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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    It'd be a simple matter to refine it. Something like: 6 IP, 2 ER 7 IP, 3 ER 9 IP, 4 ER
  2. Bellhorn04
    Maybe so. But the basic idea of tracking how many good starts a starter has had vs. bad starts is not without merit.
  3. Bellhorn04
    I understand where you're coming from. I'm certainly not saying he should be thrown in jail. If the world sees him as a douchebag for the ages from here on out, that should be sufficient.
  4. Bellhorn04
    I'm not ignoring the Spankees at all. As I've said a number of times, the f***ers are harder to get rid of than cockroaches. Soriano and Reynolds - Jesus Christ, how do they pull off this s***. The ironic thing about Soriano is that Cashman promptly came out and denounced the move, saying he was against it. f***ing Spanks.
  5. Bellhorn04
    100% true, OJ. Both of these stats really need refinement. Not elimination, but refinement. Bill James's 'Game Score' for pitchers is, I think, a worthy innovation that should get more attention as time goes on.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Assigning percentages to your chances is actually kind of silly when you think about it. It's just another way of shielding yourself from cold reality. Which is that it's only a binary proposition. It's like the old joke that a woman can't be a little pregnant. We either make it or we don't. As of today I vote yes, we'll make the playoffs. But I'll revisit after the West Coast trip.
  7. Bellhorn04
    That's true, no violence. But I think liars, cheats and sleazeballs can achieve terrible person status if they really work at it.
  8. Bellhorn04
    OK, but the save stat is no wonkier than the win stat for pitchers - maybe even less wonky.
  9. Bellhorn04
    That's good. And hopefully his little friend Buchholz is not far behind him.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Mostly on gut feelings, and adjusted for long-term-Sox-fan mental and emotional damage, I'd put our chances of winning the division now at about 30%, and our chances of making the playoffs at about 70%.
  11. Bellhorn04
    How much doucheness do you have to commit before you get to terrible person? Because A-Rod has to be close.
  12. Bellhorn04
    Unreal, him homering on his first at-bat. But we've seen this type of s*** so many times, you come to expect it.
  13. Bellhorn04
    No point. Just let him f*** things up on his own.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Heh, heh...Keyser was one of the scariest movie characters ever.
  15. Bellhorn04
    The simple truth is, nobody knows s*** about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a f***ing clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Time to change your sig I guess.
  17. Bellhorn04
    jung, I agree with some of this, but you won't be shocked to hear that I disagree with some as well. -One of the big reasons Epstein jettisoned Nomar and acquired Cabrera was because he recognized the team badly needed to improve its infield defence to have a chance at a title. -A big reason Renteria was shipped out and replaced with Gonzalez was Renteria's shockingly bad defence (30 errors). -I think they liked Stephen Drew because he had a decent bat but also because he was a relatively solid defender. And he has been solid most of the time. My pet theory is that the Red Sox see Derek Jeter as the template for an AL shortstop - excellent hitter, makes the routine plays on D - lack of range yes, but so what.
  18. Bellhorn04
    And some Springsteen tunes.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Ah yes, that's why they had Peralta there until they had to trade for Iggy. Peralta was the best hitting shortstop in the league until he got suspended.
  20. Bellhorn04
    For games like this, GameDay is your friend.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Bad case of offensive constipation right now.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Good lord man.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Good analysis. I suppose the typical manager would say 'Hell, yeah, I'd love to use my closer for 4, 5 and 6 out saves all the time but I'm afraid I'd burn him to a crisp.' One other piece of data that might be interesting is something like Papelbon's OPS against for Pitches 1-10, 11-20 and 21-25 etc., to see the effects of fatigue.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Here are the top 10 alltime in saves. But I am ranking them by save %. 1. Rivera 643/721 89.2% 2. Hoffman 601/677 88.8% 3. Percival 358/415 86.3% 4. Wagner 422/491 85.9% 5. R. Myers 347/407 85.3% 6. Eckersley 390/461 84.6% 7. L. Smith 478/581 82.3% 8. Franco 424/525 80.8% 9. Reardon 367/473 77.6% 10. Fingers 341/452 75.4% Papelbon is at 277/316 87.7%
  25. Bellhorn04
    I agree that the save stat, as it is currently defined, is a poor one. However, we need a save stat of some kind, because we need a blown save stat. I think blown saves are actually the crucial stat. If a closer only blows two or three saves over the course of a season it usually means they've done an excellent job.
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