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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    I like the way you put that.
  2. Bellhorn04
    My point with the oppositional thing was limited to analyzing Ortiz's postseason OPS of .962. That may not seem much higher than his regular season OPS of .926, but if you consider that he's also facing better pitching in the postseason, I think you can make a reasonable case that the margin is greater.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Personally I think there may be a number of issues that haven't been fully addressed in any analytics of clutch. The one that jumps out at me is whether sufficient consideration is given to 'season leverage' vs. 'game leverage'. In other words, an at-bat in the first inning of a crucial game in September might reasonably be argued to be higher pressure than a late and close at-bat in April. I think we may see the analytics of clutch significantly revamped at some point.
  4. Bellhorn04
    I'm not really sure what you're saying. Oppositional strength is always a big factor whether it's individual or team performance, in any sport.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Well, so much for Cliff Lee thoughts. He is reporting soreness in same part of elbow as last year.
  6. Bellhorn04
    I will counter with some admittedly raw 'strength of opposition' data. Ortiz has played in 17 postseason series. I tabulated where each of the 17 opposing staffs finished in their league that year in ERA+. The average standing was 4.0 out of an average of 15 teams. This confirms that the overall pitching he was facing was better than what he faced in the regular season. Secondly, the pitching faced in the postseason would be further strengthened by all the off days which allow teams to completely eliminate their #5 starter, and to use their #4 starter probably only twice if they play the maximum number of postseason games. Overall strength of relief pitching would also be increased by the additional days of rest. I would really like to someone tackle some strength of opposition adjustments for the postseason. The data is all there, it wouldn't be that difficult.
  7. Bellhorn04
    But the analytics people won't use postseason numbers because the samples aren't big enough for them. If they allowed them they'd have to concede that a guy like Ortiz has been exponentially better in the postseason than guys like Bagwell and Swisher and Teixeira, all very strong regular season performers.
  8. Bellhorn04
    But I can't think of any other player since I've been watching baseball that has had more dramatic game-winning hits than Ortiz.
  9. Bellhorn04
    I have a possible answer to this too. The 'ratcheting up' may not be something entirely under the player's control. It may be something that happens at a more subliminal level, an animal level, the flow of adrenalin and all that. It's said that people in extreme situations have found their physical strength increases. I can come up with answers to almost all these questions. My answers may be total BS, of course.
  10. Bellhorn04
    I would agree with this as a general principle, but I think there can still be degrees of separation between major league players. We have already talked about some clear cases of certain players not being able to handle the spotlight of a big market team or a big contract as well as others do, irrespective of talent levels.
  11. Bellhorn04
    I have a possible answer for the 'late and close' number. It may have a lot to do with the pitchers he is facing in those situations. Many times in a late close game, the opposing manager gets his toughest lefty reliever specifically ready for Ortiz. That is one problem with some of these numbers is that they don't factor in 'strength of opposition', IMO.
  12. Bellhorn04
    Swihart had a 3-run jack today off Bud Norris.
  13. Bellhorn04
    Kimmi, here's something interesting I found looking at Papi's career splits: Tie Game .963 (OPS) Score Within 1 Run .960 Within 2 Runs .955 Within 3 Runs .946 Within 4 Runs .937 More than 4 Runs .864 It's interesting how his OPS drops a bit as the game margin increases, and then drops a lot in one-sided games. It doesn't prove anything, but it does at least suggest that his focus is a bit sharper when the game is closer. In a lot of those one-sided games you're facing the dregs of the other team's staff, too, so you'd think that's where you could really fatten up. But if you've watched a lot of Sox games you do get the feeling in those blowout situations that Papi just wants to hack away and get the at-bat over with, to conserve himself, perhaps.
  14. Bellhorn04
    I don't know about you Kimmi, but I smell another Boy Scout camp.
  15. Bellhorn04
    Absolutely. Choking is a big factor in golf and it's pretty much out in the open. After all, it's the game where many players have gotten 'the yips'.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Good post. Nice touch of irony there.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Now I think we are much closer to being on the same page. I have come to think that 'clutch' means 'not choking' rather than raising one's game, as you say. So you can only be 'clutch' in comparison to competitors who are 'choking' more than you are.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Right. Then again, A-Rod's regular season OPS is 125 points higher than Jeter's. I also have to wonder about that great postseason A-Rod had in 2009. It was his finest hour, but considering what we know about the guy, suspicions are raised.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Cliff Lee pitched 2 scoreless today. Let's do it!
  20. Bellhorn04
    Just for fun I will base the decision on their career numbers with bases loaded and 2 outs: Ortiz 330/378/659 A-Rod 270/359/574 Jeter 321/407/389 So Ortiz over A-Rod is an obvious pick. I'd take Jeter over A-Rod because you only need one run and he has a higher OBP. If the Yanks were down more than one run you'd have to consider A-Rod because of the higher SLG.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Exactly. There is no good whatsoever that can come out of it.
  22. Bellhorn04
    You believe that choking is real, though, right?
  23. Bellhorn04
    You're concerned about his interleague numbers, though, right?
  24. Bellhorn04
    Fred, please stop bringing up what happened on other boards here. Several people have already said they don't want to hear about it.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Here's an example of where stats can be of little help: what impact would moving to Boston have on Cole Hamels's numbers? How much does that 4.54 ERA against AL teams mean? Would Hamels be 'uncomfortable' in Boston?
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