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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Did some analysis of the Red Sox 2024 run production, motivated by the idea that our offense hasn't been as good as some of the numbers suggest. Through 150 games we've scored 710 runs, or 4.73 per game. I have this theory that in general the goal in MLB is to score 5 or more runs in a game and give up 4 or less. That's based on the average runs per game in MLB usually coming in at around 4.5 per team. Now, what about extra inning games? I think we have to exclude extra inning runs because with the ghost runner, extra innings are a total crapshoot and run scoring is being inflated a bit. If we eliminate extra inning runs, the 2024 Red Sox have averaged 4.54 runs scored and 4.46 runs allowed per game. They have scored 5 runs or more 63 times, and allowed 4 runs or less 83 times. Wow! That seems to indicate our run prevention has actually done the job a lot more than our run production. Here's a breakdown of runs scored in regulation innings for the 150 games: 10 or more-9 times 9-8 8-9 7-13 6-12 5-12 4-22 3-16 2-20 1-23 0-6
  2. Bellhorn04
    moon, would it be piling on to suggest the $10 million they recouped of Sale's salary went to Hendriks?
  3. Bellhorn04
    White Sox are 36-115. The 1962 Mets are 'credited' with the worst all-time record of 40-120. If the White Sox end up 41-121, which will be the worst? It'll be most losses but not least wins, and not worst winning %. It's sort of unfortunate that the Mets didn't play 162 that year.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Pre-season projections had us as a .500 team. And they were .500 in mid-June. Then they had a hot month that put them 11 games over .500 at the ASB*. Now they're back at .500. I can understand questioning Cora's role in all this. But I think the pre-season projections were an accurate reflection of the strength of the roster. * Note: the suspended game with the Jays is screwing up a lot of the numbers LOL. You won't see us at 11 games over .500 because that game got back-dated.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Our offense has not been as good as the OPS might suggest. Runs scored are the most important number IMHO. And we always have to adjust for the Fenway Factor. If you go by adjusted runs scored I think we're just a little better than average. Does the fact that hitting with RISP is non-sustainable even matter when we're talking about almost a full season? It's not like we're assured it's going to turn around next year.
  6. Bellhorn04
    We're actually 75-75 now.
  7. Bellhorn04
    We're playing .400 ball in our last 55 games.
  8. Bellhorn04
    He might care if it ends up as the difference between the 2024 team playing some postseason games or not.
  9. Bellhorn04
    The story I read, which included quotes from Bogaerts, was that he hadn't made any asks, but was just expecting a good fair negotiation on an extension, and he was floored by their lowball offer. Those weren't his exact words but it was clearly implied.
  10. Bellhorn04
    And then they did the same thing as they did with Lester, coming in with their "real offer" when it was way too late. It's not totally off the wall to suggest those late offers were just for show, as odd as that would seem to be.
  11. Bellhorn04
    I think JH is aware of every little thing that goes into the Red Sox financial picture. There's plenty we're not aware of, though. We don't really know exactly why he's been holding the line so tightly on payroll. The big X factor is the investment of RedBird Capital, an outside group that bought 10% of FSG. RedBird came in when FSG needed a serious cash injection after sustaining losses from COVID. Is RedBird guaranteed a big fat dividend every year regardless of the operation's profit for that year? I have no clue, but I've heard speculation that's the case and it's got a lot to do with the payroll.
  12. Bellhorn04
    In retrospect it's pretty hard not to conclude that Story was signed to replace Bogaerts.
  13. Bellhorn04
    Minnesota has to go play 4 in Cleveland before we meet up. Detroit plays 3 in KC and then goes to Baltimore. So the slim chances are still there. "Every game is huge now!" - Cap'n Obvious
  14. Bellhorn04
    6.4 fWAR 6.3 bWAR This trade is going to end up a 6-7 win difference-maker this year.
  15. Bellhorn04
    They really sold Chris short. Pun very much intended.
  16. Bellhorn04
    At the end of the day, saying we need to add wins is not wrong. It's just not detailed enough for us analytical types.
  17. Bellhorn04
    It's great. The place has been re-energized.
  18. Bellhorn04
    I have noted that you subscribe to the belief that the best reliever should be used when most needed regardless of the inning. I think it's a perfectly valid position and it is shared by others. I have also noted that most managers are still hesitant to do it consistently unless it's the playoffs. And Cora is kind of conventional in that area. Or his attitude is that guys like Kelly have to get it done or they're screwed anyway, because you can't hold leads with only 2 good relievers.
  19. Bellhorn04
    I think Bello must have wrapped up the 2024 E-Rod Golden Rabbit's Paw Award given annually to the Sox starter with the best run support and most fortunate W-L record. He has been pitching a lot better, though.
  20. Bellhorn04
    The way our pen has been going, Cora must sometimes feel like a man playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets in the gun.
  21. Bellhorn04
    I thought notin was being facetious, but maybe not. I will say that Yoshida has been giving glimmers of becoming a steady .800 - .825 OPS guy.
  22. Bellhorn04
    I said I couldn't figure out how our WAR could be so much higher when our run differential was the same. You gave the reasons. It appears that the difference is because of random factors that can't really be controlled for. So the only way to chase more wins is to chase more of what makes up WAR.
  23. Bellhorn04
    If we say we need to add more WAR, it's pretty much the same thing. The ultimate objective of WAR is to translate positive and negative play values into wins.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Oh, I don't feel sorry for him either. He's not dumb, he could see why the Sox have developed a terrible rep for how they treat their CBOs and he took the job anyway. I'm sure he has a good salary. I hope he invests it wisely.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Yes, I think they misled Breslow, and I think he told us so in his carefully coded quote about how his understanding of the organization's objectives had shifted after further discussions.
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