clutch pitching is a bit twofold to me - and it really depends on definition and such - For starting pitchers, I tend to believe in a version of clutch pitching. The numbers "with runners on" is meaningful - not so much for the clutch thing - but because the pitcher is working out of the stretch, a meaningful mechanical difference. Working from the stretch is a separate skill. - For closers, largely no. We've been over this a lot. It is why the marginal utlity of a "9th inning guy" is for the most part, pretty low. There is also a ton of noise when dealing with bullpen guys. There is strong statistical evidence that pitchers have a meaningful edge the first time a hitter sees him in a game compared to subsequent looks. That edge creates a lot of value inherently. (and it's why failed starters - who largely cannot turn lineups over - can often become great relievers) There is no doubt that keeping your nerves in a tough situation is a big deal - but for the most part with bullpen guys the numbers won't help that much. Very few relievers sustain performance - it's why a kitchen sink approach to bullpen construction is sensible.

Yeah I don't like prospect for Japanese players. It's true because of rookie eligibility - but it is a bit of a dig to NPB, which is better than any minor league.

A team like Boston only really needs to focus on quality. They can source "worker bees" with money and mid-level prospects. You keep the stars. Devers is tracking, and Benintendi sure flashed a ton of promise to that end.