Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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How exactly was he that much better than Story? Some numbers please!
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That's correct. By the time the 6/162 offer came from the Sox, Boras was reportedly already fielding 200 million + offers. Story got 140 million, Bogaerts got 280 million. That obviously makes no sense and was a product of temporary insanity in the market. Bogaerts got a lot more than Snell, Montgomery, Chapman and Bellinger got in total just one year later! Xander would have to be Nostradamus and Edgar Cayce rolled into one to see he had a 280 million payday coming.
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The parallels between the Lester *negotiations* and the Bogaerts *negotiations* are embarrassingly similar, and suggest that the CBO's had little to do with them. They have Henry's pawprints all over them.
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I think it was reported shortly after Bogaerts signed with San Diego. Not sure by who.
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Hey, they picked a lane. Just so happens it was the Tank Lane...
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True that!
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It hasn't really been established as a myth.
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I think there's a plausible argument that Bogaerts would have stayed with the Sox for the 6/162 he was finally offered by them, if they went to him around the time Story was signed. The main reason I think this is Story's contract of 6/140. When we signed Story we did some statistical comparisons, and Story was just slightly behind Bogaerts in fWAR per games played. Very close. A 6/162 offer would have represented 15% more than Story got. Also, even though Boras was Bogey's agent, Bogey's previous extension was clearly a team-friendly one. Finally, Bogey seemed to really like playing for the Sox. No one will ever know if the 6/162 would have gotten it done, but at the time that would have been a very legit offer. The contract Bogey got was quite possibly the most bonkers contract ever handed out. It was just pure happenstance, I think. Just look at what happened with the other big Boras clients this past offseason. When it's all said and done, the Sox are probably better off they didn't retain Bogey. Out of the big 3, it was Betts and Devers they really needed to keep.
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Max, you seem unfamiliar with the concept of signing a player to an extension before he becomes a free agent.
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They didn't make him a real extension offer, so we'll never know if he would have accepted it or not.
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More than likely he'd opt out. And it was a 2 year guarantee for Giolito, so now we pay double. I'm not a fan of the deal at all.
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Couple other things though: -Giolito pitched to a 7 ERA his last 2 months of action, and we really have no clue why. -If Giolito was healthy and pitching well, folks would be bitching about the fact he'd likely opt out at the end of the season. It was a questionable signing/contract for various reasons.
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You also have to include the extension for Cora in the spending. Plus the money they've invested in pitching development people etc. Stuff we don't see in Cot's Contracts. Henry is still spending, I have to agree. It's just frustrating to see the team continue to have such middling results on the field. And some of the decisions about the rotation are just baffling-like thinking that swapping Sale for Giolito was all that needed to be done.
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Paxton is not out of the question either. He'd probably come real cheap this time.
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Price definitely got paid more for what he'd done than for what he was capable of doing.
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They should absolutely not feel that way about Bello. I think we should be happy if Bello turns out as a solid #3 who takes the ball every 5 days.
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But haven't we agreed that in some situations it's preferable to walk them? The OPS generated by a walk is 1.000. The OPS generated by a homer is 5.000. And that doesn't factor in the impact of men on base. Sure, you can attack a guy's weakness, but if your pitch misses its target just a little and "catches too much plate", you're in big trouble. -
OK, but it's less of an obvious move to pitch around a hitter in those situations when there's a dangerous guy behind him. Honestly I think that's the only real point that everyone should agree on.
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Yep. But the total commitment is about $100 million more. Both players got paid at or close to the top of the market, that's for sure.
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OTOH, if you flip the scenario to a defensive one, there are definitely situations in which you would rather walk the other team's best hitter than pitch to him. The situational factor is pretty key here I think.
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The intent was not a sample of 6 but a granulated sample of 68. In 68 PA's with multiple men on base he has an OPS of .605.
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Where Devers has really struggled this year is hitting with multiple men on base. 1-2 35 PA .698 OPS 1-3 16 PA .558 OPS 2-3 11 PA .705 OPS 1-2-3 6 PA .000 OPS Total 68 PA 142 men on base 1 HR 28 RBI It really has been an issue this year, he has squandered some big opportunities. I expect most of it is randomness, but it has been a thing.
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The simplest thing is to repeat what I said: If bWAR for pitchers is based on ERA, it should just be ignored. As we've discussed many times, ERA is heavily influenced by team factors-defense and bullpen. So why are you using bWAR for pitchers?
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The Angels are the real La La Land of baseball.
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If bWAR for pitchers is based on ERA, it should just be ignored.
