Bellhorn04

100% true, OJ. Both of these stats really need refinement. Not elimination, but refinement. Bill James's 'Game Score' for pitchers is, I think, a worthy innovation that should get more attention as time goes on.

Assigning percentages to your chances is actually kind of silly when you think about it. It's just another way of shielding yourself from cold reality. Which is that it's only a binary proposition. It's like the old joke that a woman can't be a little pregnant. We either make it or we don't. As of today I vote yes, we'll make the playoffs. But I'll revisit after the West Coast trip.

That's true, no violence. But I think liars, cheats and sleazeballs can achieve terrible person status if they really work at it.

OK, but the save stat is no wonkier than the win stat for pitchers - maybe even less wonky.

That's good. And hopefully his little friend Buchholz is not far behind him.

Mostly on gut feelings, and adjusted for long-term-Sox-fan mental and emotional damage, I'd put our chances of winning the division now at about 30%, and our chances of making the playoffs at about 70%.

How much doucheness do you have to commit before you get to terrible person? Because A-Rod has to be close.

Unreal, him homering on his first at-bat. But we've seen this type of s*** so many times, you come to expect it.

No point. Just let him f*** things up on his own.

Heh, heh...Keyser was one of the scariest movie characters ever.

The simple truth is, nobody knows s*** about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a f***ing clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

Time to change your sig I guess.

jung, I agree with some of this, but you won't be shocked to hear that I disagree with some as well. -One of the big reasons Epstein jettisoned Nomar and acquired Cabrera was because he recognized the team badly needed to improve its infield defence to have a chance at a title. -A big reason Renteria was shipped out and replaced with Gonzalez was Renteria's shockingly bad defence (30 errors). -I think they liked Stephen Drew because he had a decent bat but also because he was a relatively solid defender. And he has been solid most of the time. My pet theory is that the Red Sox see Derek Jeter as the template for an AL shortstop - excellent hitter, makes the routine plays on D - lack of range yes, but so what.

And some Springsteen tunes.

Ah yes, that's why they had Peralta there until they had to trade for Iggy. Peralta was the best hitting shortstop in the league until he got suspended.

For games like this, GameDay is your friend.

Bad case of offensive constipation right now.

Good lord man.

Good analysis. I suppose the typical manager would say 'Hell, yeah, I'd love to use my closer for 4, 5 and 6 out saves all the time but I'm afraid I'd burn him to a crisp.' One other piece of data that might be interesting is something like Papelbon's OPS against for Pitches 1-10, 11-20 and 21-25 etc., to see the effects of fatigue.

Here are the top 10 alltime in saves. But I am ranking them by save %. 1. Rivera 643/721 89.2% 2. Hoffman 601/677 88.8% 3. Percival 358/415 86.3% 4. Wagner 422/491 85.9% 5. R. Myers 347/407 85.3% 6. Eckersley 390/461 84.6% 7. L. Smith 478/581 82.3% 8. Franco 424/525 80.8% 9. Reardon 367/473 77.6% 10. Fingers 341/452 75.4% Papelbon is at 277/316 87.7%

I agree that the save stat, as it is currently defined, is a poor one. However, we need a save stat of some kind, because we need a blown save stat. I think blown saves are actually the crucial stat. If a closer only blows two or three saves over the course of a season it usually means they've done an excellent job.

In 2012 Johnson only blew 3 saves in 54 opportunities, for a 94.4% success rate. This year he has blown 9 out of 48, for an 81.2% rate.

That's right. Wow, Johnson blew his 9th save last night. That is a huge number. The bad seasons of Rodney and Johnson are a big reason we're ahead of the Rays and the Orioles in the standings.

Mind you it was a complete disgrace that Bailey was on the team throughout the season. He was as washed-up as washed-up gets. We did not have a good bench that year. Everything but.

I’m fascinated by the topic of closers. Why is that? I don’t know, maybe it’s because of Red Sox history. In 1986 we lost the World Series because Calvin Schiraldi and Bob Stanley couldn’t close it out with a 2-run lead, 2 outs and the bases empty. Schiraldi actually had two blown saves in that game, amazingly enough. Bob Stanley also played a part in us losing the playoff game to the Yankees in 1978. So he's got quite a lot going for him as far as how Sox fans remember him. Same with Schiraldi. Then in 2003 we lost the ALCS because Grady didn’t like his Closer by Committee options. So then they fired Grady and they signed Keith Foulke. And lo and behold, Foulke did an incredible job in 2004 and was a huge factor in beating the Yankees and bringing it home for the first time in my 35 years of fandom. In 2007 we won it again, and not coincidentally, Papelbon pitched 10.2 scoreless innings that postseason. Some other things that stand out for me about closers... Pressure – is the pressure of being a closer really that great, or is it overrated by fans and the media? I think the answer is that the pressure really is that great in important games, especially playoff games. In 1986 when we pulled off an amazing comeback against the Angels, the closer who blew the series was a man named Donnie Moore. The failure haunted Moore the rest of his days. In 1989 he committed suicide, after first shooting his wife, who survived. Dennis Eckersley. Fantastic, Hall of Fame career. But the enduring image for me, the one that’s been replayed a million times, is one-legged Kirk Gibson taking him out of the park to win Game One of the 1988 WS. Eck also gave up a huge, season-turning home run to Roberto Alomar in the 1992 ALCS. Rivera. The best closer of all time. But two blown saves by Mo in 2001 and 2004 prevented the Yankees from adding two more titles.