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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    I don't think it's necessarily a mental connection. sk7326 is Mr. Reasonable of this forum, like thirtysomething was on the old forum.
  2. Bellhorn04
    These are such dead horses...we've killed a whole herd of horses now. But what can you do, there's nothing else to talk about at the moment.
  3. Bellhorn04
    1. We don't really know what Henry was thinking last offseason. He did ultimately offer Lester 6 years and 135 million. Whether that was just for PR reasons, who knows? 2. They put themselves in the position of having such a mediocre staff by cutting loose 2 #2 starters in Lester and Lackey, and not replacing them with anything comparable. Then they compounded the risk by putting together a bad bullpen.
  4. Bellhorn04
    What exactly does this mean?
  5. Bellhorn04
    I don't know exactly how much of the 2015 pitching staff can be put on ownership and how much on Ben. We'll never know all the behind the scenes machinations. I tend to think a lot of it was on Ben. You raise some interesting points in the rest of your post.
  6. Bellhorn04
    You sound a lot older now.
  7. Bellhorn04
    But he obviously didn't have that luxury, as far as JH was concerned. The 2015 opening day staff felt like it was Buchholz, Koji, Tazawa, and a bunch of names picked from a hat.
  8. Bellhorn04
    I think the 2015 team was a combination of bad decisions and bad breaks. I think a bad job was done putting together the 2015 pitching staff. There was really no reason for a team with the Sox resources to go into the season with a staff that questionable. That will always be my main beef with the job done by Ben.
  9. Bellhorn04
    This thread begs the question: 'How many different ways can you call someone an idiot?'
  10. Bellhorn04
    So you're saying that over the course of the season, the maximum number of situations that call for a sac bunt are 5?
  11. Bellhorn04
    No kidding.
  12. Bellhorn04
    Baseball seems to be the only sport where fans and analysts keep thinking of all these ways to build a better mousetrap.
  13. Bellhorn04
    In truth I don't really disagree very much with any of what you're saying. I just always seem to find a counterpoint I can argue, the devil's advocate thing. I think I also have a tendency to look at things from the manager's perspective, to assume he's got some sort of thought process behind what he's doing.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Kimmi, the numbers in this article are averages for all games including blowouts. The inclusion of blowouts is why the average leverage factor goes down slightly in the top of the 9th. If it's a one-run game, the leverage factor will be higher in the top of the 9th than in the top of the 8th.
  15. Bellhorn04
    I agree, but again it's a case where the manager can't do this as much as he'd like to. Otherwise the closer will get burned out. It's a long season. I think Dojji made a good point. If you don't have more than 2 relievers you can trust to put up zeros consistently you're pretty much screwed no matter what you do. If you have a bullpen like KC you have a guy like Herrera you can bring in for one of those 7th inning jams, and you still have a Madson and a Davis out there behind him.
  16. Bellhorn04
    She posted on Feb 9 so she's been absent from the board for one day so far.
  17. Bellhorn04
    I said it's just one way to look at it. Just trying to add to the conversation, that's all. You know it's impossible to definitely prove one way or the other.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Well, major league teams only scored an average of 3.95 earned runs a game in 2015, so the management of pitching seems to be pretty effective overall. Just one way to look at it.
  19. Bellhorn04
    This would mean that, hypothetically, the closer would have to be prepared to come in the game any time from the 6th inning on, maybe even earlier. That could be beneficial in one particular game, but over the course of the season I'm not sure it would work out so well.
  20. Bellhorn04
    He's correct, the leverage factor is higher on average in the 9th because the Win Probability factor for the team that's ahead keeps getting higher as the number of remaining outs decreases.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Not me. I still hold out hope for him.
  22. Bellhorn04
    I also heard that E-Rod has figured out his pitch-tipping thing and it's fixed. It's a beautiful time of year.
  23. Bellhorn04
    That's a good example, so maybe we can say Larussa bought into part of the optimal order theory. But when I look at the game logs of the 2011 postseason, Larussa's last hurrah, he had Furcal hitting leadoff, after a .298 OBP season, and of course Pujols in the 3 spot. So he didn't follow the theory very systematically.
  24. Bellhorn04
    And one of them is just plain Chris Young.
  25. Bellhorn04
    But what specific examples are there of LaRussa's optimization?
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