Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Craig's luck in his first go-round has been off the charts bad...
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I hear you. And the Mookie trade does indeed seem like the "inflection point", as they like to call them now.
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There's definitely plenty of blame to go around. I thought Casas's return would give the offense a big boost. Sure looks like I was wrong. And I love Devers, but it's uncanny how bad he has been with multiple runners on base this year, as I documented recently. 2 more chances last night with 2 runners on each time that yielded nothing.
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It's also 3 years in a row of jacksquat help at the deadline. Breslow tried, but it was 3 swings that missed by a yard in Paxton, Garcia and Sims.
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If we focus on this year's team, they were widely projected before the season to be about .500. We had a couple of bursts of hope, one from the great start by the pitchers, another from a hot streak that pushed them 11 games over .500. Now it looks like they'll end up right around where they were projected to be. So does Cora get credit for keeping them afloat as long as he did, or blame for letting them sink. I'm still going to put most of the blame on those who assembled the roster and set the budget.
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Yeah, I'm a Cora fan, but it is starting to become troubling that his teams seem to fall apart after the ASB. I'm not sure how much of that is on him and how much on the bunglers who give the team no help at the trade deadlines.
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Right, somebody like...oh wait.
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Yes, that was cursory. But there have been a bunch of studies done which are easy to find by Googling correlation between MLB payroll and wins. It would be tedious to link and discuss them all. Maybe we can have a thread on it. I saw a quick and dirty analysis which calculated the average payroll ranking of the last 10 best records in MLB and the last 10 World Series winners. For best record the average ranking was 5 point something and for World Series winners it was 7 point something. With 30 teams, those are strong correlations. Obviously there are significant exceptions too. But there's a clear general correlation.
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The only fair way to analyze the correlation between payroll and wins is over a longer period like 5 years, 10 or 20 years. And you know darn well how that will look. The correlation has been documented. Plus there's common sense (Yankees/Dodgers vs. Marlins/Pirates). The only team that has been able to beat the correlation over an extended period is the Rays.
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They can only control the games they play. But I really don't know what your point is. If you're a .500 team you're going to miss the playoffs because too many other teams will have better records.
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For 2024 I think just getting in the playoffs would have been acceptable, yes.
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Judging their record relative to other teams is unfair? Huh? I probably shouldn't have said that about KC and Minny. The only real point I wanted to make was that the AL East being stacked was part of our problem in 2022/2023, but this year the Rays and Jays declined so it should have been easier for us to make it.
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Yeah, we're gonna put Crawford back in the pen once we sign a #1 and a #2 and a closer. moon really gave in to some dreaming in that post.
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Agreed. All good points IMO.
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Do you call it acceptable? I think some context is needed. I consider it unacceptable in view of the Red Sox being the 3rd wealthiest team in the sport, and in view of the expansion of the playoff field to 12.
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Travis Shaw, The Third Baseman That Got Away
Bellhorn04 replied to Bryce Whitlow's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
Nice article, thanks. Just a couple of comments: 1) The trades for Thornburg and Carson Smith were sort of uncharacteristic for Dombrowski, who has been accused of not being good at assembling bullpens, or of simply neglecting them. Unfortunately both trades were total busts. 2) Shaw was not actually unsuccessful for the Red Sox in 2021. He had an .843 OPS in 48 PA's, with 3 HR and 11 RBI. -
He may even have gotten a head start on it.
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Part of me is a little amazed at how upbeat a lot of folks remain about the 2024 team. They're 17-25 in their last 42 games (including the suspended game), for cryin' out loud. That's roughly equivalent to the 24-36 performance of the much-lamented 2020 team. Their run differential is down to +8. They could easily end up under .500 again. The owners and front office have done a phenomenal job tamping down fans' expectations. All that said, nobody wants to just keep spouting or hearing Debbie Downer thoughts. I'm just venting again and I'm itching to say something positive. Hopefully Breslow and company get it together for 2025. Hopefully.
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It's great that the farm is looking much better, of course. But I'm not convinced the guys making the personnel moves are anything but a bunch of bunglers.
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They have become masters at assembling .500ish teams. I'm sure they can do it again next year.
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The way they're going, they have a great chance to make it 78-84 3 years in a row. They have made no progress whatsoever this year as far as being a competitive MLB team. That's a huge failure, and I don't think we should try to sugar-coat it.
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It's in the realm of possibility, but a Mayer trade this offseason would definitely qualify as shocking, to me anyway. The fact he's on the IL again would have to depress his current value a bit, too, I would think.
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There are no simple rules that consistently work. The last repeat World Series winner was in 2000. Last year Texas won it all largely on the strength of their second-tier guys, Eovaldi and Montgomery, coming through, with the big studs deGrom and Scherzer of no help.
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You seem to be able to get away with a lot in the world of clickbaiting!
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My Captain Obvious response would be this: what if we do that, and Skubal gets injured, like a huge chunk of his fellow pitchers have, including the "unicorn" Yamamoto? It would be instant devastation for the Sox.
