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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Not much consolation, but Andrew Miller's 32-pitch outing last night was costly for the Yankees tonight, as they tried to close the game with Chris Martin and Betances and the Jays scored 3 in the 8th to win.
  2. Bellhorn04
    A common experience of tenement living and other similar style housing in New York City (and other cities) during the manufacturing boom of the late 19th and early 20th century. Apartments were built similar in design with one's bedroom under another's. Thus, it was normal to hear a neighbor removing shoes and hearing them hit the floor above. As one shoe made a sound hitting the floor, the expectation for the other shoe to make a similar sound was created.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Don't forget that there is no discount on Lester's salary this year. I think that's where the difference in our numbers probably is.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Here are my calculations using a 5% discount factor. PORCELLO ACTUAL DISCOUNT NPV 2016 20.13 0.95 19.17 2017 20.13 0.91 18.25 2018 21.13 0.86 18.25 2019 21.13 0.82 17.38 82.50 73.05 LESTER 2015 20.00 1.00 20.00 2016 25.00 0.95 23.81 2017 25.00 0.91 22.68 2018 27.50 0.86 23.76 2019 27.50 0.82 22.62 2020 30.00 0.78 23.51 155.00 136.37 136.37 = 186.7% of 73.05
  5. Bellhorn04
    Now we're getting silly. What I said was 'total amount at risk is almost double'.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Lester's career ERA is 3.60. He is clearly a #2 pitcher by the definitions that I've been seeing on this thread.
  7. Bellhorn04
    I realize that. There are other differences too, like their ages. The total amount at risk is close to double. That's just a fact.
  8. Bellhorn04
    What? I wasn't comparing them at all. Lester's deal is double Porcello's. I'm questioning the assertion that was clearly made that Lester is in the Top 10.
  9. Bellhorn04
    Not sure why it's surprising. What other pitchers comparable in the least to Porcello has Ben inked since he became GM?
  10. Bellhorn04
    Is Lester one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball? Based on what numbers?
  11. Bellhorn04
    The hatefest goes on.
  12. Bellhorn04
    In that article it says total MLB payrolls will have grown from about $3 billion in 2012 to $4 billion in 2016. I calculate that as an average inflation rate of about 7.5%.
  13. Bellhorn04
    iortiz, you've referenced FanGraphs several times now in your arguments about Porcello. But did you read this FanGraphs article that Kimmi linked to earlier? It was written before Porcello signed the extension. It covers a lot of the stuff we've been talking about. It projects his free agent payday at 6 years/$108 million. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-upcoming-enormous-payday/
  14. Bellhorn04
    Nice.
  15. Bellhorn04
    Ew. I like coffee with Bailey's myself. Very tasty indeed.
  16. Bellhorn04
    And relative to other Yankee fans, Jacko only qualifies as moderately obnoxious.
  17. Bellhorn04
    If he didn't drink his way out of town in 2004 that might be different. One of the all-time funniest splits: in 2004 D-Lowe had a 4.50 ERA in night games and an 8.26 ERA in 10 day games.
  18. Bellhorn04

    Golf

    Bellhorn04 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Other Sports

    No you're absolutely right, Kimmi. No sense denying it. Part of the reason I watch is that some of the women players are smokin' hot.
  19. Bellhorn04
    D-Lowe.
  20. Bellhorn04

    Golf

    Bellhorn04 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Other Sports

    Canadian golf fans now have a potential star to root for in the women's game. 17-year old Brooke Henderson finished third in last week's event and is leading after the second round of this week's. Female golfers really seem to mature faster than males do. Much has made been made about 21-year old Jordan Spieth reaching the top of the men's game. But the #1 female player, Lydia Ko, just turned 18. I watch a lot of LPGA golf because, well, I'm a golf junkie, but the LPGA tour is really happening, in my opinion.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Ah yes, the sweet science of destroying the brain matter of a fellow human. One of the last fights I watched the loser died a few days later from his injuries. Not a joke.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Lester gets his first Cubs win with 7 shutout innings.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Well, this should be interesting. Every single hitter in the Yankee lineup bats left-handed (including the switches).
  24. Bellhorn04
    I think there is more that went into Porcello's contract than just projections of his performance. Let's say for argument's sake that Porcello's true value right now is actually $16-17 million a year. I don't think too many people would argue with that. So the question is, why would they overpay him by $3-4 million a year? One of the answers, as has already been given, is in the number of years in the contract. The other aspect is the issue of what it would cost the Sox to replace Porcello for next year. To trade for a comparable pitcher they have to give up prospects and then pay the guy. To sign a comparable pitcher as a free agent they have to give up a draft pick and pay the guy-likely overpay. Personally I think that people who don't like the deal are getting a little hung up on the $20 million number and aren't able to get past that.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Bill James works for the Sox, right? I'm sure he gave them some projections for the years 2016-2019. His 2015 projections for Porcello are available. 209 innings, which is an increase. James also sees a modest improvement in K/BB ratio. Here's the funny part though - projected ERA? 4.00 on the nose.
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